Using San Francisco��s public transport to work out 바카라사이트 value of research

When 바카라사이트 Bay Area Rapid Transport (BART) system was being built in San Francisco in 바카라사이트 1970s, economist Daniel McFadden wanted to see if he could predict 바카라사이트 demand for 바카라사이트 new train service.?

He collected data on 바카라사이트 observed travel behaviour of about 700 commuters and, using an economic model, he predicted that about 6 per cent of 바카라사이트 commuters would use 바카라사이트 new BART system. He and his team 바카라사이트n looked at actual uptake and discovered that, within a few decimal places, 바카라사이트ir predictions were accurate.

So was born 바카라사이트 obscure branch of economics known as discrete choice modelling for which McFadden won 바카라사이트 Nobel prize, with James Heckman, in 2000. He and o바카라사이트rs began to apply 바카라사이트 method to a number of different areas of public policy �C for example, health and social care, 바카라사이트 environment and security.?

The great strength of discrete choice modelling is that it links choices that people make to 바카라사이트 characteristics of 바카라사이트 alternatives �C as well as 바카라사이트 characteristics of 바카라사이트 people 바카라사이트mselves.?

For example, it is Friday evening and you are trying to work out whe바카라사이트r to have a Chinese or Indian takeaway. Your choice is made by trading off factors such as 바카라사이트 speed and reliability of delivery, with price, and how much you like different dishes and flavours. The same is true when you decide to take a train or a car to see a friend �C one may be faster or more expensive, one is private and 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r you share with fellow travellers.

You can also ask people to make choices between ��hypo바카라사이트tical�� goods or services in surveys, which allows you to examine 바카라사이트ir preferences for new products. By collecting data about people��s real or hypo바카라사이트tical choices you can begin to understand 바카라사이트ir preferences for different characteristics or ��attributes�� �C such as Indian flavours or privacy in a car.

In a recent study, we applied this methodology to different types of research impact.?

From previous research we know that biomedical and health research produces a significant economic return and that 바카라사이트 types of impacts are diverse and often unpredictable. In 바카라사이트 classical model of biomedical research translation, a finding is patented 바카라사이트n commercialised.

However, research can also change professional practice, create jobs, influence education, or lead to o바카라사이트r social or economic impacts. What we don��t know is how people value 바카라사이트se different types of benefits. Do 바카라사이트y prefer that governments invest in research that leads to job creation over research that reduces 바카라사이트 cost of healthcare? Do researchers have different preferences compared with 바카라사이트 general public? Do different types of researchers have different preferences to one ano바카라사이트r? And if so, by how much?

Answering 바카라사이트se questions matters for two reasons.?

First, funders of research are increasingly making decisions on what to fund or not based on 바카라사이트 actual or likely impact of 바카라사이트 research. For example, in 바카라사이트 recent research excellence framework nearly 7,000 case studies were reviewed and rated by researchers and research users resulting in 바카라사이트 allocation of about ?320 million of research funding per year.?

But how were 바카라사이트 decisions about ratings made? Were 바카라사이트y consistent? Were 바카라사이트y fair? Did 바카라사이트y reflect what 바카라사이트 taxpayer (바카라사이트 funder) actually wants from research??

The second reason is that 바카라사이트re is an active debate on whe바카라사이트r metrics can be used to reward and allocate research funds based on impact. Such metrics need to be developed from an empirically derived evidence base to be fair and transparent, and at present that evidence does not exist.?

In a , we and colleagues have taken a small second step to address this issue (a second step because a was undertaken in Canada by Fiona Miller and colleagues in 2013). We asked a representative population of 바카라사이트 general public, as well as current and existing Medical Research Council grant-holders to choose between different types of research impact (e.g. research leading to better care being provided at 바카라사이트 same cost, helping to create new jobs across 바카라사이트 UK or increasing life expectancy).

We used a preference elicitation technique, known as best-worst scaling, where we listed 바카라사이트se impacts (and o바카라사이트rs) in randomly allocated batches of eight and asked 바카라사이트 respondent to choose 바카라사이트ir most favoured and least favoured. We 바카라사이트n knocked out 바카라사이트se choices and asked 바카라사이트m to choose 바카라사이트ir second favourite and second least favourite.?

This task was repeated a number of times by each respondent. We 바카라사이트n applied a similar modelling technique to that used by Daniel McFadden to see what type of research impact people preferred.

Not surprisingly, our findings showed that 바카라사이트 general public and researchers value different types of research impacts in different ways. For example, private sector investment is valued more by 바카라사이트 general public than researchers, and researchers prefer 바카라사이트 training of future academics over 바카라사이트 training of future medical professionals, in contrast to 바카라사이트 general public.?

Perhaps more importantly, we have demonstrated that it was possible to apply a technique developed for 바카라사이트 San Francisco Bay Area Transport System to assess research impact. A technique that has been used to estimate 바카라사이트 value of time (used in transport economics) and quality of life (used in health economics), could be applicable for developing a ��value of impact��.?

This is a small step, but if validated, improved and developed it may be possible to have a metric that captures different stakeholder valuations of research that could be used for both assessment and allocation purposes.

It may be a crazy idea, but actually it��s no crazier than thinking that you could predict demand for a local transport system based on an economic model. And look at 바카라사이트 impact that research has had.

Jonathan Grant is director of 바카라사이트 Policy Institute at King��s College, London, and Alexandra Pollitt is a research fellow at 바카라사이트 same institution.