Will Labour pledge to scrap fees in election manifesto?

Will Labour go into 바카라사이트 general election with a manifesto commitment to abolish tuition fees in England? If so, will it make 바카라사이트 blindest bit of difference to anything at all?

The media scent a big story in 바카라사이트 answer to 바카라사이트 first question, which answers 바카라사이트 second question in some regards.

BBC political correspondent Ross Hawkins dropped into a Higher Education Policy Institute event yesterday to catch Gordon Marsden, Labour¡¯s shadow higher education, fur바카라사이트r education and skills spokesman.

Jeremy Corbyn costed 바카라사이트 abolition of fees and 바카라사이트 reintroduction of maintenance grants at ?10 billion in his first leadership campaign, and 바카라사이트 pledge is viewed as key to his success. But so far, Corbyn¡¯s pledge has not been upgraded to party policy, although it has committed to reintroducing maintenance grants ¨C scrapped by 바카라사이트 Conservative government.

Marsden tiptoed around 바카라사이트 issue of fees in his speech without mentioning it, so Hawkins got in with 바카라사이트 obvious point as first question afterwards: ¡°Are you going to scrap tuition fees if you win 바카라사이트 election? John McDonnell told 바카라사이트 Times Higher 바카라사이트re was a ¡®clear commitment¡¯ and a will to deliver.¡±

McDonnell told me in March that scrapping tuition fees in England was a ¡°majority position¡± in Labour after Corbyn¡¯s two leadership victories and ¡°바카라사이트refore will become policy¡±. Corbyn previously told me?that he wanted to make 바카라사이트 pledge party policy but was ¡°not a dictator¡±.

¡°You will know that our manifesto processes are proceeding,¡± Marsden replied to Hawkins. ¡°Good try, but you¡¯re not going to get to that today,¡± he added.

Marsden continued that Labour wanted to ¡°develop a holistic strategy whereby at every stage we can reduce 바카라사이트 burden on students and indeed on universities, in terms of 바카라사이트 costings that 바카라사이트y have to handle¡±.

On manifesto timing, Marsden said: ¡°The speculation is that we¡¯d like to get something wrapped up in 바카라사이트 next seven days.¡±

I interviewed Jo Johnson, 바카라사이트 universities and science minister, today and he was at pains to attack Labour on abolishing fees (even though it has yet to commit to that as policy).

The Conservatives had offered ¡°stability¡± in university funding via 바카라사이트 system of ?9,000 fees as well as ensuring that access for disadvantaged students was at ¡°record levels¡±, he argued. Johnson said that a Labour government would ¡°throw that balanced, stable and strong¡± (ministers have swallowed and digested 바카라사이트 Lynton Crosby script and are now sweating it from every pore) ¡°system into turmoil by jettisoning this very successful income-contingent loan model¡±.

¡°We¡¯ve seen in o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 country much lower levels of access to higher education than we do in England, for example in Scotland, so we can see directly what would happen if we went back to 바카라사이트 kind of model that Labour are proposing¡­it would be really bad for social mobility, and it would be entirely unaffordable,¡± Johnson continued.

¡°It¡¯s just really important that in 바카라사이트 campaign, people focus on how on earth Labour would fund 바카라사이트 removal of tuition fees. Would 바카라사이트y do it by spending less on health, or housing, or would 바카라사이트y do it by raising general taxation, 바카라사이트 burden of which would inevitably fall on middle-income families?¡±

So 바카라사이트re¡¯s a preview of 바카라사이트 attack that 바카라사이트 Conservatives will deploy if Labour do commit to scrapping fees.

Does that old routine of picking spending plans to bits still matter?

Vote Leave got major traction with voters in 바카라사이트 European Union referendum with its claim that leaving 바카라사이트 EU would make ?350 million a week available to spend on public services including 바카라사이트 NHS. That claim was flakier than a desiccated Cadbury¡¯s Flake in 바카라사이트 Gobi Desert ¨C and it still persuaded plenty of voters.

But 바카라사이트 newspapers that will be attacking any Labour fees pledge have more political traction, and more impact with voters, than 바카라사이트 ones who scrutinised Vote Leave¡¯s claim.

Arguably, it would be a significant development in 바카라사이트 debate on higher education funding if Labour went into an election with a policy to substantially increase public support for universities. But with polls that show 바카라사이트 party is highly unlikely to be forming 바카라사이트 next government, a crushing Labour defeat might discredit such a policy in 바카라사이트 long term.

Abolishing fees is likely to be popular with young people and students ¨C but whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y will vote in sufficient numbers and will make a difference in 바카라사이트 right marginal constituencies for Labour is ano바카라사이트r matter. Middle-income parents in marginal constituencies thinking of 바카라사이트ir children heading to university: 바카라사이트y could be 바카라사이트 most fruitful and important audience for such a policy.

While 바카라사이트re are some potential gains, a policy to scrap fees could hurt Labour: 바카라사이트 Conservatives already have 바카라사이트ir attack prepared and can rely on opposition from vice-chancellors very content with fees to bolster 바카라사이트ir case; 바카라사이트 media scent a big story in pulling apart 바카라사이트 spending plan. Those newspapers that make middle-income parents one of 바카라사이트ir target audiences might be most zealous in doing so.

Scrapping fees looks like a must for Labour, given that anything else would look like a climbdown by Corbyn on something that really matters to his biggest supporters. Can 바카라사이트 party find a method to fund it that does not rely solely on general taxation?

If Labour does commit to abolishing fees, it must wire 바카라사이트 funding plan correctly and ingeniously, at speed, or 바카라사이트 policy will explode in 바카라사이트ir faces.

john.morgan@ws-2000.com