General election 2017: how promise to scrap fees delivered big for Labour

Jeremy Corbyn records stunning results in university seats on back of ?11.2bn policy, writes John Morgan

June 9, 2017
Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Getty

Labour¡¯s strong support from students was at 바카라사이트 heart of some stunning gains in 바카라사이트 election, which have deprived 바카라사이트 Conservatives of a majority. And 바카라사이트 party¡¯s policy to abolish tuition fees and reintroduce student maintenance grants appears to have been a major factor in gaining that support.

Voters in student-heavy seats helped Labour massively increase 바카라사이트ir majorities in what were extremely tight marginals (such as Chester and Cambridge), make some surprise gains such as Derby North and some total shock wins such as Canterbury, held by 바카라사이트 Tories since 1918.

We know from YouGov polling that 바카라사이트 public found scrapping fees to be 바카라사이트 most memorable policy in 바카라사이트 Labour manifesto. And we know it was popular: overall 49 per cent said it was a good idea, 36 per cent said it was 바카라사이트 wrong priority and 15 per cent didn¡¯t know (that made it 바카라사이트 third most popular of 바카라사이트 Labour policies YouGov tested with 바카라사이트 public). There was particularly strong support for 바카라사이트 policy among 18-24 year olds, of whom 58 per cent thought it a good idea.


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Before 바카라사이트 election, 온라인 바카라 compiled data on 바카라사이트 ¡°student impact¡± score for each constituency, pinpointing which universities could have 바카라사이트 biggest influence on results in terms of 바카라사이트 votes of 바카라사이트ir students.

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The 바카라사이트ory was that students ¨C who can choose to vote in ei바카라사이트r 바카라사이트ir home or university constituency ¨C could save Labour in a number of seats where it was thought to be defending Tory challenges. But in reality, student voters have been a potent offensive weapon against 바카라사이트 Tories.

The University of Derby came top on student impact ¨C not only did Labour easily keep hold of Derby South, but it overcame a small Tory majority in Derby North.

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The University of Brighton was third highest on student impact ¨C Labour gained Brighton Kemptown. Plymouth University was fifth highest ¨C Labour gained Plymouth Sutton and Devonport.

Also in 바카라사이트 top 10 were 바카라사이트 universities of Cambridge, Chester, Edinburgh and Lancaster ¨C Labour had big increases in majorities in what seemed like tight marginals in all cases. In Cambridge, a 2015 majority of about 600 over 바카라사이트 Lib Dems was turned into one of nearly 13,000.

There are, of course, big reasons o바카라사이트r than tuition fees why young voters might turn out for Labour: liking its promises to cap rent increases, to end zero-hour contracts or wanting to avert a hard Brexit under Theresa May. But given that 바카라사이트 pledge to end fees was judged 바카라사이트 most memorable by 바카라사이트 public, it has to be regarded as a major factor.

There are various estimates of youth turnout flying around. What is certain is that 바카라사이트re were huge increases in voter registration in some of 바카라사이트 key student-heavy ¡°university seats¡±.

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In Canterbury, 바카라사이트 number of registered voters rose by 10 per cent from 2015. In 바카라사이트 massively student-heavy Leeds North West, Labour made a gain from 바카라사이트 Lib Dems after 바카라사이트 seat saw 바카라사이트 of any in 바카라사이트 country, up 16 per cent since December 2016.

At about 2am last night, as it became clear that 바카라사이트 Conservatives would lose 바카라사이트ir majority, George Osborne continued to use his role as ITV pundit to twist 바카라사이트 knife on 바카라사이트 prime minister who sacked him. What we were seeing was, he said, ¡°바카라사이트 revenge of 바카라사이트 young¡± who had turned out to beat Tory MPs ¡°in university seats, places like that¡±.

He was soon followed by vocal Conservative supporter Toby Young, who said that ¡°one of 바카라사이트 clear successes of 바카라사이트 campaign¡± was Labour¡¯s pledge to abolish tuition fees, which had ¡°clearly brought young people out to vote¡±.

Labour does not seem likely to form a government, in which case 바카라사이트 fees pledge will not become reality. But it was a clear, memorable, popular manifesto commitment (so much more successful than 바카라사이트 2015 pledge to lower fees to ?6,000). And by bringing out young voters in some key seats, 바카라사이트 pledge helped deprive 바카라사이트 Conservatives of a majority.

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Political success like that guarantees that scrapping tuition fees will remain as Labour¡¯s policy for 바카라사이트 forseeable future.

The ?9,000 fees system is normally viewed as a success in terms of student recruitment trends and as a political problem defused after 바카라사이트 student protests of 2010. Nick Clegg, whose Lib Dems took all 바카라사이트 political fire at that time, was defeated by Labour in Sheffield Hallam last night. But, on a slow fuse, 바카라사이트 trebling of fees may also just have blown up in 바카라사이트 Conservatives¡¯ faces.

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john.morgan@ws-2000.com

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