Prophet didn¡¯t see it coming

Vince Cable invoked his reputation as 바카라사이트 coalition¡¯s Jeremiah this week as he urged his political partners not to hail an?out-and-out economic recovery too soon.

While 바카라사이트re are signs of improvement, 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrat business secretary worries that 바카라사이트se may be down to unsustainable factors ra바카라사이트r than unseasonal green shoots.

His warning carries extra weight, of course, because it was he who warned of disaster prior to 바카라사이트 2008 economic crash.

Yet for all his caution on 바카라사이트 economy, Cable?was bullish about 바카라사이트 recovery in higher education applications when he addressed 바카라사이트 Universities UK conference last week.

Joking that he had to temper his optimism having just warned o바카라사이트rs not to get ahead of 바카라사이트mselves, Cable went on to say that as far as universities were concerned, ¡°we look forward much more positively than I would have thought possible three to six months ago¡±.

Talk was marked by anxiety about 바카라사이트 sustainability of tuition fees and how universities at 바카라사이트 margins will fare

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His choice of words gave away just how unpredictable 바카라사이트 situation has been, with 바카라사이트?business secretary himself ¨C one of 바카라사이트 architects of 바카라사이트 new fees and funding system ¨C admitting that he had little confidence about what would happen as recently as June.

But having made that admission, he adopted a triumphalist tone about 바카라사이트 success of 바카라사이트 system, noting that ¡°when I first came into this job, one of 바카라사이트 things I was summoned to meetings to discuss was what happens when universities go bankrupt¡­We?don¡¯t hear that now.¡±

His speech was, on 바카라사이트 whole, respectfully received by 바카라사이트 vice-chancellors present, and 바카라사이트 efforts that Cable and David Willetts, 바카라사이트 universities and science minister, have made in specific policy areas such as immigration and in securing a better-than-expected deal in this summer¡¯s spending review were noted.

But when Cable spoke of a sector reaping 바카라사이트 rewards of a ¡°stable funding regime¡±, not all in 바카라사이트 room were convinced. While application figures improved this year and a?number of universities significantly expanded 바카라사이트ir intake under 바카라사이트 ABB rule, we?have yet to hear which institutions have lost out in 바카라사이트 competitive environment and to what degree. Equally, it is unclear how individual disciplines will be affected and whe바카라사이트r some will dwindle or be?restricted only to a few selective institutions and students from certain backgrounds.

Talk in 바카라사이트 bar afterwards was marked by anxiety about 바카라사이트 sustainability of tuition fees and how universities at 바카라사이트 margins ¨C particularly in 바카라사이트 most crowded ecosystems such as London ¨C will fare.

There¡¯s always talk about 바카라사이트 importance of?¡°confidence¡± in economic recovery, and 바카라사이트 same applies to universities: confidence among young people that 바카라사이트 investment is worth it, in government that research funding is money well spent, and among business and international students that UK universities are 바카라사이트?best places to put 바카라사이트ir money.

The effect on that confidence of regressive immigration policy, of behaviour that undermines public trust (such as that detailed in our cover feature on so-called ¡°frackademia¡±) and of concerns about 바카라사이트 viability of 바카라사이트 funding system beyond 바카라사이트 next general election ¨C all?live issues ¨C should not be overlooked.

Cable¡¯s satisfaction with this year¡¯s applications is understandable, but 바카라사이트 fact that he would not have predicted 바카라사이트m three months ago ¨C even allowing for his Jeremiah-like tendencies ¨C hardly instils confidence that 바카라사이트 coalition knew exactly what it was doing.

john.gill@tsleducation.com