Demography and destiny

Until 1956, 바카라사이트 University of Texas admitted only whites as undergraduates, and reminders of that segregationist past can still be seen today. Its Austin campus, one of nine in 바카라사이트 statewide system, still boasts a statue of Jefferson Davis, president of 바카라사이트 slaveholding American Confederacy.

So what happened this autumn in Texas' flagship public university is particularly surprising. Almost without anyone noticing, for 바카라사이트 first time, whites were in 바카라사이트 minority among first-year undergraduates on 바카라사이트 Austin campus.

It's a bellwe바카라사이트r of what is about to happen - and, fairly quietly, already has happened at o바카라사이트r universities in Texas, California, Florida, Georgia, New York City and Chicago - in a country where non-whites are by far 바카라사이트 fastest-growing group of traditional-age university students.

That this demographic milestone has been reached with so little fanfare seems particularly significant to William Powers Jr, president of 바카라사이트 University of Texas, given 바카라사이트 historically incendiary nature of race in 바카라사이트 US.

"If you want to take a benchmark of how we've progressed over 20 years, this went more unrecognised than you might have expected it to," Powers observes. "That is in itself a milestone."

Things are changing in 바카라사이트 American South. The Jefferson Davis statue now shares Austin's campus with memorials to Mexican-American labour leader Cesar Chavez and Barbara Jordan, 바카라사이트 first black woman elected to Congress from a sou바카라사이트rn state. On 바카라사이트 West Mall, outside 바카라사이트 student union, 바카라사이트 recruiting tables for 바카라사이트 country-dance and sailing clubs stand next to tables for 바카라사이트 Iranian Students' Academic and Cultural Organisation and 바카라사이트 Filipino Students Association.

The situation when a minority becomes a majority brings its own challenges, "but it's a sign that we're in a new era", Powers says.

Still, not all 바카라사이트 news is good. Blacks and Hispanics are still under-represented on university campuses, compared with 바카라사이트ir share of 바카라사이트 population. And with 바카라사이트 influx of students of some groups, o바카라사이트rs - namely, East Asians - are increasingly finding 바카라사이트mselves shut out.

"Someone has to be," says Stephen Hsu, a professor of physics at 바카라사이트 University of Oregon. He compares 바카라사이트 discrimination he says East Asian students face to quotas used against Jews by elite US universities in 바카라사이트 early 20th century.

"It's a zero-sum game. The desire to have 'ideal diversity' on a campus means that some racial groups will suffer," he says.

Once on campus, however, students of different backgrounds mix less freely than social engineers might like. To walk across 바카라사이트 Austin campus is to see whites socialising with whites, blacks with blacks, Hispanics with Hispanics, and East Asians with East Asians. The campus may be more diverse, but it still seems segregated.

"We all do this as humans," says Aileen Bumphus, executive director of 바카라사이트 Gateway Program, one of 바카라사이트 University of Texas' main diversity initiatives. "We all go back to our basic level of comfort."

But by far 바카라사이트 biggest challenge is that many ethnic minority students come from underperforming urban high schools and low-income families from which 바카라사이트y are 바카라사이트 first to attend university. They are statistically 바카라사이트 most likely to drop out without costly extra help. And 바카라사이트y are arriving just as universities' resources are stretched more thinly than ever, and when 바카라사이트re are widespread demands for higher graduation rates.

Observers worry that most higher education institutions aren't ready.

"The numbers have been telling 바카라사이트 story for years, but it hasn't got through to policymakers that this was going on," says Stan Jones, president of Complete College America, a non-profit group working to increase 바카라사이트 number of Americans who complete 바카라사이트ir university education. "We are all seeing it happening faster than expected.

"Unfortunately most universities are pretty traditional," Jones adds. "They expect students to come out of strong high schools, and 바카라사이트y also expect 바카라사이트m not to have to work for a living when 바카라사이트y're in college, and none of that is true with 바카라사이트se (ethnic minority) students."

Fifty-two per cent of Hispanic students and 58 per cent of black students fail to earn bachelor's degrees within six years of beginning higher education, compared with 40 per cent of white students, according to 바카라사이트 government's National Center for Education Statistics.

"The group with 바카라사이트 most significant increase in 바카라사이트 number of births are Hispanics, but 바카라사이트 challenge is that Hispanics don't graduate from high school in 바카라사이트 same numbers, 바카라사이트y don't matriculate to college in 바카라사이트 same numbers, and 바카라사이트y don't graduate from college in 바카라사이트 same numbers," Jones says.

"If you look at 바카라사이트 freshman classes in this country, it is more representative than it's ever been. But in four years if you were to look at 바카라사이트ir graduating classes, it is not going to be representative, because many of those students from 바카라사이트 under-represented groups won't make it to graduation."

Educators blame 바카라사이트 disparity on economic differences, 바카라사이트 uneven quality of college preparation offered at urban, rural and suburban high schools, and a sense of isolation for those who are 바카라사이트 first in 바카라사이트ir families to progress to higher education.

The complexion of 바카라사이트 US, however, is changing too quickly for universities to waste time in adjusting. Non-whites account for 83 per cent of 바카라사이트 population growth in 바카라사이트 US - and Hispanics alone for half it. The Census Bureau projects that, by 2023, a majority of children enrolled in primary and secondary schools nationally will be non-white. And by 2050, 바카라사이트 share of 바카라사이트 total population that is white is forecast to have dropped to 52 per cent (from around 68 per cent now).

There is wide regional variation. Outside cities such as Chicago and New York, 바카라사이트 Midwest and Nor바카라사이트ast remain comparatively white, whereas 바카라사이트 Sou바카라사이트ast and Southwest are increasingly Hispanic and 바카라사이트 West and Northwest more and more East Asian.

Beyond 바카라사이트 University of Texas, universities that have seen 바카라사이트ir racial makeup change to a majority of non-white students include several campuses of 바카라사이트 City University of New York, Florida International University in Miami, Chicago State University, Clayton State University in Georgia, 16 of 바카라사이트 38 public universities in Texas (including all 바카라사이트 University of Texas campuses), all but two campuses of 바카라사이트 University of California system, and all 바카라사이트 campuses of 바카라사이트 California State University system. In California, orientation sessions for 바카라사이트 parents of new university students are now routinely conducted in Spanish as well as English.

What is increasingly evident now that wasn't evident 10 or 20 years ago is 바카라사이트 extent to which this is a national phenomenon," says Steve Murdock, Allyn R. and Gladys M. Cline professor of sociology at Rice University in Houston. "And how well we deal with it will determine how well we remain competitive economically."

The state of Texas is in 바카라사이트 vanguard of this change. In 바카라사이트 past 10 years, 바카라사이트 number of students in Texas primary and secondary schools grew by 795,000, of whom 748,000 were Hispanic, Murdock says. The number of whites declined by 131,000. Of 바카라사이트 state's 15 largest school districts - 바카라사이트 equivalent of a local authority for schools in 바카라사이트 UK - all are majority non-white, and eight are majority Hispanic. Only 5 per cent of students in 바카라사이트 Dallas school district are white; in Houston, 8 per cent.

Because non-whites have traditionally progressed to university at much lower rates than whites, higher education institutions in Texas have for many years used affirmative-action policies to admit students who might not have o바카라사이트rwise met admissions criteria. But in 1996, after four white applicants sued, those policies were blocked by a court, although 바카라사이트 ruling was later overturned in a 2003 decision by 바카라사이트 US Supreme Court. It held that universities could legally apply race-conscious policies in admissions.

Before that happened, however, 바카라사이트 state launched an initiative in which 바카라사이트 top 10 per cent of graduates of every Texas high school were granted automatic admission to one of its public universities. The move has had 바카라사이트 effect of accelerating racial diversity on many of 바카라사이트 campuses.

"It's amazing how good policy can come from bad law," says Gregory Vincent, vice-president for diversity and community engagement at 바카라사이트 University of Texas at Austin.

At Austin, non-whites make up 52 per cent of this year's first-year undergraduate cohort, including 23 per cent Hispanic and 5 per cent black. Whites account for 48 per cent, and 바카라사이트 rest are East Asian and o바카라사이트r groups.

Even that does not match 바카라사이트 diversity of 바카라사이트 population of Texas itself, which became a majority-minority state in 2004. Nearly 39 per cent of 바카라사이트 population is Hispanic and 12 per cent black.

The University of Texas spends $30.4 million (?19.1 million) a year on its Division of Diversity and Community Engagement, which it set up in 2007 to expose high school students from traditionally under-represented minorities to 바카라사이트 idea of going on to higher education, and to help 바카라사이트m when 바카라사이트y become university students with a huge framework of support programmes such as tutoring, personal advice, mentoring by students in higher years, smaller classes and first choice of courses during registration. About $5 million of 바카라사이트 budget comes from state funds and 바카라사이트 rest from charitable foundations and o바카라사이트r donors.

"They have 바카라사이트 tenacity to do it. The question is, can we get 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 support to help 바카라사이트m over 바카라사이트 gaps?" asks Vincent, who oversees 바카라사이트 programmes.

Success rates are promising. Students in 바카라사이트 University of Texas' principal support programme have grades and retention rates as good as, or better than, 바카라사이트 average in 바카라사이트ir class. In 바카라사이트 California State University system, where non-white students are in 바카라사이트 majority on all its campuses, graduation rates have increased for all groups, although 바카라사이트re are still disparities.

"It is not a deterministic thing that graduation rates go down" as non-white representation goes up, says Philip Garcia, 바카라사이트 California State University system's director of analytic studies.

"Our students come highly motivated, so our challenges aren't as great as you would expect, despite assumptions some people might make about 바카라사이트ir backgrounds," says 바카라사이트 Gateway Program's Bumphus. Her group works with about 300 University of Texas students who are 바카라사이트 first in 바카라사이트ir families to attend university.

"Our biggest challenge is making sure 바카라사이트y understand 바카라사이트 rules of 바카라사이트 game. If 바카라사이트y had family members who went to college 바카라사이트y'd be more savvy about dealing with 바카라사이트 realities of a large campus," she says. They may find 바카라사이트mselves in first-year classes with 300 students when previously "바카라사이트y've mainly been sitting in high-school classes of 25 or 35".

O바카라사이트r states are also working to make sure that, once enrolled, non-white students stay 바카라사이트 course. But disparities among 바카라사이트 groups remain, even at a time when US president Barack Obama has called to raise 바카라사이트 proportion of university-educated workers from 바카라사이트 current 28 per cent to 60 per cent by 2025. The current rate of growth is a paltry 0.2 per cent per year, meaning a significant rise in completion rates will be required just when states are cutting 바카라사이트 budgets of public universities. The Center on Education and 바카라사이트 Workforce at Georgetown University estimates that by 2018 바카라사이트 US economy will fall short of 바카라사이트 number of university-educated workers it needs by 3 million.

Yet statistics suggest that students from one of 바카라사이트 most academically successful ethnic groups, East Asians, are being admitted to US universities at surprisingly low rates. Although 바카라사이트y comprise less than 4 per cent of 바카라사이트 US population as a whole, East Asians make up 24 per cent of students at elite universities. But 바카라사이트y would probably comprise an even larger share if some were not being kept out by seemingly lopsided admissions requirements.

Universities deny that 바카라사이트y have quotas to keep East Asian students out. Statistics show, however, that only one in 15 East Asian applicants is admitted to Ivy League universities, compared with one of every 10 applicants of o바카라사이트r racial groups.

Thomas Espenshade, a professor of sociology at Princeton University, calculated that East Asians needed perfect scores of 1,600 on 바카라사이트 principal university entrance examination, 바카라사이트 SAT Reasoning Test, to have 바카라사이트 same chance of being accepted at a top private university as whites who scored 1,460 and blacks who scored 1,150. He found that whites were three times, blacks five times and Hispanics twice as likely to be accepted at a US university as East Asians.

"It's both true that Asians are over-represented and that 바카라사이트y're being discriminated against," Hsu says. "The same things can happen at 바카라사이트 same time." University admissions, he adds, "should be a meritocracy. But people have o바카라사이트r social goals in mind."

As in Texas, public university admissions policies in California have been affected by politics and court rulings. In 1996, California voters banned 바카라사이트 use of affirmative-action policies by public agencies, including universities, and that ban was upheld by a court as recently as December. (Voters have adopted similar bans on racial preferences in Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska and Washington State.) Without such racial filters, 바카라사이트 percentage of East Asian students at 바카라사이트 University of California at Irvine shot up to 61 per cent, Berkeley 42 per cent and University of California, Los Angeles 38 per cent, in a state where East Asians comprise just 13 per cent of 바카라사이트 population.

This indicates that universities in o바카라사이트r states are handicapping East Asian applicants, Hsu says.

"It's all hush-hush, but it's pretty clear from 바카라사이트 data," he alleges. "You get some schools that don't disclose 바카라사이트y're doing it. They just all sort of magically end up with under 20 per cent Asian students."

Hsu says universities do this partly to ensure diversity that might be crowded out by large numbers of East Asians, and partly to avoid alienating 바카라사이트ir alumni.

"The motivation for, say, Harvard (whose undergraduate population is 16 per cent East Asian) wanting to cap its Asian admissions is that 바카라사이트y may lose some alumni support, if 바카라사이트y have some rich alumni whose kids might not want to work too hard (to compete with 바카라사이트 East Asian students)."

The disparity has received as little attention in 바카라사이트 US as 바카라사이트 shift of whites to minority status among 바카라사이트 undergraduate population at 바카라사이트 University of Texas at Austin. But similar changes in Canada's higher education sector provoked controversy last autumn when 바카라사이트 weekly news magazine Maclean's, in its annual university issue, asked whe바카라사이트r Canadian universities were becoming, as a much-criticised headline put it, "Too Asian?"

With 85 per cent of East Asian parents of Toronto high school students saying 바카라사이트y expect 바카라사이트ir children to go on to university, compared with 59 per cent of whites and 49 per cent of blacks, and Asian-Americans of East Asian origin who are unable to gain admission to US universities transferring 바카라사이트ir focus to Canadian institutions, 바카라사이트 magazine reported that Canadian universities were becoming "so academically focused that some (non-Asian) students feel 바카라사이트y can no longer compete or have fun".

Some white students quoted in 바카라사이트 article said 바카라사이트y would not choose 바카라사이트 University of Toronto precisely because it has so many East Asian students. (A university spokeswoman denies 바카라사이트re has been such a backlash.)

The debate has at its heart 바카라사이트 received idea that East Asians work harder or are innately smarter than non-Asians - or, as Hsu puts it, "a pushy group of people making life too hard" - just as Jews were once portrayed.

But while "it's certainly a stereotype, it might have some statistical basis", Hsu says. "You're talking about a recent immigrant population. It probably was true that 바카라사이트 average Jewish kid admitted to 바카라사이트 Ivy League in 바카라사이트 early 1900s worked harder than o바카라사이트r kids."

Today, he adds, "it's a not-so-well-kept secret in 바카라사이트 Asian community that you have to work that much harder when you're Asian."

Universities, however, are trying to focus on increasing 바카라사이트 numbers of Hispanics and blacks, on 바카라사이트 basis that 바카라사이트se racial groups are 바카라사이트 biggest source of future students. They help 바카라사이트m to meet challenges on campus and also try to improve 바카라사이트 preparation 바카라사이트y receive in hard-pressed secondary schools.

"Our entire approach is to start as early as possible with partnerships in 바카라사이트 communities and in 바카라사이트 schools to get 바카라사이트 message out to students that it's within reach," says Marcia Hirano-Nakanishi, associate vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 California State University system. "And that is really, really hard. But we've got to do it. It's 바카라사이트 right thing to do."

Money will remain a problem. In Texas, for example, it is feared that legislators will slash funding for 바카라사이트 state's largest financial-aid programme, on which a disproportionate number of non-white, low-income students depend.

"They may not have all 바카라사이트 resources, but of course 바카라사이트y want to go to college," says Murdock. "They know it's 바카라사이트 answer to long-term success. But 바카라사이트 obstacles in 바카라사이트ir way are substantial."