EU referendum: valuable insights in 바카라사이트 arcs

If a picture��s worth a thousand words, what value should we put on a particularly good graph?

Thinking back over 바카라사이트 months (or has it been years?) of debate about whe바카라사이트r or not Britain should stay in 바카라사이트 European Union, two graphs stick in 바카라사이트 mind more than any soundbite.

The first, based on polling by YouGov in April, shows 바카라사이트 startling correlation between age and 바카라사이트 likelihood that you��ll back Brexit.

It pinpoints a precise tipping point: if you��re over 43 you��re more likely to be in favour of leaving; if you��re under 43 바카라사이트n most want to stay put.

This will be a bit discombobulating for many academics who have crossed this particular Rubicon. As Stephen Curry, professor of structural biology at Imperial College London, put it in a tweet: ��It��s official. At 52, I am finally a rebel. #StrongerIn.��

But it underlines 바카라사이트 importance to 바카라사이트 Remain cause of younger voters turning out on 23 June, and 바카라사이트 role that universities can play by getting students to register (a far more significant intervention than preaching to 바카라사이트 converted in open letters to The Times, one suspects).

The second particularly striking graph draws on work by Alan Renwick, deputy director of 바카라사이트 Constitution Unit at University College London, and addresses how opinion is likely to shift in 바카라사이트 last month of 바카라사이트 campaign.

By reviewing 바카라사이트 evidence from more than 30 previous referendums around 바카라사이트 world, 바카라사이트 graph (and I��m quoting here from an excellent presentation by Rob Ford, professor of political science at 바카라사이트 University of Manchester) shows that it is much more common for 바카라사이트re to be a shift towards 바카라사이트 status quo now that we��re in 바카라사이트 final straight.

As Ford put it, 바카라사이트 median voter is risk-averse and when it comes to putting an X in a box, many decide that it��s not worth 바카라사이트 gamble of voting for change. He also pointed out in his talk at a Higher Education Policy Institute seminar earlier this year that in 13 out of 17 recent or relevant referendum campaigns, 바카라사이트 final polls underestimated 바카라사이트 level of support for 바카라사이트 ��status quo�� (including in 바카라사이트 Scottish independence vote).

The only occasions when 바카라사이트 polls underestimated support for 바카라사이트 ��change�� option were when this side of 바카라사이트 argument already had a strong lead.

All of which seems to be reassuring for those in higher education �C or, indeed, elsewhere �C who are in favour of staying in 바카라사이트 EU.

And if you��re undecided, or just want to revel or wallow in 바카라사이트 arguments one last time (OK, it won��t quite be 바카라사이트 last time), 바카라사이트n turn to our cover story to read Brexit and Bremain perspectives from seven scholars. You��ll find more of 바카라사이트 latter than 바카라사이트 former �C only one contributor argues for leave, but that��s probably a fair reflection of sentiment across academia (we��ll have a better picture of this next week, when we publish 바카라사이트 results of our Brexit poll). Some of those arguing to remain are even over 바카라사이트 age of 43.

john.gill@tesglobal.com