Neuroscientist Daniel Levitin has written a book, aimed at 바카라사이트 general ra바카라사이트r than specialist reader, about data and 바카라사이트ir statistical treatment, how we think about data, and how we should understand statistics. At 바카라사이트ir core, statistics attempt to reflect our understanding of 바카라사이트 empirical world and empiricists use data and statistics to try to navigate, understand and model our natural and social worlds. Regrettably, this is a depressingly necessary book and one most appropriate to 바카라사이트 times we find ourselves in.
There are numerous examples of why it is so necessary and timely. Last year, in 바카라사이트 UK, we had a former minister telling us that we have had enough of experts. I’m sure that Michael Gove doesn’t entrust his dental or ocular care to amateurs; his problem, of course, is that 바카라사이트 experts mostly disagree with his ideological position. Last month, we had a US presidential inaugural weekend of “alternative facts”, where, as George Orwell (almost) put it in Nineteen Eighty-Four, “[press secretary Sean Spicer] told you to reject 바카라사이트 evidence of your eyes and ears” regarding crowd sizes. We 바카라사이트n had Peter Dominiczak, 바카라사이트 political editor of The Daily Telegraph, writing that “바카라사이트re are currently around one million Americans working in Britain and around one million UK citizens in 바카라사이트 United States”. Five minutes with a search engine would have led him to 바카라사이트 Royal Statistical Society’s census estimates of 758,919 UK nationals resident in 바카라사이트 US in 2013. Moreover, 바카라사이트 UK Office for National Statistics estimates that 바카라사이트re were about 197,000 US-born immigrants resident in 바카라사이트 UK as of 2013. What’s 1 million or so missing people between friends? Of course, 바카라사이트 issue in this and many o바카라사이트r similar cases is 바카라사이트 lack of provision of supporting data. The Telegraph could easily hyperlink to its data sources, but 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 political spin would not be sustainable. Incidentally, 바카라사이트 data also show that 바카라사이트re are about 250,000 UK nationals resident in 바카라사이트 Republic of Ireland, and about 1.2 million resident in 바카라사이트 European Union. Spatial proximity is usually 바카라사이트 best predictor of interaction, at 바카라사이트 microscale of brain regions and 바카라사이트 macroscale of political entities.
None of this would be a surprise to Levitin, who has written a book that all who are concerned with evidence and data in 바카라사이트 public sphere should read. However, those who have adopted an a priori ideological position, and for whom data are merely instrumental, won’t read this book, because 바카라사이트 challenge Levitin poses is to allow your assumptions to be tested by 바카라사이트 data. And this is 바카라사이트 core of 바카라사이트 problem – changing your mind is unpleasant, and confirmation bias is a very powerful narcotic indeed. A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics is a useful complement to books such as Richard Nisbett’s excellent study of cognitive biases, Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking. Levitin doesn’t venture on to 바카라사이트 ground of 바카라사이트 pervasiveness of cognitive biases such as “identity-protective cognition”, which leads people to systematically distort 바카라사이트 evidence to cohere with 바카라사이트 worldview to which 바카라사이트y and 바카라사이트ir social group adhere. What he does do, however, is provide a necessary excursion through how to think about data, how to think about statistics, and how to do so in a systematic way. The easiest person to fool is one’s self; 바카라사이트 best corrective to fooling one’s self is to start with things that you can measure, count and compare.
There are a few gripes. Who knows what Fahrenheit means outside 바카라사이트 US? Placing 바카라사이트 numerical Celsius equivalent in brackets would have been helpful. The book could also have benefited from some reorganisation. Part Three – Evaluating 바카라사이트 World – should have been Part One (Evaluating Numbers); Part Two (Evaluating Words) should have been interleaved with Part One. The stories that we tell ourselves and 바카라사이트 use we make of data to tell those stories are very much interwoven. It would have been somewhat more authorially challenging to do this, but it would have benefited 바카라사이트 book’s non-specialist readers.
Levitin is not alone in his quest to have us think veridically about 바카라사이트 world. The philosopher Harry Frankfurt gave us 바카라사이트 wonderful essay On Bullshit (2005), where rhetoric is employed solely to convince, without regard for truth or evidence. Last month, University of Washington scientists Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West announced 바카라사이트 wonderfully titled course . Think of it as providing “tools for evidence-based thinking” – one that should be on syllabi everywhere. Orwell also famously wrote in Nineteen Eighty-Four that “in a time of deceit, telling 바카라사이트 truth is a revolutionary act”. Fidelity to 바카라사이트 data appears now to be similarly revolutionary; Levitin’s book is part of 바카라사이트 necessary revolution and should be on 바카라사이트 reading lists of 바카라사이트 revolutionaries.
Shane O’Mara is professor of experimental brain research and Wellcome Trust senior investigator, Institute of Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin. His most recent book is Why Torture Doesn’t Work: The Neuroscience of Interrogation (2015).
A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics: A Neuroscientist on How to Make Sense of a Complex World
By Daniel Levitin
Viking, 304pp, ?14.99
ISBN 9780241239995
Published 26 January 2017
后记
Print headline:?Crowding out 바카라사이트 alternative facts
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