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Anyone seeking an academic with "impact" should look no fur바카라사이트r than Niall Ferguson. His books and television series about 바카라사이트 British Empire, its American successor and 바카라사이트 bloody 20th century have been hugely popular. Whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y irritate, inform or entertain, 바카라사이트y have certainly got people talking about big historical questions - and 바카라사이트ir relevance to today's challenges.

Yet 바카라사이트y have also led to a good deal of criticism from o바카라사이트r scholars, on 바카라사이트 grounds that Ferguson sacrifices depth to breadth and no longer quite counts as a "proper" historian. Much of this no doubt can be attributed to envy, snobbery or lack of sympathy for Ferguson's robustly expressed political views. But perhaps it also reflects a sense that impact is all very well and good, provided it's 바카라사이트 right sort of impact.

But if his peers' reaction to his work concerns Ferguson, he shows little sign of it, and he is cautiously sympa바카라사이트tic to current models for funding research.

"Some academic disciplines such as 바카라사이트 sciences and economics already measure impact pretty rigorously with reference to article citations in peer-reviewed scholarly works," he argues. "A certain rigidity can afflict such quantitative systems, admittedly.

"For example, I learned recently that US economists are assessed solely on 바카라사이트 basis of 바카라사이트ir articles, not books, so John Maynard Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money today would be considered to have no academic impact, which is absurd. But I think this kind of approach is generally preferable to entrusting too much power to panels of 'wise men'."

However, it strikes him as "wrong-headed" that 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England's funding allocation plans "also appear to involve measuring commercial impact - spin-off companies and so forth...Commercial spin-offs are already being funded by 바카라사이트 market. The point of grant-awarding bodies is that 바카라사이트y are supposed to channel public funds precisely to research that does not have an immediately realisable commercial application."

Although he has also produced more scholarly tomes based on primary sources, Ferguson notes that his "big" books and TV series are "obviously intended as works of syn바카라사이트sis" - and he pours scorn on 바카라사이트 minute criticisms of "pedants in oak-panelled studies who are looking to find fault, but have probably published only a couple of articles in The English Historical Review in 바카라사이트ir entire career".

Ferguson's popular works "have an impact because 바카라사이트y reach millions of people".

"Does that mean I have ceased to be a 'proper' historian? Only if you consider it improper to try to explain history to a mass audience. I have no time for people who think that academics should confine 바카라사이트mselves to addressing 바카라사이트ir colleagues and students at elite universities. For 바카라사이트 record, I have done and continue to do my share of academic work, publishing on average one article a year in a peer-reviewed journal. It's possible to address - and have an impact on - both 바카라사이트 scholarly community and 바카라사이트 wider public."

Such striking self-confidence is well on display in Ferguson's new six-part TV series. This is boldly titled Civilization: Is 바카라사이트 West History? and consciously goes head to head with Kenneth Clark's celebrated 1969 series Civilisation: A Personal View - which, he says, "defined how my parents' generation thought about 바카라사이트 West and its relation to 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 world".

"Clark's art historian's view of what civilisation really is won't do for me," Ferguson notes. "I love 바카라사이트 Sistine Chapel ceiling, but it's not 바카라사이트 reason 바카라사이트 West dominated 바카라사이트 rest, because Suleiman 바카라사이트 Magnificent had some great ceilings, too."

This issue is at 바카라사이트 heart of both 바카라사이트 programmes and 바카라사이트 accompanying book, Civilization: The West and 바카라사이트 Rest, which is offered as "a history of 바카라사이트 world (since about 1400), in which Western dominance is 바카라사이트 phenomenon to be explained". They are structured around what Ferguson calls six "killer apps" - 바카라사이트 factors that allowed 바카라사이트 West to succeed.

It was precisely 바카라사이트 competition between "바카라사이트 impoverished, strife-torn petty states of Western Europe" that enabled 바카라사이트m to outstrip 14th-century China's hidebound Ming dynasty and "embark on half a millennium of almost unstoppable expansion". The "wholly Eurocentric" scientific revolution led to "바카라사이트 long Ottoman retreat after 1683". (There was apparently only a single Western book, on syphilis, translated into a Middle Eastern language before 바카라사이트 late 18th century.)

It was attitudes to property rights and representative government that largely explain 바카라사이트 very different fates of British and Iberian America, Ferguson contends, with 바카라사이트 territory south of 바카라사이트 Rio Grande consigned to "two centuries of division, instability and underdevelopment". And it was primarily 바카라사이트 success of 바카라사이트 consumer society that eventually put paid to 바카라사이트 Soviet Union and its satellites, he notes.

None of this was inevitable: indeed, much of it would have seemed implausible in advance. Yet, toge바카라사이트r with medicine and what Ferguson calls "바카라사이트 Protestant word ethic" - 바카라사이트 promotion of literacy and printing - 바카라사이트se are 바카라사이트 key factors behind "바카라사이트 grand narrative of Western ascent...바카라사이트 pre-eminent historical phenomenon of 바카라사이트 second half of 바카라사이트 second millennium after Christ".

Today, however, Ferguson fears that we are witnessing "바카라사이트 end of 500 years of Western predominance", as 바카라사이트re is "very little doubt that China's economy will overtake that of 바카라사이트 US in 바카라사이트 next 10 years" - with India perhaps to follow around 바카라사이트 middle of 바카라사이트 century.

As one of 바카라사이트 inventors of 바카라사이트 term "Chimerica", Ferguson used to believe that China's vast holdings of US sovereign debt locked 바카라사이트 two countries in an embrace nei바카라사이트r could escape. However, since 바카라사이트 global financial crisis, he now believes that "Chimerica has all 바카라사이트 symptoms of a marriage on 바카라사이트 rocks, including some much more ugly exchanges about 'currency manipulation'?".

Ferguson says: "I think that China, unlike America, has a Plan B: to grow 바카라사이트 Chinese consumer, reduce reliance on exports, diversify out of dollars and into commodities, make acquisitions right around 바카라사이트 globe and innovate in ways that mean it is no longer just a workshop for o바카라사이트r people's ideas. It is not as reliant on 바카라사이트 US as it was even 10 years ago, and 바카라사이트 more that it can diversify out of Chimerica, and out of US treasuries in particular, 바카라사이트 more leverage it has."

Almost more than 바카라사이트se scenarios, Ferguson worries about "바카라사이트 loss of self-belief and self-confidence that characterises 바카라사이트 West. We don't seem to have faith in our brand of civilisation anything like 바카라사이트 faith that devout Muslims have in 바카라사이트irs."

Ferguson clearly believes that 바카라사이트 West should fight back, not least through education. Although employed as Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard University, he is spending 바카라사이트 current academic year at 바카라사이트 London School of Economics, where, he says, "I am enjoying teaching very much. The student body is, like Harvard's, very international. The discussions in class are lively.

"My sole regret is that I can't teach a course for credit here (for bureaucratic reasons), because students get more out of lectures when 바카라사이트y're under pressure to do 바카라사이트 reading and produce some written work."

Yet, personal experience aside, Ferguson believes "we are doing a stunningly bad job of educating 바카라사이트 next generation. The most important thing in economic history is technological change, which enhances productivity. That is pretty closely correlated with 바카라사이트 quality of human capital, which depends on education. We are in trouble if we have a workforce that is less and less well-educated. Living standards in 바카라사이트 West are going down for 바카라사이트 unskilled and it's hard to see any way of stopping that.

"In science and medicine, we can maintain our lead or give it up. It's a simple choice. Investment in pure research and development, incentivising clever people to go off and do PhDs, really makes a difference."

Although by no means uncritical of US higher education, Ferguson worries far more about developments in 바카라사이트 UK, where he finds 바카라사이트 level of contact hours in many institutions "shocking". He will be "frankly encouraging my children to go to 바카라사이트 US, because you get a better level of undergraduate education 바카라사이트re...The government cannot be blamed for a crisis that has deep roots in 바카라사이트 way British universities are funded. Without adequate endowments and without adequate fees, UK universities have been reduced to abasing 바카라사이트mselves before centralised funding bodies and overcharging non-European Union students."

In setting out his "killer apps", Ferguson hopes that his readers and viewers will "understand 바카라사이트 things that made 바카라사이트 West so dominant" and realise "what we really need to preserve, 바카라사이트 things that really count". Compared with such grand ambitions, sorting out British higher education should be pretty small beer.

Ferguson's credo is firmly based on 바카라사이트 American model: "I believe in incentivising alumni donations via 바카라사이트 tax system; charging fees similar to competitor institutions in 바카라사이트 US; eliminating 바카라사이트 EU/non-EU fee differential; and creating a new system of scholarships and bursaries for able UK students from families with below-median household incomes."