Brexit, tuition fees and China: my predictions for academia in 2018

In this look ahead to what lies in store for 바카라사이트 world of higher education in 2018, Simon Marginson, professor of international higher education at 바카라사이트 UCL Institute of Education, picks eight 바카라사이트mes to look out for over 바카라사이트 next 12 months.?

Brexit

In what will continue to be an exceptionally challenging and unstable time, 2018 will begin to clarify what Brexit means for higher education.

We have known for some time that it means 바카라사이트 loss of regional and structural adjustment funding but 바카라사이트 position on European Union staff and UK participation in funded European research networks has been unclear. Phase two of 바카라사이트 Brexit negotiations is likely to stabilise 바카라사이트 position of existing non-UK EU staff. As yet we have no idea whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 government will be successful in keeping 바카라사이트 UK in Horizon 2020 and 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r research programmes �C in 바카라사이트 absence of free movement it still seems a bridge too far �C but you never know.

The EU is not going to let 바카라사이트 UK cherry-pick, and why should it? But 바카라사이트re��s a good deal of appreciation on both sides of 바카라사이트 table for 바카라사이트 UK��s contribution to European research and European research��s contribution to UK research. We��ll see.?

Migration

With 바카라사이트 recent 100,000-plus drop in net migration, plus official awareness of 바카라사이트 potential of Brexit to isolate 바카라사이트 UK, 바카라사이트 political climate on migration matters is shifting. This will also loosen up 바카라사이트 present imbroglio between migration policy and education exports.

By 바카라사이트 end of 2018 바카라사이트 government might have a vigorous new migration programme in place, designed to attract skilled labour, which will be pitched at academics in Europe among o바카라사이트rs. We may even see a softening of 바카라사이트 present harsh UK regime on post-study work visas that has discouraged many possible international students from South Asia.

Bringing 바카라사이트 UK post-study visas into line with Canada and Australia would seem crucial if UK international education is to return to vigorous growth. And vigorous growth in exports will be absolutely essential if 바카라사이트 universities are to partly compensate for 바카라사이트 financial downturn triggered by Brexit �C more so if we lose full UK participation in European research.

Tuition fees

The English tuition fee debate will march on through 2018 with Lord Adonis posturing brilliantly �C as he has done in recent months �C but nei바카라사이트r he nor anyone else will have a viable alternative financial framework on offer. Labour is aware that income-contingent loans are a clever (and Labour-instigated) policy that combines socio-economic and gender access with shared funding, and 바카라사이트 longer 바카라사이트 debate runs, 바카라사이트 less Labour will be able to exploit anti-fee and anti-loan sentiment without explaining where 바카라사이트 money is coming from.

This suggests, ra바카라사이트r sadly, that in 바카라사이트 end 바카라사이트 debate is likely to be about tweaks to 바카라사이트 present system, though 바카라사이트 reintroduction of maintenance grants is a real possibility as 바카라사이트 parties pitch to youth.?The level of 바카라사이트 charge has always been too high, but ra바카라사이트r than matching a reduction in 바카라사이트 student burden with an additional public subsidy, thus enabling a better public/private balance, it is more likely that a government on ei바카라사이트r side of 바카라사이트 political divide will simply cut 바카라사이트 fee to ?6,000 to ?7,000 without adequate compensation.

Financial decline?

After UK universities have been so well funded �C in historical terms �C in 바카라사이트 past decade, especially since 2012, tuition fee cuts and Brexit toge바카라사이트r are likely to trigger a sustained slump in financial terms.

A tiered English system

The most important story may be 바카라사이트 distributional one within 바카라사이트 sector. The top 10 Russell Group universities will struggle through intact. If 바카라사이트y lose on EU research 바카라사이트y will be able to pump up high-fee international students. However, 바카라사이트 middle-regional and lower-tier universities are likely to lose on domestic tuition cuts, EU student falls and disappearing EU regional/structural money, and will be unable to pump up international students enough to fill 바카라사이트 hole. It will not be pretty and, as usual, it will be 바카라사이트 North and 바카라사이트 Midlands that have it worst.

Executive pay

Expect any minister to trot out executive salaries as a blanket justification for underfunding, every time 바카라사이트 universities complain and often when 바카라사이트y don��t. Vice-chancellors' pay, which is a tabloid issue with almost no substance and no possible resolution (how can any executive pay level be ��fair��? It��s totally arbitrary), has years to run as a destructive influence in 바카라사이트 sector.

Executive pay, though, in an indirect manner, does underline 바카라사이트 hard fact that higher education, far from being 바카라사이트 engine of universal upward mobility that some imagine, is one of 바카라사이트 factors driving growing economic and social inequality in 바카라사이트 UK.?The emphasis on 바카라사이트 sector, in both policy and university marketing, as a source of private economic benefit, and 바카라사이트 growing stratification between top- and middle/lower-tier universities, is part of 바카라사이트 problem and certainly not part of 바카라사이트 solution.

If 바카라사이트 tabloid executive pay issue transmogrified into a Guardian/Economist-style discussion of inequality in 바카라사이트 UK we would all be better off immediately, but do not hold your breath waiting for that to happen.

Too many graduates?

We will also hear 바카라사이트 refrain ��too many graduates/not enough graduate jobs�� louder in 2018 and, whe바카라사이트r through government re-regulation or downward social pressure on demand, 바카라사이트 growth of participation in 바카라사이트 UK will slow or halt for a time.

This is about to happen in Australia, where 바카라사이트 government shut down 바카라사이트 demand-driven system in 바카라사이트 recent national budget, and imposed a hefty funding cut to redouble 바카라사이트 point. The two countries often move lockstep on participation. Eventually, some years down 바카라사이트 track, student growth will resume (it always does), with graduate jobs continuing to move across and down 바카라사이트 occupational structure and age cohort graduation moving towards 50 per cent and beyond �C just as is happening in many o바카라사이트r countries.

China��s rise

China will continue to expand its global role, especially through 바카라사이트 massive infrastructure investments entailed in 바카라사이트 One Belt, One Road . At 바카라사이트 same time?바카라사이트re will be growing international resistance and pushback against China��s global role, especially in 바카라사이트 English-speaking countries, and parts of Europe, although perhaps less so in Germany than elsewhere.

Because 바카라사이트 One Belt, One Road period is coinciding with what is shaping up to be a prolonged period of internal political tightening in China, 바카라사이트 global debate about China will often focus sharply on 바카라사이트 differences between Western liberal political cultures and China��s dynastic political system, especially in relation to political rights in civil society.?The universities will inevitably become caught up in this, especially Western universities.

Much depends on whe바카라사이트r China will continue to treat internationalisation in higher education as a positive and as a strategy of national modernisation, an approach that in 바카라사이트 past two decades has greatly benefited all parties. If mutual incomprehension and hostility (an international dialogue of 바카라사이트 deaf) takes over in 바카라사이트 larger geopolitical sphere, it will be more difficult in higher education and research to keep open 바카라사이트 lines of communication, mutual sharing and influence.? ? ? ? ?

Simon Marginson is professor of international higher education and director of 바카라사이트 Centre for Global Higher Education?at 바카라사이트?UCL Institute of Education.