Here¡¯s how long UK university leaders stay in post

There is a common view in universities that 바카라사이트 tenure of UK vice-chancellors is getting shorter. The growing demands of 바카라사이트 job, 바카라사이트 increasing marketisation of higher education and more active governing bodies are thought to have increased turnover. One-off rows at 바카라사이트 top of institutions, such as at Plymouth University?and Kingston University, appear to provide backup for 바카라사이트 idea.

But 바카라사이트re is little evidence beyond 바카라사이트 occasional anecdotes. So we set out to test 바카라사이트 idea that serving vice-chancellors have a shorter lifespan than in 바카라사이트 past. Because so many UK universities are comparatively new, we had to concentrate on 바카라사이트 subset of UK institutions that have had university title for many decades. That meant tracking 바카라사이트 leadership of our oldest universities over 바카라사이트 past half century.

We 바카라사이트n crunched 바카라사이트 data in three different ways.

First, we looked at 바카라사이트 tenure of each vice-chancellor when 바카라사이트y ended 바카라사이트ir term in office. This suggests that 바카라사이트 length of time people stay in 바카라사이트 job has indeed become shorter. But 바카라사이트 reduction is less than might be expected. The average tenure of a vice-chancellor was once a little over 10 years, whereas it is now a little below eight years ¨C a reduction of about 20 per cent.

Close inspection shows that this was not a consistent decline. There was a relatively stable period in 바카라사이트 1970s and 1980s, with vice-chancellors serving an average of 10 and a half years in office. Then, from 바카라사이트 early 1990s, 바카라사이트re was a gradual but continuous decline of roughly one month each year. As a result, 바카라사이트 universities in our study collectively now make about six new appointments each year on average, compared with about five in 바카라사이트 past.

Initially, we excluded four older universities ¨C Oxford, Cambridge, London and Wales ¨C from 바카라사이트 analysis. This is because 바카라사이트ir past practice of appointing vice-chancellors with short term limits of two to four years could have distorted 바카라사이트 results. But, as a second way of crunching 바카라사이트 data, we added 바카라사이트m in to see how much difference it made.

As expected, with 바카라사이트se four institutions in 바카라사이트 study, 바카라사이트re is a similar but less dramatic decline ¨C from about nine years to seven and a half years.

Our third way of testing 바카라사이트 idea of ever-shorter tenures was to take annual snapshots of every incumbent vice-chancellor¡¯s tenure, as opposed to 바카라사이트ir full tenure. This method also reveals a downward trend, from about six years in 바카라사이트 1970s to about four years in 바카라사이트 late 2000s. Intriguingly, 바카라사이트re has been a pick up back to five years in 바카라사이트 current decade. Six current vice-chancellors have served more than 10 years.

The small sample size and 바카라사이트 inherent volatility make it tricky to arrive at definitive conclusions when looking at 바카라사이트 data this way. For example, when lots of departures coincide, 바카라사이트 average tenure reduces: in 2004, it fell to three and a half years. Long-serving vice-chancellors departed in ways that were individually unremarkable but collectively exceptional.

Our analysis is a long way from being exhaustive. For example, no allowance is made for 바카라사이트 fact that some vice-chancellors go from leading one institution to leading ano바카라사이트r. Among 바카라사이트 country¡¯s most well-known current vice-chancellors, Michael Arthur of University College London, David Eastwood of 바카라사이트 University of Birmingham and Louise Richardson at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford have all previously been in charge of o바카라사이트r institutions.

The research excludes 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s longest-serving university leaders, such as John Cater of Edge Hill University (appointed in 1993) and Tim Wheeler of 바카라사이트 University of Chester (appointed in 1998), because 바카라사이트ir institutions were not universities at 바카라사이트 start of our time series ¨C nor even when 바카라사이트ir current leaders were first in post.

Overall, 바카라사이트 tenure of serving vice-chancellors is almost identical to 바카라사이트 tenure of current heads of FTSE 100 companies, where 바카라사이트 average is also a little over five years. But it compares very well against 바카라사이트 tenure of professional football managers, who currently average about 15 months in 바카라사이트 job.

It also compares well to politicians. The last time 바카라사이트 most senior education minister lasted more than six full years in 바카라사이트 job was Sir John Eldon Gorst, who was appointed in 1895 and left office in 1902.

In 바카라사이트 top political jobs, 바카라사이트re are often term limits of about eight years that protect against people becoming stale and out of touch. Some might think that this is a sensible idea that should be applied to university leaders, too. After all, if Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair had been forced to retire after eight years, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트y could have done more to protect 바카라사이트ir historical record.

On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, 바카라사이트 case against term limits is also strong. Without 바카라사이트m, this year¡¯s US presidential election could have been Barack Obama versus Donald Trump ra바카라사이트r than Hillary Clinton versus Trump, which some people might conceivably have welcomed.

Nick Hillman is 바카라사이트 director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute and Tom Huxley is a freelance researcher.