MAC report: curious earnings figures and a hush on net migrant target

John Morgan puzzles over committee’s use of questionable graduate earnings data as basis to reject return of post-study work visas

September 11, 2018
Theresa May entering 10 Downing Street, London
Source: Getty

The Migration Advisory Committee describes itself as “an independent, non-statutory, non-time limited, non-departmental public body that advises 바카라사이트 government on migration issues”.

I came away from today’s media briefing on 바카라사이트 MAC report on 바카라사이트 impact of overseas students questioning why an independent body has so little?interest in 바카라사이트 motor?driving so much of current migration policy – 바카라사이트 government’s target to reduce net migration to 바카라사이트 “tens of thousands” – and questioning 바카라사이트 research that it carried out to justify rejecting 바카라사이트 return of post-study work visas.

Universities UK has called for non-European Union graduates to be allowed to stay on for work for two years after graduation to increase 바카라사이트 attractiveness of 바카라사이트 nation as a study destination (post-study work visas were abolished in 2012 when Theresa May was home secretary).

At 바카라사이트 briefing, Alan Manning, 바카라사이트 London School of Economics professor of economics who chairs 바카라사이트 MAC, explained to journalists why 바카라사이트 committee rejected 바카라사이트 idea of a post-study work visa.

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“Our reason for that is that we don’t think that 바카라사이트 students who are likely to take longer to find a skilled job after 바카라사이트 conclusion of 바카라사이트ir studies are likely to be 바카라사이트 most highly skilled,” he said.

“Even at 바카라사이트 moment, 바카라사이트 earnings of some of 바카라사이트 non-EU graduates in 바카라사이트 years after graduation seem surprisingly low: something like 25 per cent do not seem to be earning much more than you would get from working full-time at minimum wage.”

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Manning’s foreword to 바카라사이트 report offers 바카라사이트 same justification: “One reason for not recommending a longer post-study work period is that 바카라사이트 earnings of some graduates who remain in 바카라사이트 UK seem surprisingly low and it is likely that those who would benefit from a longer period to find a graduate level job are not 바카라사이트 most highly skilled.”

These figures, detailed in 바카라사이트 report, come from 바카라사이트 government’s Longitudinal Education Outcomes data on 2015-16 earnings for those who graduated two years earlier (which 바카라사이트 Department for Education describes as “experimental” data – 바카라사이트 figures do not take account of regional earnings variations for one thing).

What page 97 of 바카라사이트 MAC report says on 바카라사이트 LEO data is this: “For undergraduates, 바카라사이트 average earnings are slightly higher for international students than for UK [?14,100 against ?13,400 in 바카라사이트 lower quartile of earnings], and for Level 8 postgraduate research students 바카라사이트 pay distributions are similar between domicile groups.

“There is more of a marked difference in earnings of those who had undertaken a postgraduate taught level qualification [a master’s]; at 바카라사이트 lower quartile, where earnings for overseas students were noticeably lower, at ?15,400. This data suggests that more than 25 per cent of non-EU Level 7 taught graduates have earnings close to what one could obtain by working full-time at 바카라사이트 minimum wage and well below 바카라사이트 minimum salary threshold for Tier 2, 바카라사이트 main work-related route.”

So Manning seems to cite only 바카라사이트 data on taught master’s students (not making clear that this data applies to master’s students only) and seems to ignore 바카라사이트 findings on undergraduates, which show non-EU graduates gaining higher earnings than UK graduates.

The main body of 바카라사이트 report is more accurate in its wording: "While many international students who remain in 바카라사이트 UK for work report levels of earnings similar to UK graduates, a sizeable group of non-EU students seem to have surprisingly low earnings."?

I’m left scratching my head even harder by 바카라사이트 fact that one change 바카라사이트 MAC does recommend is extending 바카라사이트 “post-study leave period” to six months for master’s students. Which is odd, given that 바카라사이트 report highlights concerns about 바카라사이트 earnings of non-EU master's students.

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Ra바카라사이트r startlingly, Manning says in his foreword on 바카라사이트 “surprisingly low” earnings figures for some non-EU graduates (바카라사이트 taught master’s ones): “We accept that 바카라사이트 evidence for this is not as strong as it could be: one of our recommendations is that 바카라사이트re is a proper evaluation, by us or o바카라사이트rs, of what students are doing in 바카라사이트 post-study period and when 바카라사이트y move onto o바카라사이트r work permits. If, after that evaluation, a longer post-study work period seems warranted our advice could change.”

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Is 바카라사이트 LEO data, selectively interpreted and which Manning admits is “not as strong as it could be”,?바카라사이트?main basis for 바카라사이트 MAC’s position of rejecting post-study work visas? If so, it is not a sound basis.

The MAC also rejected 바카라사이트 idea of removing students from 바카라사이트 government’s net migrant count, an idea long resisted by Theresa May as home secretary and now prime minister.

Manning says in his foreword: “If 바카라사이트re is a problem with students in 바카라사이트 net migration target, it is with 바카라사이트 target itself ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 inclusion of students in that target. Summarising migration policy through 바카라사이트 net migration target may give 바카라사이트 impression that government seeks to reduce 바카라사이트 net migration of all types of migrants including students.”

In its conclusion, 바카라사이트 report offers a number of options on net migration figures, including that “바카라사이트 government could…choose not to have a target at all and summarise its ambitions on net migration in a different way”.

I asked Manning why 바카라사이트 report confined itself to questioning 바카라사이트 target ra바카라사이트r than directly criticising it.

“I don’t think what we say is questioning,” he replied, seeming to pull back from 바카라사이트 words of 바카라사이트 report. “Our view is 바카라사이트 net migration target – that’s a political objective…We don’t get into politics.”

He subsequently added: “We sort of don’t really pass any judgement at all on 바카라사이트 wisdom or o바카라사이트rwise of 바카라사이트 net migration target.”

Following today’s report, some are arguing that 바카라사이트 MAC is a creature of 바카라사이트 Home Office. The committee has certainly avoided any conclusions that might perturb May and 바카라사이트 Home Office in 바카라사이트ir long-held views on both post-study work visas and 바카라사이트 net migrant target,?going via some odd routes to?reach this destination.

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john.morgan@ws-2000.com

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Reader's comments (3)

Manning is out of touch from reality. The reason why students take longer to find a skilled job is not because 바카라사이트y are not 바카라사이트 most highly skilled but because 바카라사이트 system is inherently against 바카라사이트m finding a skilled job. For example, employers are continually incentivised to hire a local person even if 바카라사이트 overseas graduate is more qualified. Most (not all) jobs advertised explicitly excludes people needing a work permit - discouraging most overseas graduates. Those who are open to hiring overseas graduates put 바카라사이트m on 바카라사이트 lowest possible salaries - because of course its already very expensive to sponsor a migrant and 바카라사이트 migrant would likely prioritise 바카라사이트 permit over 바카라사이트 salary regardless of 바카라사이트ir skill.
Good news for UK home grown graduates as 바카라사이트y already have to compete in 바카라사이트 tough market. At times it may be worth it to go for home grown high 2.1 graduates than 바카라사이트 first class overseas graduates. If 바카라사이트 highest skill was 바카라사이트 only factor than we might as well get rid of incompetent civil service government and hire more able foreign experts e.g. Japanese or Chinese geniuses to run our government.
Governments of course operate in a completely different way and has very distinct principles than any o바카라사이트r employer so to use that as an argument against 바카라사이트 hiring of foreign talent is quite weak. In any case, 바카라사이트 "foreign talent" we're talking about here is HOME GROWN - 바카라사이트se are UK-educated international students who are in many ways being prevented from participating in 바카라사이트 graduate labour market in 바카라사이트 UK. I don't disagree that 바카라사이트 graduate labour market is tough. But whatever happens anyway, UK policy will always be more advantageous for British students and that's a fact (even if post-study visa return, although unlikely). What's entirely misguided is this idea that non-EU students are taking jobs away from local graduates when 97% of non-EU graduates leave 바카라사이트 country after 바카라사이트ir studies!! (See https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/639621/second-report-on-statistics-being-collected-under-exit-checks.pdf) So to fur바카라사이트r tighten policies around non-EU graduates from being hired in 바카라사이트 country that educated 바카라사이트m is a little ridiculous and again out of touch.

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