A different world

1. The boom in undergraduate study

Over 바카라사이트 past decade, 바카라사이트 number of people entering higher education has soared. Between 2000 and 2010, 바카라사이트 percentage of adults worldwide who have received tertiary education rose from 19 per cent to 29 per cent, according to 바카라사이트 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation, and all estimates suggest that this growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace.

In 바카라사이트 book Making a Difference: Australian International Education (2012), contributor and higher education consultant Bob Goddard estimates that 바카라사이트 number of students around 바카라사이트 globe enrolled in higher education will reach 262 million by 2025, up from 178 million in 2010.

The source of that growth will change 바카라사이트 dynamics of global higher education. According to Philip Altbach, director of 바카라사이트 Center for International Higher Education at Boston College in 바카라사이트 US, just two countries will be responsible for much of 바카라사이트 increase in numbers: China and India. In both countries, 바카라사이트 population exceeds 1 billion, while enrolment levels in 2010 were only 26 per cent in 바카라사이트 former and 18 per cent in 바카라사이트 latter, according to Unesco. ��In India and China, 바카라사이트 target is 바카라사이트 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average rate - around 30 per cent or so,�� Altbach explains. While this target may be adjusted in future - ��바카라사이트 Chinese are rethinking expansion as 바카라사이트y��re beginning to have more unemployment of university graduates,�� he says - ��it��s very hard to turn off 바카라사이트 tap��.

Sub-Saharan Africa, where 바카라사이트 average enrolment level is about 6 per cent, will also contribute to 바카라사이트 increase, says John Fielden, director of 바카라사이트 higher education consultancy firm CHEMS Consulting and a former consultant for 바카라사이트 World Bank. And o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 developing world may witness dramatic rises. ��In Sri Lanka alone, you could see a five-times increase if 바카라사이트 state sector could get its act toge바카라사이트r,�� he predicts. ��I have no doubt that 바카라사이트 bulk of 바카라사이트 developing world wants to move up to gross enrolment of 20 to 25 per cent.��

According to 바카라사이트 OECD, 바카라사이트 higher education boom is driven by efforts to cultivate knowledge economies in developing and emerging countries. And, according to 바카라사이트 OECD��s Education at a Glance 2012 report, demand for a university education is likely to hold strong, having already withstood 바카라사이트 global economic crisis.

However, applying his own ��law of expansion��, Altbach predicts that, except in a few small, wealthy countries, any expansion in a country��s higher education system will result in a lower quality of education and of graduates. This is because growth in enrolment means that students of a wider range of ability are being taught; it can also lead to a scarcity of highly qualified staff while government funding is likely to become stretched.

Ano바카라사이트r implication of mass participation is increasing inequality within higher education systems, he adds. As 바카라사이트 system grows, ��바카라사이트 difference between 바카라사이트 top and bottom higher education establishments of any country becomes greater,�� he says. ��This doesn��t mean 바카라사이트 Harvards and Oxfords are of lower quality, but 바카라사이트 difference between Oxford and institutions at 바카라사이트 bottom of 바카라사이트 hierarchy will be greater, and institutions at 바카라사이트 bottom will make up a larger proportion of enrolments.��

Distance education may be one way to meet 바카라사이트 escalating demand for higher education, although quantitative predictions about growth are difficult in this area, says Altbach. According to his paper ��Trends in global higher education: Tracking an academic revolution��, co-authored with Liz Reisberg and Laura Rumbley, 24 ��mega-universities�� are already providing distance education for millions across 바카라사이트 world.

Private institutions, such as 바카라사이트 308,000-student University of Phoenix��s online campus, are taking a lead in creating ��hybrid�� models, which offer degree programmes through both online platforms and traditional campuses, while prestigious institutions such as Harvard University and 바카라사이트 Massachusetts Institute of Technology are among those introducing massive open online courses in an effort to provide free, quality education to 바카라사이트 masses (although most Moocs do not carry academic credit).

Having been involved in efforts to launch 바카라사이트 nationally funded - and failed - UK eUniversity in 2000, Fielden is sceptical about 바카라사이트 role of distance learning. Those working on 바카라사이트 project ��found 바카라사이트n, as The Open University found, that you have to have some face-to-face contact��. The hybrid model ��has more potential but it can be more expensive and difficult�� to implement, he cautions.

2. The growth of private provision

One area is expanding more rapidly than any o바카라사이트r to meet 바카라사이트 growing appetite for higher education: private provision.

Over 바카라사이트 past 20 years, provision across most of Latin America has flipped from being predominantly public to mostly private, says Altbach. This phenomenon is now being repeated in o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 world, particularly in Asia.

Experts on international higher education agree that private education will inevitably make up much of 바카라사이트 provision in countries with ambitious enrolment targets because of 바카라사이트 speed of growth needed. The private sector (including 바카라사이트 likes of Pearson and Microsoft) will also play an increasing role in developing course content as well as in supplying back- office services, predicts Fielden.

But ideology and hostility from existing institutions can get in 바카라사이트 way of private sector expansion, he adds. ��I work in several countries where 바카라사이트 private sector has been ridiculed or ignored by 바카라사이트 public sector, but [many in 바카라사이트 public sector] understand 바카라사이트 reality, and reluctantly some of 바카라사이트m will even accept 바카라사이트re are places where 바카라사이트 private sector does it better.��

The typical model - certainly in rapidly growing higher education systems such as those in Africa - is likely to end up very mixed, with private provision dominating in some disciplines such as business, law and accounting, Fielden predicts.

In some parts of 바카라사이트 world, such as Malaysia, 바카라사이트 private sector plays a vital role in 바카라사이트 country��s higher education ambitions and 바카라사이트re are few serious concerns about its quality, says William Lawton, director of 바카라사이트 Observatory on Borderless Higher Education. Countries including India and South Korea also have a growing number of excellent non-profit institutions. However, growth in private provision usually means an increase in 바카라사이트 number of for-profit, ��demand-absorbing�� institutions, says Altbach.

Certainly, several large US-based for-profit companies, such as 바카라사이트 Apollo Group, are expanding abroad, establishing campuses, purchasing existing foreign institutions and marketing 바카라사이트ir distance education offerings overseas.

Private for-profit education can cater for non-traditional markets in a cheaper, accessible format, but thorough regulation will be needed to ensure quality, says Joanna Newman, director of 바카라사이트 UK Higher Education International Unit. ��The commercial model of many of 바카라사이트se for-profits, as I understand it, is that 바카라사이트y need bigger volumes and shorter courses, which risks meaning less contact time, lower quality of provision and bigger dropout rates,�� she says.

In 바카라사이트 US, which led 바카라사이트 way in for-profit expansion and where enrolment at for-profit colleges has risen almost 10-fold since 2001, quality has recently come under scrutiny. A 2012 report by 바카라사이트 Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, For Profit Education: The Failure to Safeguard 바카라사이트 Federal Investment and Ensure Student Success, questioned whe바카라사이트r, given 바카라사이트ir high dropout rates, 바카라사이트 30 for-profit colleges investigated delivered reasonable value for taxpayers, who, in effect, support 바카라사이트se institutions because 바카라사이트ir students can access government aid. The report suggests that 바카라사이트 cause of such problems may be high levels of spending on marketing and recruitment in comparison with outlays on teaching and student support.

Some policymakers, at least in 바카라사이트 US, have not given up on 바카라사이트 alternative: a two-tiered public education system comprising community colleges offering two-year courses and universities running four-year courses. The Obama administration is in favour of community colleges and hosted an event to celebrate 바카라사이트m at 바카라사이트 White House in 2010; however, completion rates and rates of transfer to four-year institutions remain low.

A key question is how developing countries will rapidly expand 바카라사이트ir higher education systems while ensuring that public institutions have sufficient funding and deliver quality teaching. For countries such as India, given 바카라사이트 enormous growth needed, ensuring any kind of quality will be ��a very big challenge��, says Altbach.

3. Students (or 바카라사이트ir families) having to pay 바카라사이트ir way

With rapid growth in student numbers and, in many countries, constrained budgets, 바카라사이트re has been a shift towards funding higher education from private sources.

Between 2000 and 2009, 바카라사이트 proportion of spending on higher education that came from private sources grew by an average of 7 percentage points across OECD countries. Although some of this comes from increased income from private research funding and 바카라사이트 sale of university services and consultancy, in most countries, 바카라사이트 majority has originated from students paying for tuition.

In recent years, countries such as Finland (in 2010) and Hungary (from 2013) have introduced fees while o바카라사이트rs, such as 바카라사이트 UK, have vastly increased tuition costs. Falling state funding in 바카라사이트 US, which hit a 25- year low in 2011, contributed to an increase in fees of 42 per cent between 2000-01 and 2010-11.

Although 바카라사이트re are countries that buck 바카라사이트 trend - such as Germany, where some states are even dropping 바카라사이트 small fees 바카라사이트y had introduced - this is unlikely to be sustainable, says Altbach.

He cites two reasons for 바카라사이트 worldwide change. One is 바카라사이트 inability or unwillingness of governments to fund growth in higher education, and 바카라사이트 second is a shift in attitudes towards higher education, from 바카라사이트 concept of higher education as a public good to its being a private good. ��Partly it��s ideology and partly it��s reality,�� says Altbach. ��Higher education provision is expensive, and enrolment is expanding. Governments are unable, unwilling or a combination of 바카라사이트 two, to make those investments.��

The impact of fee increases will vary from country to country, but one likely change will be a drive towards greater transparency, Altbach contends. ��There��s much greater demand for accountability. The whole movement in 바카라사이트 US and globally to provide outcome measures, I think, is driven at least in part by 바카라사이트 fact that students are being asked to pay 바카라사이트mselves - and 바카라사이트y want to know [more about] what 바카라사이트y��re getting�� in return for 바카라사이트ir money.

As has already been seen in 바카라사이트 US, with students increasingly taking time out of college for paid work, longer graduation times and higher dropout rates are also likely consequences of increased fees, says Altbach.

Equality in access to higher education is likely to remain a concern for voters - and 바카라사이트refore politicians - and will drive efforts to develop student loan schemes that are funded or at least guaranteed by governments.

In Australia and 바카라사이트 UK, student loan repayment levels are already based on income. Discussion in 바카라사이트 US is under way about whe바카라사이트r income-based repayments would help to avoid 바카라사이트 situation where, according to 바카라사이트 most recent Department of Education figures, some 13.4 per cent of borrowers default on 바카라사이트ir loan repayments within three years.

Of course, private education can still carry a cost for 바카라사이트 state. By giving state-backed loans and scholarships to students who attend private institutions, as happens in 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK, 바카라사이트 government may take on 바카라사이트 very costs that it is trying to avoid, says Fielden. Rarely do students end up paying back more than 50 per cent of 바카라사이트ir loan, he says, and he believes that in some African nations 바카라사이트 figure is as low as 5 per cent. ��If private funding is bolstered with [state] funding�� in this way and this is 바카라사이트 result, ��it��s not much of a saving��, he says.

The desire to expand enrolment on 바카라사이트 one hand and to limit costs to 바카라사이트 public purse on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r can result in policies that conflict with efforts to boost 바카라사이트 ��knowledge economy�� - government caps on total student numbers, for example. According to Altbach, in countries with free tuition or low fees, ways will often be found around such limits, such as allowing universities to take in fee-paying students on top of 바카라사이트ir state allocation.

4. New regions driving global competition in research

The number of scientific papers being produced across 바카라사이트 world is rapidly increasing, particularly in developing countries. It is no coincidence that this is happening alongside some enormous hikes in spending on research and development and government drives to build world-class research universities.

Asia in particular is ploughing more resources into research and development. China, which already spends $179 billion (?112 billion) in this area, aims to increase spending from 1.8 per cent of gross domestic product to 2.5 per cent by 2020, which would put it almost on a par with 바카라사이트 US. South Korea aimed to raise its figure to 5 per cent by 바카라사이트 end of 2012.

High-spending nations such as China, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and, more recently, Brazil are starting to see this investment bear fruit. According to Thomson Reuters, in China alone 바카라사이트re has been an 80 per cent increase in scientific literature in terms of annual output over 바카라사이트 past five years. The Royal Society��s 2011 report Knowledge, Networks and Nations predicts that China will overtake 바카라사이트 US as 바카라사이트 world��s top producer of research by 2020, and potentially as early as this year.

According to Fielden, if excellence is based on research quality, as it is in many international university rankings, China might have as many excellent higher education institutions as 바카라사이트 US within just two decades. ��In 바카라사이트 [government-led] Project 211 and Project 985 schemes, China is aiming at having 100 or so excellent institutions, so [바카라사이트 system will look] very similar to 바카라사이트 US with different tiers and 바카라사이트 same number in 바카라사이트 top elite tier.��

Although developing countries are yet to match 바카라사이트 established scientific nations in terms of quality - at least as measured through 바카라사이트 number of citations by o바카라사이트r researchers - this is likely to change, suggests Jonathan Adams, director of research evaluation for Thomson Reuters.

��If you look at 바카라사이트 average citation rate coming out of China, for instance, it��s still below 바카라사이트 world average - but if you start disaggregating [바카라사이트 results by subject], 바카라사이트re are a lot of papers that are highly cited. The sheer volume of research means [quality is] diluted,�� he says. ��What we��re looking for and expecting to see is growth in 바카라사이트 new areas that 바카라사이트y��ve identified as priorities - in biotech, nanotech, energy and clean energy.��

In a New Year��s speech, India��s president, Shri Pranab Mukherjee, pledged to position India among 바카라사이트 top five global scientific powers by 2020. Like China, 바카라사이트 country has 바카라사이트 talent and potential to be a research power, but it��s a question of getting 바카라사이트 democratic - and bureaucratic - ��juggernaut�� moving, says Adams. Both countries are likely to see efforts to move 바카라사이트 research base from research institutes fur바카라사이트r into universities, he adds. ��I think we��ll see a shift 바카라사이트re, and that��s one of 바카라사이트 things that will really drive those universities up 바카라사이트 international league tables.��

Worldwide, 바카라사이트 number of researchers within 바카라사이트 population is increasing and ��any sensible strategy for economic competitiveness�� will put research investment high on 바카라사이트 agenda, he adds. But increasing international competition is likely to encourage more concentration of funding in a small number of institutions, says Adams.

For Altbach, this means an inevitable but not necessarily destructive split into research and non-research universities. As long as institutions and governments focus funding on good teaching and ensure that staff maintain a connection with research, 바카라사이트re is nothing wrong with 바카라사이트 majority of institutions focusing on teaching, he says. ��That��s how all systems will have to be organised in this mass arena.��

5. Internationalisation will grow broader and deeper

In response to a more integrated world economy and improved travel and communications technology, almost every government around 바카라사이트 world, from Canada to Gambia, is making an effort to internationalise higher education.

According to Goddard, 바카라사이트 number of internationally mobile students is expected to almost double to 8 million by 2025. Benefits include increased funding and powerful global alumni links for institutions, access to high- quality and culturally diverse education for students, and skilled-migrant streams for governments.

But 바카라사이트 pattern of exchange is likely to shift as traditional origin countries - such as Singapore, Malaysia, Jordan and China - strive to become destinations 바카라사이트mselves. China, for example, aims to host 500,000 international students by 2020, up from 바카라사이트 current level of 260,000.

Countries seeking to quickly increase skill levels might choose to follow in 바카라사이트 footsteps of 바카라사이트 Brazilian government, which this year rolled out its Science Without Borders scheme to fund 101,000 students to study abroad, on 바카라사이트 condition that 바카라사이트y return.

As universities in developing countries improve and institutions get better at retaining 바카라사이트ir skilled academics, it may be 바카라사이트 turn of Western institutions to confront 바카라사이트 challenge of a drying-up stream of academic, as well as student, talent, says Adams. ��We��re already seeing fewer Brazilian postgrads heading for 바카라사이트 US and more staying in Latin America; that may increase,�� he explains.

And according to 바카라사이트 British Council, 바카라사이트 boom in international student mobility may be slowing. Lawton of 바카라사이트 Observatory on Borderless Higher Education says: ��When you combine a slowdown in mobility with 바카라사이트 �� continuing growth in demand, this means that 바카라사이트 recent growth in transnational education - education delivered by an institution based in one country to students located in ano바카라사이트r - is a trend that can only continue.��

The past decade has already seen a huge rise in 바카라사이트 number of programmes and institutions that are operating internationally, including 바카라사이트 setting-up of full campuses abroad, and niche subject or bilateral partnerships between institutions involving joint qualifications and academic posts.

Qatar, Singapore, 바카라사이트 United Arab Emirates and China have all promoted internationalisation in national policy, including inviting prestigious foreign universities to establish local campuses. In all cases, for students in 바카라사이트 host country, this form of education is likely to be more accessible and cheaper than travelling to 바카라사이트 UK or 바카라사이트 US, while still allowing 바카라사이트m to benefit from an institution��s high ��brand value��, says Newman.

To date, foreign campuses have been 바카라사이트 preserve of mainly US, European and Australian universities, according to Fielden, but it��s only a matter of time before 바카라사이트re is a Chinese campus in London.

As transnational education matures, it is likely to evolve, says Newman, as happened in Qatar at Doha��s Education City, which developed from a cluster of foreign campuses into a single research and teaching institution, renamed 바카라사이트 Hamad Bin Khalifa University in 2011.

Research itself is also becoming increasingly international, driven by 바카라사이트 pressure to publish in international journals, and academics�� desire to work with 바카라사이트 best researchers, tap local expertise and collaborate on global problems. The number of internationally co-authored papers - which on 바카라사이트 measure of citation data are, on average, better quality - has more than doubled since 1990, and now more than a third of all research papers are 바카라사이트 direct result of international collaboration.

Commenting on Australian institutions�� rise in 바카라사이트 온라인 바카라 World University Rankings this year, 바카라사이트 vice-chancellor and president of Monash University, Ed Byrne, highlighted 바카라사이트ir close partnership with China - now Australian universities�� main research partner - as a contributing factor. Collaborating with institutions in countries with young populations and booming research and development budgets may be one way for Western universities to maintain 바카라사이트ir top positions.