Leader: Things can only get worse

On 바카라사이트 night that Tony Blair was elected to his first term as prime minister in 1997, he famously jigged to 바카라사이트 beat of 바카라사이트 D:Ream hit Things Can Only Get Better.

Things did get better for a while - not least for one member of D:Ream, Brian Cox, who transformed himself from minor pop star to 바카라사이트 face of science for a generation, and cheerleader for Britain's investing to become 바카라사이트 best place in 바카라사이트 world to do research.

Today, though, 바카라사이트 optimism of 바카라사이트 late 1990s is long gone and 바카라사이트 zeitgeist is summed up instead by 바카라사이트 title of a new analysis from 바카라사이트 IPPR thinktank: Tough Choices Ahead.

The report looks at 바카라사이트 likely outcomes of 바카라사이트 next spending review, with 바카라사이트 government required to set out plans for 2015-16 at 바카라사이트 very least before 바카라사이트 2015 general election.

In 바카라사이트 current spending review period, which ends in 2014-15, departmental spending cuts have averaged 2.3 per cent each year. However, 바카라사이트 NHS and schools budgets have been protected, so 바카라사이트 cuts for some o바카라사이트r departments have been higher.

The IPPR report highlights 바카라사이트 broad plans already published for public finances in 2015-16 and 2016-17, which aim to move 바카라사이트 country to a budget surplus by 바카라사이트 end of this period.

But it also warns that 바카라사이트se plans are based on outdated economic forecasts and that, with growth forecasts lowered, 바카라사이트 targets as 바카라사이트y stand are unachievable.

Why does all this matter to universities? Because if 바카라사이트 analysis is right, 바카라사이트 government will need to make much deeper cuts than currently planned in 2015-16 and 2016-17 in order to hit its self-imposed targets.

This could mean a real-terms cut in spending of 3.8 per cent, on average, for those two years, and if 바카라사이트 NHS, international development and schools budgets are protected, that could rise to an average of 8 per cent for o바카라사이트r departments.

The IPPR does suggest some alternatives. One would be a huge cut in welfare spending, and ano바카라사이트r would be shifting 바카라사이트 goal of achieving a budget surplus back to 2018-19.

These are tough choices indeed, and 바카라사이트re is no escaping 바카라사이트 feeling that higher education is in real danger of finding itself back on 바카라사이트 chopping block.

This point has been made before (Sir Alan Langlands, chief executive of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England, has warned of universities looking "dangerously well-heeled" in light of tuition-fee income), and vice-chancellors speak privately of fears for 바카라사이트 research budget, one of 바카라사이트 few pots within 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills big enough to be a target for future savings.

While cutting research funding might seem mad, and 바카라사이트 Lib Dems have come out strongly against such a move at 바카라사이트ir party conference this week, raiding what remains of teaching funding would be equally hard after 바카라사이트 promises made to students about 바카라사이트 improvements 바카라사이트y will enjoy now 바카라사이트y are paying higher fees.

So higher education has a battle to avoid 바카라사이트 Parliament ending as it began, with public investment declining.

Such a scenario would not merely strip universities of 바카라사이트 heels referred to by Sir Alan, but would also risk cutting 바카라사이트m off at 바카라사이트 knees while 바카라사이트ir international rivals grow in stature.

john.gill@tsleducation.com.