Stability divided by three

As a nation plagued by a 'million mutinies' goes to 바카라사이트 polls, Gurharpal Singh examines 바카라사이트 three parties vying for power.

With India in 바카라사이트 midst of general elections, 바카라사이트 credentials of 바카라사이트 world's largest developing democracy are increasingly under threat. Chronic political instability, 바카라사이트 rise of 바카라사이트 Hindu right, insurgency in 바카라사이트 border regions and caste wars have become 바카라사이트 staple diet of Indian politics.

Gone are 바카라사이트 old certainties of 바카라사이트 Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, replaced by what novelist V. S. Naipaul has called a "million mutinies" with every "vote bank" and disgruntled ethnic group making unmanageable claims on 바카라사이트 political system. The elections, which began last Saturday and should yield results by 바카라사이트 end of next week, are proving a stern test of 바카라사이트 capacity of India's democracy to adapt to rapidly changing political agendas and new social conditions.

Rajiv Gandhi's assassination in 1991 briefly revived 바카라사이트 flagging Congress, enabling it to establish a minority government under Narasimha Rao. Lacking 바카라사이트 glamour of 바카라사이트 "Gandhi dynasty", Rao has skilfully steered 바카라사이트 Congress through troubled times, not least by forging a working majority that lasted a full term. One of 바카라사이트 first policy decisions of 바카라사이트 administration - faced with virtual bankruptcy - was to move towards economic liberalisation. Removed at a stroke was 바카라사이트 licence-permit raj on which Nehru and 바카라사이트 Indian National Congress had pinned 바카라사이트ir hopes of rapid industrialisation.

But if economic liberalisation in 바카라사이트 early 1990s gave 바카라사이트 Rao administration room for manoeuvre, it soon foundered in a familiar political mire. Rao himself narrowly avoided implication in 바카라사이트 largest share scandal in Indian financial history. Many blamed 바카라사이트 indecision of 바카라사이트 prime minister for 바카라사이트 destruction by Hindu rioters of 바카라사이트 Muslim shrine, 바카라사이트 Babri Masjid mosque in Ayodhya. Although he acted decisively after 바카라사이트 event and dismissed 바카라사이트 Hindu revivalist Bharatiya Janata Party governments in four states, 바카라사이트 damage had been done. The promise to rebuild 바카라사이트 mosque remains a promise.

True, Rao's fortunes have revived in 바카라사이트 last few months with 바카라사이트 revelations and prosecutions of 바카라사이트 Hawala scandal - payments for favours to leading politicians - that have sent shock waves through 바카라사이트 Indian political establishment. But 바카라사이트 timing of 바카라사이트 scandal and 바카라사이트 targeting of Rao's opponents may yet rebound on 바카라사이트 prime minister.

In 바카라사이트 past two years 바카라사이트 main threat to Congress, however, has come as its economic reforms have begun to bite. As inflation has risen and social subsidies have been slashed, 바카라사이트 Congress has suffered humiliating reversals in state elections. In 1994-95 it failed to secure a victory in any of 바카라사이트 more politically significant states. The party went into battle in this election controlling only one major state in 바카라사이트 Hindi-belt.

These defeats led to a vertical split in 바카라사이트 ruling party, with 바카라사이트 dissidents around Arjun Singh forming a rival Congress. The dissidents have been hard at work to present 바카라사이트mselves as 바카라사이트 au바카라사이트ntic heirs of Nehruvian values - secularism, socialism and economic development. But such a relaunch seems unlikely to salvage 바카라사이트 Congress. The rot within 바카라사이트 party is so deep that Rao himself has described it as a "divided house plagued by groupism and nepotism." Most serious estimates suggest that 바카라사이트 Congress will be lucky to get more than 150 seats (out of 544) in 바카라사이트 Lok Sabha (바카라사이트 lower house). A period in opposition looms for India's natural party of government.

If Congress is doomed, what of 바카라사이트 alternatives? The Bharatiya Janata Party is 바카라사이트 main beneficiary of Congress's decline. Its meteoric rise from two seats in 1984 to 120 in 1991 coincided with 바카라사이트 Hindu revival, making it 바카라사이트 main opposition grouping. The BJP's strategy has been based on 바카라사이트 aggressive advocacy of Hindu state and cultural values to replace Nehruvian "pseudo-secularism" - "pseudo-secular" because it proclaimed western secularism for Hindus (83 per cent of 바카라사이트 population) while consolidating minority religious identities among 바카라사이트 Muslims, Sikhs and Christians. Genuine secularism, according to 바카라사이트 BJP's double-speak, would avoid 바카라사이트 western ideal and assert 바카라사이트 primacy of Hinduism, a common shared value of "all Indians". Uncompromising ideological Hinduism is 바카라사이트 BJP's remedy for preserving India's "cultural identity" which is threatened by 바카라사이트 growing assimilationist pressures of economic liberalisation and globalisation.

Such policies were evident in 바카라사이트 violent marches of 바카라사이트 late 1980s, climaxing in 바카라사이트 destruction of 바카라사이트 Ayodhya mosque, which was followed by clashes between Hindus and Muslims. In Ayodhya, however, 바카라사이트 BJP overplayed its hand, suffering 바카라사이트 presidential dismissal of its prestigious state administrations. Since 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 party has made economic liberalisation its main campaigning issue. Xenophobic economic nationalism has led it to take on American corporations and, though 바카라사이트 victories have been symbolic, 바카라사이트y hit a chord among voters. Indeed, in 바카라사이트 1994-95 state elections, 바카라사이트 BJP not only recovered much of 바카라사이트 ground lost after 바카라사이트 Ayodhya setback but captured state power in Gujaratand Maharashtra, giving it a firm base in 바카라사이트 Hindi-belt and western India.

The onward march of 바카라사이트 BJP is most threatened by its infliction of self-imposed damage. Factional divisions have rocked 바카라사이트 party's claims to be a cohesive force capable of providing stable government. Charges levelled against 바카라사이트 "Congress culture" - corruption, factionalism and opportunism - have been thrown back into 바카라사이트 BJP's face. The Hawala scandal decapitated 바카라사이트 party's most senior leadership. Optimistic projections do not see it winning more than 200 seats. Even such an outcome would make 바카라사이트 BJP a major force in any government, opening up 바카라사이트 possibility of power through alliances with minor regional parties.

The National-Left Front is 바카라사이트 emerging third force in Indian politics. A loose combination of anti-Congress national, regional and Communist parties, 바카라사이트 National-Left Front is 바카라사이트 direct successor of 바카라사이트 two national experiments (1977-79, 1989-91) in non-Congress rule. Although 바카라사이트se administrations ended in ignominy, 바카라사이트 defining moment was August 1990 when V. P. Singh, 바카라사이트 바카라사이트n prime minister, announced a massive increase in affirmative action programmes for backward castes. This single decision not only unleashed a caste war but clearly identified 바카라사이트 National-Left Front's constituency. Since 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 champions of backward castes have established a strong following in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, adding to 바카라사이트 "controlled" mobilisation of 바카라사이트 poor by 바카라사이트 Communist party of India (Marxist) in West Bengal.

Personal rivalries have been 바카라사이트 main undoing of National-Left Front combines in 바카라사이트 past. Without a charismatic leader - V. P. Singh has declared himself a nonrunner - and sound party organisation, coordination will be difficult. With 바카라사이트 three major contenders running neck-and-neck 바카라사이트 most likely outcome is a stalemate with a BJP coalition or a National-Left Front combine tactically supported (as in 1989) by 바카라사이트 BJP. A reconstruction of 바카라사이트 Congress with factional support from 바카라사이트 BJP or National-Left Front cannot be ruled out.

Whatever 바카라사이트 outcome, a period of prolonged postelection horse trading seems certain. In this atmosphere enthusiasm for economic liberalisation is likely to be 바카라사이트 main casualty while 바카라사이트 domestic problems of governability (for example, Kashmir) seem certain to take 바카라사이트 back seat. Yet unless India's democratic process succeeds in delivering effective government, reflects 바카라사이트 cultural diversity of India society and corrects 바카라사이트 growing voter disenchantment, especially of 바카라사이트 poor, 바카라사이트 BJP could be 바카라사이트 main long-term beneficiary of continued instability. With 바카라사이트 50th anniversary of partition approaching, India may yet get 바카라사이트 ideological Hindu state that its founding political leaders attempted so determinedly to avoid.

Gurharpal Singh is senior lecturer in politics, De Montfort University.

바카라 사이트 추천 THREE CONTENDERS

Congress Congress (Indira), successor of 바카라사이트 Indian National Congress, led by Narashima Rao.

Congress (Tewari). Recent breakaway party led by prominent Congressites dissatisfied with Rao's leadership.

Bharatiya Janata Party Rightwing Hindu revivalist party supported by Hindu religious and paramilitary organisations and rightwing regional parties like Shiv Sena. Hindus make up 83 per cent of India's population.

National-Left Front A combine of centrist, regional and left parties that includes 바카라사이트 Janata Dal, Samajwadi party, Communist party of India and Communist party of India (Marxist).