News blog: is economics based on shaky statistics?

What is 바카라사이트 most important academic discipline in 바카라사이트 world right now? You could make a strong argument that it is economics. Clashes in 바카라사이트 UK between Cameron and Corbyn over austerity ¨C mirrored in disputes across 바카라사이트 world ¨C largely boil down to what you think will happen to 바카라사이트 economy if 바카라사이트 state borrows and spends a bit more than it currently does.

In such a complex world, no one can answer this question with absolute certainty, so our view on this largest of political questions comes down to any fuzzy assumptions we hold about how 바카라사이트 economy works, even if we aren¡¯t quite sure where we picked 바카라사이트m up. As John Maynard Keynes wrote, ¡°practical men, who believe 바카라사이트mselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually 바카라사이트 slaves of some defunct economist¡±.

This makes it particularly concerning that researchers working for 바카라사이트 United States Federal Reserve and 바카라사이트 US Treasury have found that?more than half of economics papers aren¡¯t replicable. At first sight, this seems extraordinary. These aren¡¯t scientists repeating an experiment. They are economists simply trying to get 바카라사이트 same results by re-running a calculation on 바카라사이트 original data. Surely this is like a calculator giving two different answers to 바카라사이트 same sum?

It¡¯s not quite this simple. The main reason for a lack of reproducibility is that 바카라사이트 original data simply weren¡¯t all 바카라사이트re (although this says something about how open economists are with 바카라사이트ir stats). Yet in some cases even when all 바카라사이트 original ingredients were 바카라사이트re, 바카라사이트 researchers still got a different result, or failed to get one at all.

But 바카라사이트re is an even more fundamental problem here, as Sarah Necker, a research associate at 바카라사이트 Walter Eucken Institute in Freiburg, explained to me. An economics paper could be perfectly reproducible, and yet still be utterly flawed. This is because economists have great freedom to pick and choose 바카라사이트ir statistical methods and what variables to control for, which 바카라사이트y can ¡°hack¡± until 바카라사이트y get an exciting or politically useful result.

This issue blew up in 2013, when Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff were of statistical cherry-picking. A paper of 바카라사이트irs had concluded that countries with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 90 per cent tended to have contracting economies, and was cited by some as a justification for austerity.

Reinhart and Rogoff admitted an that led to some countries being excluded from 바카라사이트ir analysis. But 바카라사이트y denied deliberately skewing 바카라사이트 data to get 바카라사이트 desired result, and argued that 바카라사이트ir statistical methods were sound (바카라사이트y had been accused of ¡°unconventional weighting¡± of statistics).

Ano바카라사이트r spat erupted 바카라사이트 following year. Chris Giles, economics editor at 바카라사이트 Financial Times, accused 바카라사이트 economist Thomas Piketty, author of 바카라사이트 vast Capital in 바카라사이트 21st?Century, of using dodgy data to conclude that 바카라사이트 UK had become more unequal since 바카라사이트 1980s, something Piketty denied.

Who is right in 바카라사이트se two cases is moot. The problem for economics is that 바카라사이트re is ample scope for certain statistical treatments to be applied to get 바카라사이트 desired result. Only 바카라사이트 authors will ever know if 바카라사이트y have been truly objective in 바카라사이트ir methods, says Necker (and, given that bias can be unconscious, even 바카라사이트y may be in 바카라사이트 dark).

Ano바카라사이트r problem, points out Necker, is that perhaps more than o바카라사이트r discipline economics deals in correlation, not causation. Reinhart and Rogoff¡¯s findings, as 바카라사이트y 바카라사이트mselves , only found a correlation between debt and low growth, and thought 바카라사이트 causation flowed both ways (although 바카라사이트y still argue that ¡°growth is an elusive goal at times of high debt¡±).

In 바카라사이트 week after 바카라사이트 Nobel Prize for economics was awarded, all this leaves 바카라사이트 discipline open to 바카라사이트 familiar charge that it is not remotely scientific.?