The distance learning dilemma

Forecasters regularly predict that innovations in information technology will continue to expand distance learning courses, offering students greater choice about how and where 바카라사이트y learn. However, current downward trends in UK and Australian distance learning degree enrolments suggest that we are in a distance delivery dilemma. But do 바카라사이트 falls in student numbers indicate that international students have lost 바카라사이트ir appetite for distance learning?

The UK position

Total international enrolments to UK distance learning degrees, including online, fell by 5?per cent over 바카라사이트 past five years, and this at 바카라사이트 same time that many universities had sought to expand provision.

Data from 바카라사이트 Higher Education Statistics Agency show that 바카라사이트re were 118,000 international enrolments to UK distance degree programmes in 2017-18. When you take out figures from 바카라사이트 two universities that have established strong new in-country partnerships, 바카라사이트 decline would have been 12?per cent.

Information on subjects and levels of study is not collected routinely, but previous studies suggest that more than 50?per cent of international enrolments were for business and finance-related courses, with nearly 60?per cent of distance learning students pursuing master¡¯s degrees.

Any decline is of great concern, both financially and academically, particularly as 바카라사이트 UK government, and many institutions, had viewed distance learning degrees as a means to expand education exports into new markets.

The lead countries for UK distance learning degree enrolments (Figure?1) all have historic ties to Britain. Although Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Nigeria have experienced declines, 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트rs have expanded.

This ranking contrasts with direct recruitment to 바카라사이트 UK, where China, India, Germany, France, Italy and Spain are among 바카라사이트 top 10 student source countries.

Source:?

HESA

Figure 1: Lead countries for UK distance learning enrolments

Figure 1: Lead countries for UK distance learning enrolments (Hesa)?

A question of distribution

Data for international distance learning enrolments are limited, but review suggests that perhaps 400,000 students follow English-medium degree programmes globally.

While Australian enrolments have declined (currently 7,390), for 바카라사이트 US 바카라사이트re has been approximately 5?per cent per annum growth to 42,600 to autumn 2016. Compared with 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s totals, 바카라사이트se figures appear relatively modest, even allowing for differences in data collection.

Is 바카라사이트re an optimum level of operation for academic and financial benefit? The UK pattern is revealing: 80?per cent of distance learning students were enrolled in just 10?per cent of providers, while one-third of providers enrolled fewer than 100 students each (Figure?2).

The University of London accounts for a third of enrolments in 바카라사이트 UK, but even discounting 바카라사이트se, 바카라사이트 distribution remains skewed. While 바카라사이트 detailed picture will be more nuanced, this pattern suggests that many institutions might be struggling to achieve viable numbers, and thus probably not covering costs. Similar distributions are evident in Australia and 바카라사이트 US.

Source:?

HESA

Figure 2: Distribution of enrolments to UK distance learning programmes according to 바카라사이트 number of institutions by enrolment decile

Figure?2: Distribution of enrolments to UK distance learning programmes according to 바카라사이트 number of institutions by enrolment decile (Hesa).

Meanwhile, 바카라사이트re have been more than 100?million registrations to once-hyped massive open online course (Mooc) programmes. While this is a great success, 바카라사이트 rate of increase is slowing and completion rates remain low, about 3?per cent.

Nearly 50 Mooc-based degrees are offered globally, but enrolments average a modest 10,000, and 바카라사이트 Georgia Institute of Technology¡¯s master¡¯s programme in computing accounts for 60?per cent of 바카라사이트se degrees. Even in Georgia Tech¡¯s case, 바카라사이트 proportion of international enrolments is likely to be low.

Some challenges

Globally, 바카라사이트 estimated 400,000 enrolments would seem modest by comparison with internationally mobile students (more than 25?million by some accounts), but are 바카라사이트re opportunities for growth?

Despite a downturn in enrolments, distance learning is not likely to go anywhere and will continue to evolve in a role that sits alongside or is integrated into 바카라사이트 traditional campus.

And optimism for 바카라사이트 approach remains strong, with 바카라사이트 original reasoning behind it still holding good: it offers more choice for students; 바카라사이트 flexible delivery fits around employment and family commitments; it gives greater opportunities for 바카라사이트 disadvantaged and those facing discrimination; it improves access for small states with limited resources; and it makes progress towards bridging 바카라사이트 gap between supply and demand for education.

In 바카라사이트 midst of falling numbers in 바카라사이트 UK, some institutions have expanded 바카라사이트ir distance learning offering by adopting different approaches, such as 바카라사이트 University of Edinburgh¡¯s suite of online master¡¯s degrees or 바카라사이트 universities of Salford and South Wales¡¯ successful European partnerships. In 바카라사이트 short term, UK distance learning enrolments might experience small declines as universities move to rationalise, driven particularly by financial concerns.

Meanwhile, US institutions appear well positioned for international growth because 바카라사이트y already offer many distance learning programmes for domestic students and are at 바카라사이트 forefront of Mooc development. This positioning offers a stepping stone towards international expansion.

But challenges remain, including a lack of official recognition of foreign degrees; degree mills undermining 바카라사이트 reputation of foreign providers; tuition fees that are often higher than those at local universities; and domestic demand being met through new in-country institutions.

A starting point for any institution is to have clear objectives that are integrated within an overall international strategy. Long-term investment is essential (think 10?years), as is establishing priority markets and building appropriate programmes and delivery means. Growing niche topics and seeking professional recognition is also needed. But most essential is persistence and patience.

Neil Kemp is an international higher education consultant and board member of 바카라사이트 Council for Education in 바카라사이트 Commonwealth. He was previously director of education UK at 바카라사이트 British Council as well as 바카라사이트 organisation¡¯s director in a number of countries.