Red starry eyes

After bitterly rejecting communism just a short time ago, Russia and eastern Europe are falling back into its secure and familiar embrace. Harry Shukman explains an unlikely reconciliation.

The pluralist politics and market economies for which 바카라사이트 peoples of 바카라사이트 former communist bloc seemed to yearn in 바카라사이트 closing years of 바카라사이트 Soviet era are now established facts. Yet, paradoxically, new and old communists have almost everywhere recently gained electoral strength. In Poland, where in 바카라사이트 heyday of Solidarity 90 per cent of 바카라사이트 population was claimed as Roman Catholic, a communist has been elected president in place of 바카라사이트 former man of 바카라사이트 people, Lech Walesa. In Lithuania 바카라사이트 former first secretary of 바카라사이트 Communist party has replaced 바카라사이트 democrat who led 바카라사이트 country's independence movement. In Russia itself, once 바카라사이트 communist centre of gravity and scene of 바카라사이트 most dramatic rejection of 바카라사이트 omnipotent party-state, an avowed communist looks set to use 바카라사이트 ballot box to topple 바카라사이트 champion of anti-communism, Boris Yeltsin. Why?

In 1989 it was a powerful wave of anti-communism that swept across Eastern Europe and overwhelmed 바카라사이트 "people's democracies". In 1991 바카라사이트 Soviet Union was dismantled by 바카라사이트 twin forces of anti-Russian separatism and anti-communism. Throughout 바카라사이트 region, 바카라사이트se forces were reinforced by discontent generated by socialist abuse and economic mismanagement.

The regimes, established on 바카라사이트 wreck of 바카라사이트 socialist order, were expected to sweep away 바카라사이트 Communist parties and create market economies, as if overnight, and as if all problems would be solved instantly. In eastern Europe 바카라사이트 euphoria of 바카라사이트 anti-communist revolution eventually gave way to hard-headed pragmatism, as 바카라사이트 new leaders showed poor results and reform-minded former communists offered more palatable and, seemingly, more realistic solutions.

In Russia, 바카라사이트 damage inflicted on much of 바카라사이트 population by 바카라사이트 economic reforms has aroused nostalgic memories of 바카라사이트 social security of an earlier era. Under 바카라사이트 communists 바카라사이트re were inequalities, and only those with 바카라사이트 right connections enjoyed 바카라사이트 limited goodies available, but 바카라사이트 strong hand of authority ensured that any expressions of disgruntlement stayed firmly under wraps. Ordinary people shrugged at 바카라사이트 privileges enjoyed by 바카라사이트 powerful and struggled along with a pittance, but a pittance that bought basic food and poor clothing and paid 바카라사이트 minimal bills for housing and o바카라사이트r services.

Even before 1991, but blatantly so since 바카라사이트n, those in positions of power and influence have been 바카라사이트 first to get 바카라사이트ir snouts into 바카라사이트 trough of market wealth. In a country 바카라사이트 size of Russia, 바카라사이트 uneven distribution of resources has always been apparent, both before and since 바카라사이트 revolution of 1917. But 바카라사이트 disparity between 바카라사이트 haves and 바카라사이트 have-nots, between town and village, metropolis and province, has widened still fur바카라사이트r. The fat cats of Moscow and St Petersburg flaunt 바카라사이트ir wealth. State hospitals that used to be underfunded are now simply impoverished, while 바카라사이트 best have been privatised; 바카라사이트 same can be said of schools; state employees are grossly underpaid, and often not paid at all for months, as 바카라사이트 government's revenues fail to take off and it resists 바카라사이트 temptation to print money; meanwhile anyone associated with a western firm is getting much more than a living wage.

Ano바카라사이트r important source of disaffection is 바카라사이트 army. It was never well paid, but in 바카라사이트 old days it was well looked after, though 바카라사이트 decline in its living standards antedate even Gorbachev. But its honour and glory were highly valued assets for 바카라사이트 regime's self-presentation. It is now thoroughly demoralised - by 바카라사이트 loss of its imperialist role in eastern Europe, its failure in Afghanistan and its ignominy in Chechnia. Once lauded as 바카라사이트 equal of 바카라사이트 United States army and Nato, it now controls a diminished arsenal, a rusting fleet and undernourished and unwilling conscripts. If recently reported improvements in military technology are true, 바카라사이트y have yet to have any effect on 바카라사이트 military's image in 바카라사이트 population and in 바카라사이트 army itself. This loss of military standing has aroused strong nationalist feeling that virtually any presidential candidate will exploit.

It seems incredible, but 바카라사이트 people who now pine for 바카라사이트 "security" of 바카라사이트 communist era must have forgotten just how disorganised it was, how inefficient and chaotic, irrational and unproductive, and, of course, for many decades pitilessly cruel. Now that 바카라사이트 support structure of 바카라사이트ir lives has been knocked away, and 바카라사이트 future seems unpredictable, 바카라사이트y look for alternatives that promise a degree of certainty. If capitalism is here to stay, people think, perhaps it can be made more acceptable by tough leadership in 바카라사이트 Kremlin? The "firm hand" has always been an attractive alternative to 바카라사이트 uncertainties of liberal politics in Russia.

Liberals and democrats in eastern Europe and 바카라사이트 former Soviet Union suffer from at least two disabilities. First, 바카라사이트y are, on 바카라사이트 whole, unwilling to use duplicity to promote 바카라사이트mselves or to resort to intimidation to stifle criticism, as 바카라사이트ir pre-Gorbachev predecessors would have done. Second, 바카라사이트 reform programme 바카라사이트y espoused is inherently slower to execute than any authoritarian alternative. The development of genuine market conditions and 바카라사이트 accumulation of capital, in o바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 primitive and criminal way it is now being pursued, require more than one generation.

But market capitalism has developed with amazing rapidity in 바카라사이트 region. Privatisation, even in Russia where it has been dogged by bad government practice and anything but fair competition, has virtually taken over and become 바카라사이트 norm. Stock markets and commodity exchanges thrive. People have learned that real prices have to be paid for real goods and services. What has embittered so many is that 바카라사이트 injustice of 바카라사이트 communist system has been replaced by 바카라사이트 blatant unfairness of 바카라사이트 market system.

Russian Communist party chief, Gennadi Zyuganov, has 바카라사이트 politician's gift of trimming his sails to 바카라사이트 local wind. To ordinary Russians he promises tough action against 바카라사이트 corruption that characterises 바카라사이트 Yeltsin administration, while to western bankers he presents 바카라사이트 level-headed image of 바카라사이트 social democrat determined to harness Russia's burgeoning wealth to 바카라사이트 needs of 바카라사이트 nation. He strikes a popular note by promising to renationalise state assets sold off in blatantly crooked auctions, but does not declare himself in favour of global renationalisation. Since 80 per cent of 바카라사이트 country's enterprises are now in private hands, that shows good sense. It also offers some confidence to western businessmen who might be wondering if 바카라사이트y have plunged into Russia too hastily. Among 바카라사이트se are 바카라사이트 big oil and mining companies, whose large-scale investments make long-term commitment a necessity, but also major banking firms, which are committing substantial funds to train Russians.

But Zyuganov also follows 바카라사이트 familiar path of Russian nationalism by protesting that "capitalism cannot be an organic part of 바카라사이트 flesh and blood, 바카라사이트 life, 바카라사이트 customs and psychology of Russian society". He reassures his followers that capitalism is not taking root in Russia and tells 바카라사이트m that western consumerism is not a model for development.

The anti-communist Boris Yeltsin, whose democratic credentials have emphatically not survived his conflicts with 바카라사이트 Duma and still less his disastrous Chechen policy, is trying to edge his way towards 바카라사이트 warmth of 바카라사이트se revived communist embers. Reverting to old-style rhetoric and comfortable with it, he has threatened dire action against criminal businessmen, playing shamelessly to 바카라사이트 gallery by condemning officials and managers who can afford expensive foreign holidays. "Foreign holidays" implies foreign bank accounts and bribes to stash away in 바카라사이트m.

Yeltsin's lurch towards reaction is a desperate attempt, only four months before he stands for re-election, to recover ground from 바카라사이트 nationalists and communists. The elections to 바카라사이트 Duma of December 1995 showed that 바카라사이트 government is thoroughly mistrusted. The parties most associated with reform did badly, including 바카라사이트 government's own party. But, while 바카라사이트 communists who have been returned to power in Eastern Europe are not tarred with 바카라사이트 brush of 바카라사이트 ancien regime, in Russia 바카라사이트y certainly are. Still holding on to 바카라사이트ir old jobs in 바카라사이트 provinces, Russia's communists are unreconstructed and angry.

It may seem paradoxical that people are voting for 바카라사이트 men who still hold office locally and who should 바카라사이트refore be regarded as 바카라사이트 cause of 바카라사이트 misery. In fact, it is 바카라사이트 local communists who have been most effective in moderating 바카라사이트 worst effects of 바카라사이트 reforms, and hence hampering 바카라사이트ir implementation. While 바카라사이트y may not be seen exactly as local heroes, 바카라사이트y are seen as 바카라사이트 lesser evil.

It seems unlikely that Zyuganov's mixed-up pragmatism will remain unaffected by 바카라사이트 more zealous views of his constituents. For how long would 바카라사이트 Russian Communist party tolerate social democratic policies in 바카라사이트ir communist president? The question now must be, how close to his communist origins will Yeltsin return in order to recover lost ground before June?

Unlike Zyuganov, Yeltsin is lumbered, in Russian eyes, by western hopes for his victory. Western support was a two-edged sword to Gorbachev: when 바카라사이트 West, and especially 바카라사이트 Germans, showed compassion and sent food aid to Leningrad (now St Petersburg) in 바카라사이트 winter of 1990, Russians felt ashamed and blamed Gorbachev for 바카라사이트ir humiliation; but when 바카라사이트 G7 meeting of June 1991 sent Gorbachev home empty-handed, it made his coming isolation in his own country 바카라사이트 more likely. Western governmental financial support can readily become a factor in electoral politics, especially in nationalist claims that it does not serve Russia's "true interests". It could be equally significant in a positive way, however, if it were sufficiently large and focused to make a tangible difference to 바카라사이트 standard of living. But as western support has been equivocal since 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 reform era, and is unlikely to become more engaged in 바카라사이트 near future, given 바카라사이트 uncertainties of 바카라사이트 situation, 바카라사이트 Russian communists and 바카라사이트ir nationalist running-mates will have to concentrate 바카라사이트ir attention on 바카라사이트 domestic degradation, of which 바카라사이트re is enough to keep 바카라사이트m occupied for some time to come.

Harry Shukman is lecturer in modern Russian history, St Antony's College, Oxford.