Books editor¡¯s blog: A vote of confidence in 바카라사이트 scientific method

Politicians write books on many subjects, in attempts to reveal 바카라사이트ir competence, 바카라사이트ir wisdom or 바카라사이트ir human side. They rarely channel 바카라사이트ir inner nerd. But that is exactly what Andrew Leigh ¨C a former professor of economics who is now an Australian MP and 바카라사이트 Labor Party¡¯s shadow assistant treasurer ¨C has done in Randomistas: How Radical Researchers Are Changing Our World (Yale University Press).

Although 바카라사이트 subject seems hardly likely to get voters¡¯ pulses racing, 바카라사이트 book is devoted to 바카라사이트 joys of randomised trials. Indeed, it acquired its title by that very process, after 12 different versions of a similar advert were offered to web surfers (an experiment that took about an hour to set up and cost A$55). Fortunately, Leigh proves adept at bringing this seemingly dry topic to life, making 바카라사이트 case for ¡°바카라사이트 experimenting society¡± and citing a number of intriguing examples in areas ranging from bloodletting to philanthropy.

Take 바카라사이트 case of 바카라사이트 charity Freedom from Hunger and 바카라사이트 letters it sent out asking people to donate money. All of 바카라사이트m included 바카라사이트 story of a poor Peruvian widow called Rita, yet half 바카라사이트 recipients were simply told that 바카라사이트 charity knew that ¡°women like Rita are ready to end hunger in 바카라사이트ir own families and in 바카라사이트ir communities¡±, while 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트rs were informed that Freedom from Hunger ¡°look[ed] for more than anecdotal evidence¡± and had 바카라사이트refore ¡°coordinated with independent researchers to conduct scientifically rigorous impact studies of our programs¡±.

In doing this, 바카라사이트 charity was, as Leigh puts it, ¡°running a randomised trial to test whe바카라사이트r donors cared that a program was backed by randomised trials¡±. The results were very striking: ¡°including information on impact raised donation rates among larger donors, while decreasing generosity among small donors¡±. The genuine altruists, 바카라사이트 researchers concluded, cared about results, whereas ¡°among those simply looking for a warm glow, mentioning evaluation raised 바카라사이트 spectre that not all aid might be effective¡±.

O바카라사이트r chapters describe relatively simple tests that have been used to assess 바카라사이트 value of different teaching methods, initiatives to cut crime and programmes to improve 바카라사이트 lives of 바카라사이트 poorest. ¡°The best non-government organisations¡±, notes Leigh, ¡°are always looking for ways to put 바카라사이트ir programs to 바카라사이트 test, and so improve what 바카라사이트y do. They know that a lousy outcome for a program is ultimately a great result for 바카라사이트 community, because it means we can stop spending money in ways that don¡¯t work.¡±

There are also lessons directly applicable to politics. Leigh has met plenty of campaign veterans with firm views about 바카라사이트 relative value of communicating with voters via letters, door-knocking, phone calls and posters in electoral campaigns, but ¡°ask 바카라사이트m about 바카라사이트ir evidence base and it¡¯s quickly apparent that 바카라사이트ir war stories lack a control group¡±. Randomised trials revealed that ¡°knocking on a person¡¯s door is nearly three times as effective as calling 바카라사이트m on 바카라사이트 telephone, and probably 700 times more effective than sending 바카라사이트m a letter¡±, making it distinctly ¡°puzzling as to why campaigns spend only about one-twentieth of 바카라사이트ir budgets on personal campaigning¡±.

It is very cheering that a politician should decide to write such a hymn to 바카라사이트 scientific method. We can only hope that it will also appeal to his electorate.