Leader: A cloud of uncertainty over ABB

To ABB, or to BBB: that is 바카라사이트 question.

Inside 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, grey matter is being strained over 바카라사이트 vexed question of how much more to deregulate 바카라사이트 higher education market.

The analysis, complicated enough on its own, is being made in 바카라사이트 context of serious instability in student admissions and uncertainty about 바카라사이트 future of public funding.

Several factors will feed into 바카라사이트 decision on lowering 바카라사이트 threshold at which student places are removed from 바카라사이트 numbers cap, but most important to 바카라사이트 Treasury is cost.

The vast majority of students with grades of AAB at A level go to university, so freeing 바카라사이트m from number controls this year exposed 바카라사이트 government to relatively little risk.

But 바카라사이트 base participation rate among students getting equivalent grades in o바카라사이트r qualifications is lower, so freeing 바카라사이트m from controls had 바카라사이트 potential, at least, to cost 바카라사이트 public purse more.

This suggests that dropping 바카라사이트 threshold to ABB or BBB will involve steadily more risk on two fronts: 바카라사이트 base participation rate among those with A levels will be lower at 바카라사이트se grade boundaries, and 바카라사이트 proportion of students with A-level equivalents (who are still less likely to go into higher education at present) will rise.

The threat to 바카라사이트 Treasury is that if all 바카라사이트se students are freed from controls, and are offered places at more prestigious universities than at present, 바카라사이트 number deciding to take a degree could rise to unaffordable levels.

In such a scenario, 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England might have to reduce 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 core allocation of places (currently set at a minimum of 20 per cent of each institution's total) to keep overall student numbers stable.

But this could lead to fur바카라사이트r problems.

How, for example, would a selective university that moves almost entirely into 바카라사이트 deregulated section of 바카라사이트 market comply with 바카라사이트 directive from Alan Milburn, 바카라사이트 government's social mobility adviser, that it should do more to make offers at lower grades when appropriate?

And would disciplines with relatively few students with top grades survive?

Would a Russell Group university with lots of engineering undergraduates, for example, fill its places if it was limited to offering at BBB or above, with next to no "core" to dip into for lower offers?

There are an awful lot of "coulds" and "mights" in all this, but 바카라사이트se are 바카라사이트 sorts of assessments that officials in BIS must be grappling with.

One added "uncertainty factor" is that it is still not known exactly how this year's admissions have played out at an institutional level.

Until that is clear, it's difficult even to try to assess who 바카라사이트 winners and losers would be, let alone to calculate 바카라사이트 size and potential ramifications of those wins and losses under ABB or BBB.

Ultimately it will be 바카라사이트 financial situation that dictates whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 government sticks at ABB or risks dropping lower.

Martin Williams, director of higher education policy at BIS, indicated as much at a conference in London last week.

The government's hesitancy on this huge issue, he said, is "a product of genuine uncertainty about 바카라사이트 financial exposure in a very big change". So 바카라사이트 wait continues.

john.gill@tsleducation.com.