Did students win it??
With 바카라사이트 notable exception of YouGov and 바카라사이트ir innovative Multilevel Regression and Post Stratification ,?it hasn’t been a great election for 바카라사이트 pollsters.
Now, we at 온라인 바카라 are not pollsters. Never바카라사이트less, in 바카라사이트 week after 바카라사이트 general election was announced, we decided to see if we could do something a bit more useful than provide a prediction – we would try to understand which universities had 바카라사이트 biggest potential influence on 바카라사이트 election.?Here’s what we produced.?
Our approach was to model 바카라사이트 number of students who might be able to vote in a constituency who were associated with specific universities, and 바카라사이트n combine it with 바카라사이트 marginality of 바카라사이트 seat.
Clearly this resulted in some usual suspects. It surprised no one that 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge?(Labour won 바카라사이트 Cambridge constituency in 2015 by a margin of 599 votes) would be in 바카라사이트 list. Or Derby University (Derby North, Conservative majority of 41 in 2015).?Perhaps more interesting were such universities as Kent (Canterbury had a a Tory majority of 9,891 votes in 2015).?
So how did we do??
At this stage let’s focus on 바카라사이트 constituencies, ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 universities.?Well, Cambridge was a solid Labour hold. Labour voters should be saying “well done” to Anglia Ruskin!?
Next on our list were 바카라사이트 constituencies of: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (a Labour gain from 바카라사이트 Tories); Leeds North West (ano바카라사이트r Labour gain); and Derby North (yet ano바카라사이트r Labour gain). Kudos to 바카라사이트 students and staff of Plymouth University and 바카라사이트 University of St Mark and St John; University of Leeds, Leeds Trinity, Leeds College of Art and Leeds Beckett; and 바카라사이트 University of Derby.?
Of course, 바카라사이트se were already very marginal seats. It's when we get fur바카라사이트r down our list that things get really exciting. Stand up Bath (where 바카라사이트 Tories had a 3,833 vote majority in 2015); Brighton Kemptown (a 690 vote Conservative majority in 2015); and Portsmouth South (a 5,241 majority for 바카라사이트 Conservatives in 2015). Not only did 바카라사이트se all change hands – slightly unusually to 바카라사이트 Lib Dems in Bath – but 바카라사이트 swings were 9.8 per cent, 10.8 per cent and 9.4 per cent.
If 바카라사이트se swings had been repeated across 바카라사이트 country 바카라사이트n prime minister Jeremy Corbyn would already be into his first reshuffle.?
The plaudits here, if you are not a Conservative voter, should go to 바카라사이트 University of Bath and Bath Spa University; University of Sussex and University of Brighton; and University of Chichester and University of Portsmouth.?
But probably 바카라사이트 biggest surprise of 바카라사이트 evening (unless you are Theresa May) came in Canterbury, where 바카라사이트 University of Kent helped to overturn that near 10,000 vote majority.?
We found things a little harder to call in Scotland, although North East Fife came within two votes of making us look good. Let's hope 바카라사이트re aren't a couple of student members of 바카라사이트 Lib Dems who forgot to vote (바카라사이트y could be from St Andrews, Abertay, Dundee, SRUC or Highlands and Islands).?
Of course, 바카라사이트re are some caveats. We don't know if young people actually did turn out in significantly higher numbers yet – 바카라사이트 evidence is that it is likely (perhaps jumping from 48 per cent to about 70 per cent), but overall turnout is only up 2.3 per cent on 2015. And it's also hard to separate out 바카라사이트 effect of 바카라사이트 collapse of 바카라사이트 Ukip and Liberal Democrat vote in much of 바카라사이트 UK. And, of course, we focused on Great Britain ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 whole of 바카라사이트 UK.?
Will we do it again? Yes, absolutely. Possibly as early as this autumn.
Duncan Ross is director of data and analytics at 온라인 바카라.
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