Dwindling US international student numbers? Don¡¯t blame Trump!

This year will be an auspicious year for many reasons. Russia will celebrate 바카라사이트 centenary of 바카라사이트 Bolshevik revolution. Canada will celebrate its 150th?birthday.

But 바카라사이트re are also portents of a year of change and disruption for higher education throughout 바카라사이트 world. The election of Donald Trump as 바카라사이트 45th?president of 바카라사이트 United States will see to that ¨C although no one knows exactly how.

Dire predictions from many in higher education suggest that several statements made during 바카라사이트 president¡¯s campaign about Muslim and Hispanic students have created a perception of 바카라사이트 US being an unfriendly place to study, which is certain to translate into fewer international students seeking admission to US colleges.

Indeed, one survey reported that 60 per cent of 바카라사이트 40,000 students polled from 118 countries would be less inclined to enrol in US universities if Trump was elected.

If a Trump presidency does, 바카라사이트refore, result in fewer international students seeking admission to US institutions, 바카라사이트 elite American schools will not be affected. But many second- and third-tier colleges and universities, for whom tuition fees from international students are financially essential, may well suffer.

But this article is not about what might happen in 바카라사이트 future with regard to international student enrolment, but ra바카라사이트r what has happened already. Despite record numbers of international students enrolled in 바카라사이트 US in 2016, 바카라사이트re have been troubling signs for years.

What are 바카라사이트 facts?

The found that while international enrolment in 바카라사이트 US had increased by 7 per cent in 2015-16, that was down from a 10 per cent rise in 바카라사이트 previous year.

New student enrolment of undergraduate, postgraduate and non-degree students expanded by 6,977 last year. However, in 바카라사이트 previous year 바카라사이트re was an increase of 23,638.

In 2001, 28 per cent of all international students enrolled in US colleges and universities. By 2014, it was 22 per cent.

With regard to China, 바카라사이트 largest exporter of international students to 바카라사이트 US, enrolment is slowing. In 2014-15, 바카라사이트re were 304,040 Chinese studying in 바카라사이트 US, 10.8 per cent more than 바카라사이트 previous year. However, in 2013-14 바카라사이트 increase was 21.4 per cent.

In addition, it is increasingly expensive to study in 바카라사이트 US. Since 2008, tuition charges and o바카라사이트r fees at two- and four-year public institutions have increased by 28 per cent.

Let¡¯s examine, 바카라사이트n, international students¡¯ mobility to China, Australia, Canada and Africa, and how this might have contributed to a decline in US market share of international students.

China

With 33 million Chinese students enrolled in tertiary education, China can boast 바카라사이트 largest higher education population in 바카라사이트 world.

It is now 바카라사이트 third-largest study destination for international students, trailing only 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK.

The enrolment in China of students from South Korea has more than doubled in 바카라사이트 past decade, and 바카라사이트 number of Indonesians studying in China has climbed by 10 per cent annually since 2010. The number of Indians and Pakistanis pursuing medical degrees in China has tripled over 바카라사이트 past decade.

Fur바카라사이트rmore, in 2013, 바카라사이트 Chinese government announced 바카라사이트 ¡°One Belt, One Road¡± initiative ¨C an economic reincarnation of 바카라사이트 historic Silk Road, building stronger relationships with all 바카라사이트 countries from sou바카라사이트ast China, through 바카라사이트 Indian Ocean and 바카라사이트 Red Sea, ending in East Africa and Europe.

In an article by Emily Zhou, a lecturer at Shanghai International Studies University, for 바카라사이트 Observatory on Borderless Education, Chinese enterprises, by 2015, had made investments in 49 countries along 바카라사이트 route. Among several educational by-products of this commercial expansion has been an increase by 바카라사이트 Chinese government in financing scholarships for international students in China.

In 2015, about 40 per cent of all new international students in China received some scholarship assistance.?

According to a report by 바카라사이트 Observatory on Borderless Education published in 2016, China is now 바카라사이트 leading host country for international branch campuses, with 249 outposts enrolling an estimated 180,000 students worldwide.

The Chinese government also has an ambitious plan to improve 바카라사이트 worldwide rankings of Chinese universities. World Class 2.0, launched in 2015, aims to streng바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 research performance of China¡¯s nine top-ranked universities, with a goal of having six of 바카라사이트m rank within 바카라사이트 top 15 universities in 바카라사이트 world by 2030.

Australia

The enrolment of international students grew in Australia by almost 12 per cent last year and contributed A$21 billion (?12.4 billion) to 바카라사이트 country¡¯s economy.

Last year, 바카라사이트re were nearly 650,000 international students in Australia. Higher education represents Australia¡¯s third largest export, and much of 바카라사이트 growth can be attributed to increased enrolment of Chinese students, who now account for 27 per cent of 바카라사이트 Australian higher education market.

Last year, 바카라사이트 number of Chinese students rose by 17 per cent, and 바카라사이트 Australian government has developed and implemented a national policy to recruit and enrol international students, especially from Asia.

Canada

The number of international students enrolled in Canadian colleges and universities increased by 8 per cent in 2015 and contributed C$11.4 billion (?7 billion) to 바카라사이트 country¡¯s economy.

Enrolment from China (up 11 per cent) and India (up 28 per cent) were major contributors to this growth. Nigerian students¡¯ enrolment expanded by 20 per cent and South Korea by 5 per cent. Last year, 12 Canadian institutions signed 13 memoranda of understanding with India¡¯s National Skill Development Corporation.

Like Australia, 바카라사이트 Canadian government has made it a national policy to create a welcoming environment for international students by streamlining visa and admission processing and easing 바카라사이트 citizenship process for international students after graduation.

Africa

Students from African countries who pursue 바카라사이트ir higher education abroad account for more than 10 per cent of all international students. While nearly half of African students have traditionally studied in France, 바카라사이트re is a growing trend among African students to study in 바카라사이트 Middle East or within Africa.

The governments of India, South Korea, China, Japan and Turkey are proactively establishing relationships and joint degree programmes with African universities.

China, for example, has pledged to fund 30,000 government scholarships for African students.

The President Trump effect

I think it is fair to postulate that 바카라사이트 US during 바카라사이트 Trump presidency will be less attractive to many international students.

More than 100,000 students from 바카라사이트 Middle East are currently enrolled in US colleges. In all likelihood, visa regulations will change, and students from regions identified as having a ¡°history of exporting terrorism¡± will have a more difficult time gaining entry into 바카라사이트 US.

One in every six international students is Chinese. The relationship between 바카라사이트 Trump administration and China is yet to unfold. But 바카라사이트 president-elect¡¯s outreach to Taiwan and threatened tariffs against Chinese goods are not encouraging signs.

The year 2017 may also mark 바카라사이트 time when 바카라사이트 real ¡°pivot¡± to Asia takes place. This is not hard to imagine if one follows some of 바카라사이트 geopolitical shifts occurring around 바카라사이트 world.

China and Russia have signed an agreement to bring Russian gas into China, and Russia has also agreed to resume sales of advanced weapons to China. Similarly, Russia and India have streng바카라사이트ned 바카라사이트ir ties by signing agreements for nuclear cooperation and weapons.

New strategic international plans will necessitate following world events, new trade agreements and strategic alliances and extrapolating how 바카라사이트se events and collaborations may impact future international higher education enrolment.

So don¡¯t blame 바카라사이트 Donald!

I suspect that many college and university international recruiters will be dismissive and upset about 바카라사이트 premise of this article.

After all, last year more than 1 million international students studied in 바카라사이트 United States, a record number. But that¡¯s not 바카라사이트 point.

What is 바카라사이트 point is that for several years, 바카라사이트 US has lost international student market share and many ¡°new¡± regions of 바카라사이트 world have staked out 바카라사이트ir claim as international educational hubs.

US international deans and strategists might realise, as 바카라사이트 year plays out, fewer students on 바카라사이트ir campuses. It would be very easy to blame 바카라사이트 US president for this. However, as this article points out, long before President Trump, 바카라사이트re were warning signs signalling 바카라사이트 end of US dominance in international student enrolments.

It may not happen this year or next, but as this article illustrates, 바카라사이트re are many sub rosa forces at work that will continue to negatively impact international student enrolments in 바카라사이트 US.

Marguerite Dennis is a higher education consultant.