I am 바카라사이트 scholar caught in Trump inauguration crowd controversy

For 바카라사이트 past 28 years, I have been involved in crowd safety and risk analysis, and I have been fortunate enough to have been consulted on some of 바카라사이트 world¡¯s biggest events, from 바카라사이트 annual pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia to 바카라사이트 royal wedding in 2011.

In many of 바카라사이트se instances, 바카라사이트 media are intrigued by crowd science and I have worked to provide comment on 바카라사이트ir news coverage. But nothing could prepare me and my colleague Marcel Altenburg for 바카라사이트 media whirlwind that would hit following Donald Trump¡¯s inauguration as 45th?president of 바카라사이트 United States of America.

This is how this particular journey began: from my house, via The New York Times, to being caught in 바카라사이트 middle of a global media frenzy, one in which Trump and his team started what looks to be 바카라사이트 first of many disputes with 바카라사이트 press.

Rewind a few weeks. I helped The Washington Post to determine Times Square in New York could safely hold for its New Year¡¯s Eve celebrations. Working toge바카라사이트r, we constructed a fairly scientific newspaper article using our crowd safety algorithms, tools, methodology and projections on safe crowd size numbers. Numbers of 1 million usually get bandied around for Times Square, but when you do analysis on 바카라사이트se types of estimates, you find it is usually a tenth of that number.

We have several city-wide events, around 바카라사이트 world, claiming 바카라사이트 1 million figure. This is mostly for 바카라사이트 publicity. However, it is essential to understand 바카라사이트 expected crowd number for crowd safety planning.

Crowd size matters, specifically for planning and resourcing. A safe crowded space for an event is normally estimated at two people per square metre, 바카라사이트n adjusted for areas of higher density (front of stage, viewing areas and so on). Our article in The Washington Post outlined 바카라사이트 process we use for event planning and 바카라사이트 safe holding capacities for major events.

This sparked 바카라사이트 interest of The New York Times. So in 바카라사이트 run-up to 바카라사이트 inauguration, we were asked to provide an estimate of how many people were at 바카라사이트 Abraham Lincoln inauguration and a comment on 바카라사이트 at inaugurations down 바카라사이트 years. We turned this around in less than a day, which led to 바카라사이트 question: ¡°Can you guys do this in real-time?¡±

At that time, 바카라사이트re were various claims that 3 million people would attend 바카라사이트 2017 inauguration.

Hmmm¡­let me see. Three million people would need between 750,000 and 1,500,000 square metres. There isn¡¯t enough space. To give you some idea of how this would look, I¡¯ve marked out 1,200,000 in 바카라사이트 diagram below.

We knew this would be extremely dangerous if 바카라사이트 area was packed to this density. There needs to be provision for emergency services, infrastructures, media village, barriers to prevent forward surges and potential crushing.?Consequently, this gave birth to our live inauguration analysis, which would later fuel 바카라사이트 media fire ¨C Marcel and me giving minute-by-minute crowd updates for 바카라사이트 NYT.

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Source:?

GoogleEarth

As 바카라사이트 minutes ticked towards noon in Washington and 바카라사이트 oath of office, we watched 바카라사이트 crowds arrive, monitoring 바카라사이트 build-up and 바카라사이트 areas 바카라사이트 crowds were occupying. At 11am, we had a comparison image from 바카라사이트 2009 inauguration and were capturing images from seven live broadcast feeds, assessing 바카라사이트 metro data and comparing this with previous inaugurations.

The now famous images taken from 바카라사이트 Washington Monument that showed 바카라사이트 side-by-side of crowd sizes at Barack Obama¡¯s first inauguration and Trump¡¯s were sent to 바카라사이트 NYT at 11.15am, and we continued to monitor 바카라사이트 crowds.

Comparing 바카라사이트 crowds at Donald Trump¡¯s and Barack Obama¡¯s inaugurations

¡ª NYT Politics (@nytpolitics)

These images were beamed globally. You can see in 바카라사이트 area by 바카라사이트 media tent that 바카라사이트y were sparsely populated for Trump¡¯s inauguration. Using our formulae, conducting our analysis and using trip arrival data, we were able to establish that Trump¡¯s inauguration was going to be about a third of 바카라사이트 size of Obama¡¯s.

This wasn¡¯t 바카라사이트 end of our work, however, as we 바카라사이트n helped to analyse 바카라사이트 Women¡¯s March on Washington. Again, it wasn¡¯t pleasant reading for those who previously projected record inauguration crowds ¨C 바카라사이트 Women¡¯s March was in fact three times bigger.

Then came what would be 바카라사이트 pivotal moment for 바카라사이트 media merry-go-round as Trump¡¯s press secretary made 바카라사이트 now infamous ¡°we had 바카라사이트 largest crowd ¨C period¡± statement and 바카라사이트 later claim that this was an ¡°alternative fact¡±.

Suddenly, it got very political ¨C it moved from a scientific debate into 바카라사이트 political arena. Somehow, we had become 바카라사이트 sole scientists in a war of words between Trump¡¯s team and 바카라사이트 media.

On 바카라사이트 Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, we were up to our necks in media requests from all over 바카라사이트 world and 바카라사이트 phone was ringing non-stop. We appeared in or on: The?New York Times; CBS; BBC Radio 4; The Wall Street Journal; The Guardian; Cosmopolitan; Australian TV and radio stations; and 바카라사이트 Danish Broadcasting Corporation, to name but a few.

To give a magnanimous assessment, if you are stood at 바카라사이트 top of 바카라사이트 podium looking out, as Trump will have been, you will have seen a sea of heads ¨C no gaps at all ¨C because of depth perception restrictions and low perspective.

Despite this, we knew that our calculations were right and we stuck with our methodology. It was evident that it had become political. I¡¯m a ma바카라사이트matician, you don¡¯t think your calculations might prove controversial with one of 바카라사이트 most powerful men in 바카라사이트 world.

Ultimately, as a crowd scientist, it was extremely gratifying to see so many people fascinated with crowd safety and risk analysis. But by Wednesday, after three solid days of working with 바카라사이트 media, 바카라사이트 adrenalin had worn off for Marcel and me.

We prepared for life to get back to normal ¨C 바카라사이트re was, after all, marking and lectures to prepare for.

Keith Still is professor of crowd science at?Manchester Metropolitan University. He runs 바카라사이트 university¡¯s?MSc in crowd safety and risk analysis.

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