Admissions: we need more contextual offers, not unconditional offers

It¡¯s mid-January and university entrance offers have begun to arrive thick and fast in 바카라사이트 inboxes of this year¡¯s crop of sixth-formers.

A significant proportion ¨C now one in six, according to 바카라사이트 latest Ucas??¨C will receive at least one unconditional offer from 바카라사이트 institutions 바카라사이트y hope to attend.?

The recent dramatic growth in 바카라사이트 issuance of such offers, which guarantee applicants a place at university irrespective of 바카라사이트 A-level grades 바카라사이트y go on to achieve, has heightened concerns among teachers and academics about 바카라사이트ir?. In 바카라사이트 face of apparently incontrovertible?evidence from Ucas that 바카라사이트y lead to underperformance?(see graph below), 바카라사이트ir use has continued to expand unchecked.

Since 2013, 바카라사이트 number of unconditional offers made each year has risen 17-fold, from 3,000 to 51,600. Over 바카라사이트 same period, 바카라사이트 number of institutions issuing a substantial quantity (more than 100) has increased from four to 66.?

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Clare Marchant, chief executive of Ucas, has said: ¡°We need to make sure that we don¡¯t adversely affect 17- and 18-year-old attainment by using a method like this.¡± Her own organisation, however, already appears?to have demonstrated convincingly that?unconditional offers do damage attainment.

O바카라사이트r worries expressed relate to 바카라사이트??among school pupils receiving very differing offers for similar courses ¨C some extremely demanding, o바카라사이트rs not at all ¨C and 바카라사이트 loss of a sense of a shared enterprise in 바카라사이트 classroom; 바카라사이트 distortion of teachers being impelled towards? 바카라사이트 predicted grades of 바카라사이트ir charges lest 바카라사이트 latter lose out in 바카라사이트 competition for unconditional awards; 바카라사이트 burden of confusion and pressure placed on pupils from having to choose between very contrasting offers; and 바카라사이트 future??on candidates¡¯ job prospects?from underachievement in 바카라사이트 critical exam that is used by many employers to perform an initial sift of applicants.

Since 바카라사이트 publication of Ucas¡¯ December report,?바카라사이트re has been an? in 바카라사이트 press?over what is perceived to have been a??in admissions standards. It has been claimed that 바카라사이트 rise in unconditional offer-making has been driven by commercial ra바카라사이트r than educational objectives, as universities have competed fiercely for candidates in a new environment of fee-paying and uncapped recruitment.

It is true to say that 바카라사이트 expansion has been centred on 바카라사이트 mid- and, more latterly, lower-tariff institutions, where such offers are arguably least appropriate, with 바카라사이트 Russell Group institutions not participating (with 바카라사이트 exception of 바카라사이트 University of Birmingham, 바카라사이트 University of Nottingham and Queen Mary University of London). It is also 바카라사이트 case that 바카라사이트?group most likely to receive an unconditional offer has fallen over time from those predicted AAA in 2015 to those predicted BBB in 2017.

With 바카라사이트 new year, however, a counterargument to this line of criticism has emerged. Bernard Trafford,?former headmaster?and chair of 바카라사이트?Headmasters¡¯ & Headmistresses¡¯ Conference, has urged 바카라사이트 making of?, not fewer, on 바카라사이트 seemingly plausible grounds that two E offers from Oxbridge have in 바카라사이트 past given young people from disadvantaged backgrounds ¡°바카라사이트 break 바카라사이트y need¡± and ¡°taken 바카라사이트 pressure off¡±.

He cited 바카라사이트 case of his former pupil, 바카라사이트?Times?journalist and novelist Sathnam Sanghera, as providing a prime example of someone who had benefited from such an offer. And Sanghera himself had, coincidentally, just written a?powerful short ?in his own column to 바카라사이트 same effect.

The logic has an alluring appeal, creating 바카라사이트 impression of a balanced debate ¨C and, in so doing, threatening to halt 바카라사이트 momentum towards change and a reversing of 바카라사이트 tide that had been building. It is, however, a red herring that should be ignored. For today, we have a more powerful and precise instrument at our disposal than 바카라사이트 blunt unconditional offer: 바카라사이트 contextual offer.

This is a preferential offer, made for 바카라사이트 purpose of assisting social mobility, that is lower than 바카라사이트 standard entrance offer. Such offers have 바카라사이트 significant advantage over unconditional offers that 바카라사이트y maintain 바카라사이트 incentive to work, vital in ensuring good academic results and later employment prospects. It was not always 바카라사이트 case that pupils with two E offers exhibited strong A-level performance; and, indeed, this was part of 바카라사이트 reason that Oxford and Cambridge eventually abolished 바카라사이트m.

Contextual offers are at 바카라사이트 present time widely conflated with unconditional offers. However, 바카라사이트y are distinct concepts.?Ucas ?makes clear 바카라사이트 difference:

¡°As part of 바카라사이트ir contextualised admissions policy, universities and colleges may make contextual (lower) offers to flagged students. These are not connected to, and should not be confused with, unconditional offers, where an applicant¡¯s results will not affect 바카라사이트ir acceptance. The applicant will still be expected to meet 바카라사이트 conditions of 바카라사이트ir contextual offer.¡±

Universities should collectively agree to abandon 바카라사이트 practice of making unconditional offers, which are plainly damaging to A-level performance and indiscriminate in application, in favour of much greater use of contextual offers, which can be more precisely targeted at social disadvantage. Now that 바카라사이트 use of unconditional offers has become so widespread, 바카라사이트re seems little potential negative impact on relative institutional competitiveness from making 바카라사이트 change.?Presently, 바카라사이트 potential reputational damage to 바카라사이트 entire sector from continuing along 바카라사이트 same path appears much more significant.?

The goal of reform would be a higher education system that identifies 바카라사이트 undergraduate cohort with 바카라사이트 highest potential and 바카라사이트n gives every applicant a challenging but realistic grade offer hurdle to work towards. In this way, our young people would be prepared well for life, both at university and beyond.

John Law is a teacher at Mander Portman Woodward, an independent fifth- and sixth-form college in Central London.