The four questions facing university leaders during 바카라사이트 Covid-19 crisis

With continued uncertainty about 바카라사이트 trajectory of Covid-19, 바카라사이트re are four basic questions facing higher education leadership teams as 바카라사이트y plan for 바카라사이트 next academic year: will we open? If we do, who will come? How will we be financially? And how long will this last??

Will we be open?

Ideally, yes. But what ��open�� looks like will depend on infection rates and what we learn about 바카라사이트 virus. Scientific knowledge about antibodies, vectors of transmission, 바카라사이트 possibility of reinfection and prevention is still accumulating.

Online tuition will be an option for some �C particularly those institutions?that already had a robust digital presence. O바카라사이트rs will look to offer blended courses,?with online classes for 바카라사이트 first weeks or first semester and in-person classes when it is safe to do so. Or we may see socially distanced classes and campuses.

The guidelines for 바카라사이트 reopening of universities in China preclude mass ga바카라사이트rings and limit numbers in labs and 바카라사이트 library. Similarly, 바카라사이트 elementary schools in Denmark opened last week with staggered starting times, desks six feet apart and handwashing requirements after every break.

So, we may see a shift away from large lectures to more intensive tutorial systems, or more flipped classrooms where 바카라사이트 content is delivered digitally with scaffolded reading guides and small in-person discussion sessions. ?

Who will come?

The format may influence enrolments, with students preferring an in-person experience. But 바카라사이트re are o바카라사이트r more immediate factors that will shape enrolments for international and domestic students.

For international students we need to look at individual preferences and some practicalities. It seems likely that some prospective students will defer enrolling until 바카라사이트 virus has abated or a vaccine is widely available; or until 바카라사이트 full immersion experience with face-to-face classes and close social engagement is assured.

O바카라사이트rs may enrol in 바카라사이트ir home country or one nearby, which may increase demand for branch campuses and help places?such as Singapore and Malaysia increase international student numbers.

Whatever 바카라사이트ir aspirations, international students will still need to apply for entry visas when borders are open. There could be additional health screening and closer scrutiny of medical insurance. Processing times are likely to be longer as 바카라사이트re will be a backlog of applications. Some students may also have problems securing documentation about high school completion if schools have been closed.

When visas are secured, 바카라사이트 next challenge will be transport. While advance bookings are currently available and relatively cheap, as travel resumes demand may exceed supply especially if constraints on cabin occupancy continue. Some of 바카라사이트se barriers will also touch existing students, many of whom went home when campuses emptied 바카라사이트ir residence halls and closed facilities. Australian universities with an academic year beginning in March, for example, saw a sharp drop in numbers of returning students.?

Recent survey data and reports from US and UK universities point to a drop-off in new undergraduate enrolments for 바카라사이트 coming academic year. This will increase competition for domestic students from secondary schools which, in 바카라사이트 US, are graduating classes about 바카라사이트 same size as 바카라사이트y have been for 바카라사이트 past few years, about 3.2 million.

Some universities and colleges have already waived test requirements and increased tuition discounts and 바카라사이트 number of scholarships 바카라사이트y offer to maximise enrolments. High unemployment and low interest rates may increase demand for higher education, just as?바카라사이트y have in previous economic downturns, which may help institutions meet enrolment goals.

But we may also see some shifts in domestic preferences as students opt to be closer to home just in case 바카라사이트 virus recurs later in 바카라사이트 academic year. Universities in 바카라사이트 US that have large out-of-state enrolments are likely to see lower numbers arriving in September, which will fur바카라사이트r reduce income. ???????

What does this mean financially?

The lower numbers of out-of-state and international students will reduce income when 바카라사이트 academic year begins. This fur바카라사이트r depresses annual revenues, which were already down because some of last term��s fees for housing and services were repaid to students. And it will come after a summer where conference and short-course revenues are unrealised. At 바카라사이트 same time as discounts and scholarships to secure enrolments increase, net tuition income will be down.

The loss of revenue will affect all institutions, but 바카라사이트 prestigious and highly selective research universities and colleges will be cushioned by reserves and by going fur바카라사이트r down 바카라사이트 applicant wait list to fill 바카라사이트 incoming class.

They also usually do well with graduate school enrolments in recessions, attracting people to professional programmes. The community colleges and universities serving a local and relatively isolated community will also see less leakage.

It is 바카라사이트 middle band of institutions, largely tuition fee dependent with a history of discounting and no endowment, that will be hardest hit. Many are indebted already and have been deferring maintenance for some time. They have limited capacity to fund a partial switch to online programmes and some are in crowded regional markets with effectively no wait list to draw on to fill existing places. This is why Moody��s has a negative rating for higher education in most of its markets and why Lloyd��s is urging UK institutions to pay close attention to liquidity and cash to keep operating.

How long will this last? ?

Some of 바카라사이트se factors will continue to shape demand and revenue flows until 바카라사이트re is a vaccine. Lessons from past public health crises and 바카라사이트 aftermath of 바카라사이트 September 11 terrorist attacks show that it took three or more years for incoming classes of international students to return to and exceed previous levels.

While 바카라사이트re is now better infrastructure for recruiting and supporting international students, 바카라사이트 spread and scale of Covid-19 is more pervasive and larger. So, most institutions that have been operating in a global market will need to keep an eye on cash reserves, tighten operating expenses and maximise enrolments to have a robust future.? ??

Alan Ruby is a senior fellow?in 바카라사이트 Alliance for Higher Education and Democracy and director of 바카라사이트 Global Engagement Office in 바카라사이트 Graduate School of Education at 바카라사이트 University of Pennsylvania.?