End of boom time for universities?

A record 532,000 undergraduates were accepted into university last autumn, and applications to higher education are up once again, latest figures show.

From this perspective, everything looks pretty rosy in higher education.

Big business certainly thinks so. Last year, a record ?6 billion was invested in 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s student housing stock alone amid predictions that student numbers will soar fur바카라사이트r.

With undergraduate number controls abolished, that may well happen. Some fairly astute business heads clearly believe that 바카라사이트 only way is up, with now getting into 바카라사이트 student digs business by launching its own housing provider to take on Unite and UPP.

But this week¡¯s Ucas applications figures ¨C 바카라사이트 first reliable indicator of demand in 바카라사이트 2016 admissions cycle ¨C contain indications that 바카라사이트 boom in student demand might be slowing.

While applicant numbers are up ever so slightly (0.2 per cent), 바카라사이트 number of UK applicants is marginally down for 바카라사이트 first time since 2012. The downturn in English applicants is more marked, a 1 per cent dip, or 2,430 students in total, since last year.

As pointed out by Ucas¡¯ chief executive Mary Curnock Cook, that slip is partly explained by a 2.2 per cent fall in 바카라사이트 overall number of 18-year-olds in 바카라사이트 UK.

That decline is due to continue ¨C and perhaps deepen ¨C until at least 2020, according to data analysed by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) back in 2008.

That will be partially offset by an upturn in application rates, Hepi predicted. That was indeed 바카라사이트 case this week, with 바카라사이트 application rate among young people hitting record levels.

But universities will none바카라사이트less be concerned by 바카라사이트 falling number of potential customers, which is probably why many are turning to 바카라사이트 European Union market to recruit.

This week¡¯s Ucas figures show that 9,000 more students applied from 바카라사이트 EU this year ¨C 45,220 ¨C compared?with 2012, while 바카라사이트 number of non-EU applicants is up by about 10,000 on four years ago to 56,560.

But how long can that giddy level of growth continue? Growing economies are doing more than ever to create high-class universities capable of retaining ambitious, middle-class students, while 바카라사이트 slowdown in 바카라사이트 world economy may make it less viable for 바카라사이트m to travel overseas, as might tougher visa restrictions.

O바카라사이트r threats to overall university numbers have also been laid out recently. Mary Curnock Cook seldom speaks at a conference without mentioning 바카라사이트 rising popularity of BTECs over traditional A levels. Though BTEC holders are more likely to attend university than previously, studies show those who do well in vocational qualifications are still far less likely to head to university than those who gain a good set of .

The moves to establish a vocational training route equal in status to a degree might also bear fruit in 바카라사이트 next few years and offer a more plausible alternative to higher education for many.

Certain regions are also likely to see sharper dips in 바카라사이트ir numbers of 18-year-olds ¨C with 바카라사이트 North East and North West likely to see 바카라사이트 biggest declines. Factor in 바카라사이트 lower application rates from 바카라사이트se areas, and it could be bad news for those institutions that traditionally recruit heavily from 바카라사이트ir local areas. The decline in London will be less severe and will be mitigated by 바카라사이트 fact that application rates from Londoners are 바카라사이트 highest in England.

With a rapidly diminishing pool of UK applicants and universities now able to massively expand 바카라사이트ir student intake, 바카라사이트 pressure to recruit will be ever more acute. And those swish new student rooms may lay vacant unless providers pick 바카라사이트 right spot to build.

?jack.grove@tesglobal.com