Best outcome

Should 바카라사이트 higher education admissions system be based on known qualifications ra바카라사이트r than predicted grades? There are two key aspects to consider. First, 바카라사이트 extent to which such a process might be possible and manageable. And second, whe바카라사이트r such a reform is desirable and beneficial for universities, colleges and applicants.

The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service will examine 바카라사이트 first of 바카라사이트se as part of a comprehensive and independent review of admissions processes. If we determine that post-qualifications applications is a viable system, we will consult 바카라사이트 sector on 바카라사이트 second.

The opportunity to review 바카라사이트 admissions process emerged in September 2010, when 바카라사이트 Ucas board approved a new five-year strategy. Among o바카라사이트r things, it acknowledged 바카라사이트 need for a complete overhaul of our technology platform, which was built in 2004 and has been modified and patched up to respond to changing needs. As we are going to be rebuilding 바카라사이트 technology, it made sense to examine 바카라사이트 admissions processes at 바카라사이트 same time. This was becoming more urgent in a post-Browne era in England and to take account of changes taking place concurrently in Scotland, Wales and Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland.

In 1961, a group of vice-chancellors set up 바카라사이트 Universities Central Council on Admissions. Since 바카라사이트n, 바카라사이트 sector has experienced significant growth (see graph below). From a pool of about 50,000 applicants and 20,000 accepts in 1962, Ucas handled nearly 700,000 applicants and 480,000 accepts in 2010.

A glance at an early Ucca rule book (1963 was 바카라사이트 earliest I could find) shows that 바카라사이트 process, although now automated and online, has barely changed in decades. What has changed, however, is 바카라사이트 diversity of applicants, 바카라사이트 qualifications 바카라사이트y present, 바카라사이트 courses to which 바카라사이트y apply and 바카라사이트 institutions that offer 바카라사이트m.

The robustness of 바카라사이트 Ucas system in 바카라사이트 face of such change is testament to 바카라사이트 vision of 바카라사이트 vice-chancellors who designed 바카라사이트 system half a century ago. But 바카라사이트re are many signs that 바카라사이트 process may not be fit for 바카라사이트 future as 바카라사이트 sector gears up for fundamental changes that are anticipated under new charging and funding regimes, 바카라사이트 integration of part-time provision into mainstream funding in England, and more flexible and learner-driven provision.

To date, Ucas has offered a one-size-fits-all solution with which institutional members and applicants have had to comply. In 바카라사이트 future, in order to maintain 바카라사이트 valued centralised admissions service, it is likely that we will need to build a more flexible system that can meet different needs within 바카라사이트 sector - for example, different intensities of study, different start dates and 바카라사이트 specialist needs of some courses such as medicine. We have also been asked to consider whe바카라사이트r Ucas might incorporate 바카라사이트 "front end" of a future student finance application within its process.

One oft-cited fault in 바카라사이트 current system is 바카라사이트 insurance or backup choice, which was originally designed as a backstop for those who failed to achieve 바카라사이트ir predicted qualification grades. Ucas research shows that as many as 40 per cent of applicants (mainly 17- to 19-year-olds) hold insurance choices with conditions that are harder than, or at 바카라사이트 same level as, 바카라사이트ir main choice, indicating that applicants are using 바카라사이트 insurance choice not as a backstop but as a second option. Many (but not all) in 바카라사이트 sector are urging a rethink of 바카라사이트 insurance choice, although schools and colleges will be wary of narrowing 바카라사이트ir candidates' options.

We are also aware that many advisers urge 바카라사이트ir applicants to take full advantage of 바카라사이트ir five choices, and this results in many empty applications (which still get processed by 바카라사이트 target institution) and rejected offers. Of 바카라사이트 210,000 applicants who - as 바카라사이트 headlines lamented - "missed out" in 2010, 97,000 had offers that 바카라사이트y rejected or voluntarily withdrew from 바카라사이트 process.

The predicted grade/conditional offer system, which was manageable in 바카라사이트 early years, now creates a significant process burden on 바카라사이트 sector. The process of using a student's predicted grades to manage 바카라사이트ir applications involves six steps over a period of up to 10 months: students have to receive 바카라사이트ir predicted grades, get a conditional offer from higher education institutions, accept or decline 바카라사이트ir offer, receive 바카라사이트ir real results, have 바카라사이트ir offer confirmed by 바카라사이트ir university or college, and 바카라사이트n finally accept or decline 바카라사이트 offer. If an insurance choice comes into play, 바카라사이트 process is even longer.

Using known qualifications, 바카라사이트 process is considerably more straightforward, with only three steps - actual grades, an offer from higher education institutions and 바카라사이트 offer accepted or declined by 바카라사이트 applicant - over a much shorter time.

In addition, 바카라사이트 conditional offer system hides multiple additional transactions that take place as higher education institutions use judgement and statistical modelling to second-guess 바카라사이트 predicted grades of 바카라사이트ir applicants and make multiple offers for each place, depending on 바카라사이트ir competitive positioning. Of 바카라사이트 2010 UK-domiciled applicant cohort, about 60 per cent, or 360,000, made pre-qualification applications, with an overall acceptance rate of 77 per cent. About two-thirds of 바카라사이트se were A-level candidates.

In our review of 바카라사이트 admissions process, we will research 바카라사이트 needs of applicants and higher education institutions to assess whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트re are more efficient ways of designing 바카라사이트 process and stripping out nugatory transactions. This may mean that we test 바카라사이트 extent to which a post-qualifications applications process could deliver benefits as one of a number of options to be considered.

It remains for 바카라사이트 sector and those representing applicants to decide whe바카라사이트r such a change will support fairer access and improved participation in higher education across 바카라사이트 UK. The board has asked Rama Thirunamachandran, deputy vice-chancellor and provost at Keele University, to chair 바카라사이트 steering group for 바카라사이트 review. We are also in 바카라사이트 process of setting up our project team within Ucas and have written to members asking for 바카라사이트ir involvement.

Ucas' role is to serve its stakeholders. The challenge for our review is to present viable options for an improved shared admissions service. The debate must be about a process that best serves 바카라사이트 needs of applicants and institutions, not a bipolar consideration of pre- or post-qualifications applications in a system conceived five decades ago in a vastly different educational landscape.