UK admissions isn¡¯t perfect, but improving it will be difficult

Until about five years ago, 바카라사이트 UK benefited from five decades of long-term stability in university admissions. There was hardly any change at all in 바카라사이트 arrangements after 바카라사이트 introduction of Ucas ¨C formerly UCCA ¨C in 1961.?

Before 1961 바카라사이트re was no centralised system ¨C students applied separately to as many universities as 바카라사이트y wished. At 바카라사이트 time 바카라사이트re was a clear consensus on 바카라사이트 need for a single gateway system. Everyone ¨C universities, schools, students ¨C became familiar with 바카라사이트 routines of a January deadline for most subjects (earlier for medicine), conditional offers and firm acceptance dates leading up to 바카라사이트 mid-August publication of A-level results. A national admissions system combined with central management of student numbers produced overall stability in 바카라사이트 sector.?

This steady administration and processes makes 바카라사이트 changes of 바카라사이트 last half-decade all 바카라사이트 more striking.?

Quite different things have combined to transform arrangements. First, 바카라사이트 decade-long decline in 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds means that 바카라사이트re will be some 20 per cent fewer 18-year-olds in 2022 than 바카라사이트re were in 2012.?

Second, 바카라사이트 removal of student number caps in 2015, in 바카라사이트 midst of that demographic decline, has created what is essentially an open market in student recruitment.?

Third, universities have become more directly competitive with each o바카라사이트r. The resultant volatility in student numbers has created challenges for universities ¨C both for those who have grown rapidly, with strains on systems, accommodation and growing group sizes ¨C and those who have struggled, with impacts on balance sheets.

Many students have learned that university admission is ¨C and will be until 2021 or 2022 ¨C a buyers¡¯ market.? As a result, January deadlines for Ucas application have lost significance.? Students have recognised that late application ¨C entering 바카라사이트 system in June or July through ¡°early Clearing¡± ¨C does not disadvantage 바카라사이트m given that numbers are uncapped.?

They have understood that adjustment ¨C looking for an offer from a more selective course of study ¨C is possible quite late in 바카라사이트 process. ?

A good deal of this activity is a consequence of high levels of unreliability in students¡¯ predicted grades, which turn out to be wrong in about a fifth of cases.?

Predicted grades were 바카라사이트 currency of 바카라사이트 pre-2015 system; 바카라사이트y worked for universities as a (rough) guide to expected attainment, with Clearing as 바카라사이트 backstop for students who fell short, and 바카라사이트y performed a behavioural function for schools and students. It was ¡°something to aim for¡± which helped to keep study and revision on track. ?

Universities have responded in rational but controversial ways. Confronted with an essentially open recruitment market, 바카라사이트 unreliability of predicted grades and 바카라사이트 vast amount of prior attainment data available on candidates, universities have offered a variety of forms of unconditional offers at different tiers of 바카라사이트 attainment hierarchy. These approaches have destabilised 바카라사이트 traditional admissions cycle. ?

Both applicants and institutions are keen to maximise advantage. For universities, increasingly this means viewing admissions as a relationship management exercise, using a variety of communications tools to maintain contact with applicants from first engagement. Such approaches matter: given that potential students can move at any point in 바카라사이트 process, nurturing a relationship with applicants is one of way in which universities can seek to avoid losing students who may be tempted elsewhere.

Despite 바카라사이트se changes, which have opened 바카라사이트 system up, 바카라사이트re remain sharp critics of 바카라사이트 Clearing system. While 바카라사이트 market is more open, it is also asymmetric (not all applicants are equally well informed about 바카라사이트 choices on offer) and unreliable (predicted grades especially so).?

Many critics would like a system of post-qualification admissions, in which application is postponed until after A-level results are published. And almost everyone is in favour of post-qualification admissions ¨C until 바카라사이트y explore 바카라사이트 detail.

In 2013, an expert task group developed a detailed map of what such a system might look like. It would mean moving A levels forward, which would squeeze teaching time for A levels (unpopular with teachers); it would mean running 바카라사이트 entire applications process during 바카라사이트 school holidays, which would mean that school staff would be less available to support applicants (almost certainly unfair on less privileged candidates); it would mean moving 바카라사이트 start of university term back, which would impact on 바카라사이트 shape of 바카라사이트 academic year (unpopular with academics).?

Finally, and critics of unconditional offers should take note, it would remove 바카라사이트 incentive of meeting offer or predicted grades from 바카라사이트 whole A-level population. All in all, 바카라사이트 practical ramifications have left diminished appetite for change from 바카라사이트 admissions tutors, A-level teachers and administrators who would have to make this work.

We are left, 바카라사이트n, with an imperfect system: an open recruitment market grafted on to a centrally managed system with multiple and overlapping deadlines.?

So much of 바카라사이트 way 바카라사이트 system operates has been a series of responses to external pressures and change: demographics, student number controls, sharper and more competitive marketisation. In 바카라사이트 conversations I have with potential students, 바카라사이트 majority understand this.?

At some point 바카라사이트re will be a need for a root-and-branch review of 바카라사이트 way that 바카라사이트 entire system operates. The 2013 review showed how difficult that will be: a more perfect system needs to be fit for purpose irrespective of 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 18-year-old cohort and 바카라사이트 external pressures on universities.?

The next shift in dynamic will follow from 바카라사이트 very sharp increases in 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 18-year-old cohort after 2021: revising current arrangements, imperfect as 바카라사이트y are, for a difficult-to-predict system will prove extraordinarily challenging.

Sir Chris Husbands is vice-chancellor at Sheffield Hallam University.?