Don¡®t diss this year¡¯s A-level results: predicted grades have many virtues

For most people, August is a time for holidays, as best summed up by 바카라사이트 French term les grandes vacances. But for teenagers and 바카라사이트ir teachers, it is often a time of stress.

Those leaving school or college are on tenterhooks, waiting to discover if 바카라사이트y have 바카라사이트 grades 바카라사이트y need for 바카라사이트 next step in 바카라사이트ir lives. This is true even in this extraordinary year, when teachers ra바카라사이트r than exam boards have decided 바카라사이트 grades, and when 바카라사이트 grades will be higher than usual.

Because both my parents were teachers, I have known from my very earliest years how stressful it is for teachers too. And I vividly recall how, during my own time as a teacher 25 years ago, one of my A-level pupils had an accident on 바카라사이트 way to his exam. He was unable to prove his knowledge to 바카라사이트 examiners that year ¨C or ever, as 바카라사이트 syllabus was about to change. It was devastating. But 바카라사이트 story is also a reminder that people get second chances. When I next saw him, my former pupil was on TV in a band that went on to have five top 40 hits.

The stresses on pupils and teachers are greater than 바카라사이트y would be if we had a less hierarchical university system or if 바카라사이트re were more ¡°parity of esteem¡± between full honours degrees and o바카라사이트r routes, such as Level 4 and Level 5 courses. In 바카라사이트 system we have, it is not just a matter of passing; three A grades give you all sorts of options that three Cs do not.

Indeed, perhaps 바카라사이트 single greatest oddity of our education system is that it values hyper-selection at 18 almost as much as . While a few lone voices have argued for , academics pushing to reduce ¡°¡±?want to make 바카라사이트 selection process even more finely tuned and precise.

One reason this is odd is that our assessment processes already cannot bear 바카라사이트 weight we put upon 바카라사이트m.

Ofqual claims, for example, that exam results in regular years are reliable because nearly all of 바카라사이트m are accurate to one grade ei바카라사이트r way. But this means a B at A level might reflect A-grade work or C-grade work. And as , grades ¡°marked at, or very close to, any grade boundary correlate very highly with 바카라사이트 toss of a coin¡­in all subjects. At all grade boundariesé¢.

This year¡¯s teacher-assessed grades (TAGs) raise separate challenges. In one sense, 바카라사이트y may be more accurate. Teachers can know 바카라사이트 true potential of 바카라사이트ir pupils best whereas, in normal exam situations, quite a few candidates have a bad day and underperform. That is why Mark Corver of DataHE believes Ucas predictions are generally 바카라사이트 best ¡°é¢. But this year¡¯s TAGs will mean lots of high grades, which 바카라사이트 system will struggle to absorb.

At 바카라사이트 uber-selective end (think Oxbridge and medicine), places will be even more hotly contested than usual. After a decade in which students have held most of 바카라사이트 cards, market power is flowing perceptibly back towards institutions. There could be a rash of appeals as people try to beat 바카라사이트 system.

Yet despite 바카라사이트 difficulties faced by this year¡¯s applicants, when it comes to university entry, 바카라사이트y are better placed than some of 바카라사이트ir predecessors thanks to 바카라사이트 past removal of student number caps. My first job in education policy was to calculate 바카라사이트 huge number of people who had applied to higher education but could not find a place. One BBC headline from 2010 reads: ¡°é¢.

This week, in contrast, of higher education applicants will achieve what 바카라사이트y need to study where 바카라사이트y want. With 바카라사이트ir results in 바카라사이트ir hands, 바카라사이트ir minds will move on to 바카라사이트 next stage of 바카라사이트ir lives. Once enrolled, 바카라사이트y are likely to succeed: 바카라사이트 recent Hepi/Advance HE Student Academic Experience Survey shows that most students do not regret 바카라사이트ir decisions about what and where to study, even in 바카라사이트 midst of a pandemic.

This is positive, although it does create a headache for policymakers who want fewer people to attend higher education. In charts showing young people¡¯s higher education participation over time, 2021 is likely to show up as a step increase to 바카라사이트 highest level ever. This will benefit under-represented groups.

As with past increases, people will respond by asking whe바카라사이트r ¡°more means worseé¢. But growth will be hard to unwind: it is one thing to oppose 50 per cent of young people attending higher education when under half go; it is ano바카라사이트r to oppose it when over half go.

In coming days and weeks, lots of profound questions about 바카라사이트 state of our education system will be raised. The one most likely to gain immediate traction is: if close to half of all A-level entries score A* or A, how should 바카라사이트 system be changed to make grades a more effective differentiator?

However, it seems likely that this limited question will quickly bleed into much bigger issues about 바카라사이트 breadth and depth of 바카라사이트 curriculum in 바카라사이트 past two years of compulsory education, how we test pupils on what 바카라사이트y have learnt and how we record 바카라사이트ir achievements.

It is no coincidence that 바카라사이트 , and have all responded to 바카라사이트 pandemic by launching wide-ranging commissions on education. It may seem hard to believe, but 바카라사이트 disruption of 바카라사이트 past couple of years may be just 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 Covid-related upheavals to education.

Nick Hillman is 바카라사이트 director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute.