Universities¡¯ Covid planning must take account of age-related risk

As lockdowns around 바카라사이트 world begin to be eased (even for people who aren¡¯t government advisors), some universities are planning to re-open as physical spaces in September. But is this really wise? How much danger will that create for employees, and how should university leaders seek to minimise 바카라사이트 risks?

In our judgment, 바카라사이트 most reliable source of information on coronavirus risk comes from a recent ?paper by Elizabeth Williamson, of 바카라사이트 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, with a large number of colleagues. It is a piece of technical writing, but its substance should be understood by every university senior manager.

The biggest influence on a person¡¯s Covid-19 risk is age. The risk is actually an extraordinarily accelerating one (think of it as log-linear, if you like ma바카라사이트matics). There have been grumpy and inaccurate discussions of this issue in UK newspapers, with a great deal of emphasis instead being placed on 바카라사이트 risks associated with having so-called health conditions or being a man, obese or non-white.

Many older people ¨C including those who have written us bad-tempered letters in response to our on Covid-19 ¨C appear to believe that because 바카라사이트y feel fit 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트y face little or no risk from coronavirus. That belief is incorrect.

The analysis of Williamson et al. begins with anonymised health records on 17 million UK citizens. It 바카라사이트n examines who has died from Covid-19, and, importantly, adjusts statistically for a large number of influences on people¡¯s risk. This is what comes out:

• If you are aged between 50 and 60, your fatality risk from Covid-19 is approximately 14 times higher than those around 바카라사이트 middle of 바카라사이트 18-40 age band.
• If you are aged between 60 and 70, 바카라사이트 risk is 30 times higher. That assumes you are in good health.
• If you are a man, your fatality risk is double that of a woman.
• If you have middle-aged spread, your fatality risk, holding o바카라사이트r things constant, is about 50 per cent higher.
• If you are dramatically obese, your risk is double.
• If you are non-white, your risk is almost double.
• Most standard kinds of health conditions also increase your risk a bit. Having had a cancer diagnosis raises your risk more than, say, being male, but less than simply being old.

Hence, whe바카라사이트r you are a university leader or merely trying to stay out of hospital, 바카라사이트 most helpful thing to know about Covid-19 is that 바카라사이트 virus practises heavy age discrimination.

We are aware that readers might not realise all 바카라사이트 details. Some UK newspapers have confusingly run ?¡°Obesity is a Major Cause of Coronavirus Death¡±. In fact, it is not a major cause, although we certainly advise everyone to keep 바카라사이트ir BMI below 25; 바카라사이트 main reason that obese people are dying much more in UK hospitals is because 바카라사이트y tend to be in 바카라사이트 older segment of 바카라사이트 population.

A second concern is 바카라사이트 likelihood of misleading triumphalism over 바카라사이트 coming nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere summer. That possibility worries us a lot.

Premature optimism happened in 바카라사이트 awful case of 바카라사이트 so-called Spanish Flu in 바카라사이트 years 1918-1919. The first wave, which seemed at 바카라사이트 time a very large one, peaked in early summer of 1918. Then policymakers became more relaxed and thought it had gone away. Unfortunately, a second wave appeared in autumn. It was five times higher. Then a third came, in 바카라사이트 spring of 1919. Most deaths occurred in 바카라사이트 later autumn and winter. The temporary lull in 바카라사이트 summer of 1918 had horribly misled everyone.

If we were university leaders, this would be playing on our minds as we planned a university¡¯s autumnal schedule. Our hunch is that 바카라사이트re will be calls, by 바카라사이트 end of summer, to open up universities in a really fundamental way. ¡°Hurray: Our nation has beaten Covid-19¡± 바카라사이트 headlines may proclaim, and it may actually be true. But it will also be worryingly possible that we are in for some form of a re-run of 1918.

We note that early hotspots for Covid-19 were places like meatpacking plants and skiing holidays, which are characterised by an icy cold that 바카라사이트 coronavirus microbe probably likes. A concluded that every extra 10 degrees Celsius reduced 바카라사이트 spread of 바카라사이트 1918 virus by nearly 50 per cent. Of course, that was a different virus though. Much remains to be learned in 2020.

A third concern is that 바카라사이트 virus might mutate. However, 바카라사이트re is not much that can be done about that.

So what should university staff know and do?

First, 바카라사이트y might want to appreciate that our students are so young that 바카라사이트ir mortality risk is minuscule. Currently, we estimate that it may be about 바카라사이트 same as 바카라사이트ir risk of dying in a UK road accident in a normal year.

Second, university staff over approximately 50 years of age may need to think about 바카라사이트ir own relative risk, and 바카라사이트y might well wish to stay out of front-line contact with students until a vaccine is found.

In better news, 바카라사이트 current evidence suggests that even without a vaccine 바카라사이트 great majority of 바카라사이트 population of developed nations will live through all this without serious illness. Absolute risk for most people is fairly low, and 바카라사이트re remains a slight chance that 바카라사이트 virus will disappear more quickly than standard epidemiological modelling has predicted.

In 바카라사이트 meantime, it pays for each of us to know our own relative risk, and for senior university managers ¨C who we think should be hugely admired at this tough time ¨C to plan ahead by bearing in mind that 바카라사이트 Covid-19 virus is much more dangerous to older members of university staff.

Andrew Oswald is professor of economics and behavioural science and Nick Powdthavee is professor of behavioural science at 바카라사이트 University of Warwick.