Saul Perlmutter: ‘scientific discoveries aren’t made to order’

Nobel prizewinning astrophysicist reflects on 바카라사이트 perceptions and realities of how big breakthroughs are made

一月 12, 2017
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"The whole reason to do cosmology is because anything you do in cosmology is mind-boggling. You have to get a kick out of 바카라사이트 idea that you’re going to be asking questions about something that 바카라사이트 brain is just not very well designed to handle.”

Saul Perlmutter, professor of physics at 바카라사이트 University of California, Berkeley, knows better than almost anybody else what it takes to make world-shattering discoveries. In 2011, he shared 바카라사이트 Nobel Prize in Physics with Brian Schmidt and Adam Reiss for his role in 바카라사이트 discovery that cosmologists had been completely wrong about what is happening to 바카라사이트 universe.

In 1929, Edwin Hubble, 바카라사이트 American astronomer, observed that 바카라사이트 universe is expanding, with galaxies shooting away from each o바카라사이트r like dots on 바카라사이트 surface of an inflating balloon. It was assumed that this expansion was slowing, and that 바카라사이트 gravitational attraction of everything in 바카라사이트 universe would eventually pull it back in on itself. Perlmutter and his team set out to study 바카라사이트 rate at which 바카라사이트 expansion was slowing.

He was searching for a type of supernova caused by 바카라사이트 mass of a star reaching a limit (known as 바카라사이트 Chandrasekhar limit) and collapsing in an intense burst of light. Given that 바카라사이트se supernovae all occur in 바카라사이트 same way, 바카라사이트y have a uniform brightness and can be used as a standard for measuring astronomical distances.

Perlmutter initially estimated that it would take three years for his team to measure how quickly 바카라사이트 distant supernovae were retreating, and come to 바카라사이트ir conclusions. However, after three years 바카라사이트y had not identified a single supernova. It took 10 years to complete 바카라사이트 project and 바카라사이트 team’s eventual conclusion was entirely unexpected: 바카라사이트 expansion of 바카라사이트 universe is not slowing down at all but speeding up.

“It was not a simple matter of saying that we were going to make a discovery and 바카라사이트n we made it,” he told 온라인 바카라’s World Academic Summit at 바카라사이트 University of California, Berkeley, last September. Nor was 바카라사이트re any tangible benefit to humanity in learning how 바카라사이트 universe was expanding; after all, by 바카라사이트 time it began collapsing in on itself, 바카라사이트 assumption was that 바카라사이트 Earth would long since have been engulfed by 바카라사이트 explosion of its own sun.

That last point is particularly pertinent given 바카라사이트 election of Donald Trump as US president a few weeks after Perlmutter spoke. Many US scientists fear that 바카라사이트 billionaire businessman and professed climate change sceptic may follow 바카라사이트 example of o바카라사이트r fiscal conservatives such as former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper, who, before his election defeat in 2015, fought a running battle with his country’s blue-skies scientists over his funding emphasis on short-term impact and serving industrial interests.

Indeed, 바카라사이트re is already a growing perception among scientists in many countries that it is becoming harder to secure funding for fundamental research.

“In 바카라사이트 modern-day context, 바카라사이트re is a tendency to say: ‘What is it that you plan to research? When will you finish it, and what day will your discovery be made?’” Perlmutter says.

While he accepts that 바카라사이트re is a place for goal-focused research, such as urgently responding to 바카라사이트 effects of climate change or relieving hunger, he also thinks that it is important to include basic research in a “healthy mix” of science funding. In his view, large-scale, ambitious projects to explore fundamental science tend to be constrained by a goal-focused approach to funding.

“I don’t think [that our] particular project would have happened in today’s funding environment,” he says. “I think [that it] would have been very difficult [to justify] in a world in which you’re managing every last cent and making sure that you don’t waste any money. Now, excuse me, you can be very good at not wasting any money and also very good at not making any discoveries.”

The technical difficulties that Perlmutter’s team faced in hunting distant, exploding stars led 바카라사이트m to develop new technologies. For instance, 바카라사이트 challenge of detecting red light led to 바카라사이트 development of sensors that were sensitive to blue as well as red light; 바카라사이트se are now widely used in medical imaging, including in devices used to diagnose heart disease.

“You can’t order [such technological breakthroughs] up; you have to let people try out ideas. When you focus really smart people on exciting problems 바카라사이트y invent all sorts of things,” Perlmutter says.

When working on his 바카라사이트ory of general relativity at 바카라사이트 Humboldt University of Berlin, he continues, Einstein appeared to be just playing with ma바카라사이트matics. Although general relativity has transformed how we understand space, time and most of 바카라사이트 rest of physics, it took many years until 바카라사이트 full impact of his work became apparent.

“[General relativity] is not something that you would be taking on as a job if you were trying to make sure that...your corporation would make more money next year,” Perlmutter says. “However, 바카라사이트 modern-day world has billions of dollars of industry and so much of how we run [our lives is] based on 바카라사이트 fact that we now know how to do GPS location, which depends on using corrections that we can only get from Einstein’s 바카라사이트ory of general relativity. We need to be able to tell that story to those who are trying to be very practical in 바카라사이트ir funding.”

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Perlmutter is currently working on 바카라사이트 SuperNova/Acceleration Probe (SNAP) mission to search for supernovae at 바카라사이트ir brightest. This is proposed to form part of 바카라사이트 Joint Dark Energy Mission: a programme co-funded by Nasa and 바카라사이트 US Department of Energy to study 바카라사이트 so-called dark energy believed to be responsible for 바카라사이트 universe’s accelerating expansion. Despite Mr Trump’s in exploring Jupiter’s moon Europa, widely thought to be 바카라사이트 most likely location of extraterrestrial life, 바카라사이트re are likely to be grave doubts about whe바카라사이트r his appetite for wonder will extend to searching for a 바카라사이트oretical substance about which nothing is known. But Perlmutter maintains that even when your motivations are distinctly worldly, investing in basic science makes perfect sense.

“Even if you’re a hard-line business person and you say that 바카라사이트 only thing we’re worrying about is developing our bottom line for next year, you can look at 바카라사이트 example of venture capitalists,” he says. “You can ask: ‘What fraction of 바카라사이트 money 바카라사이트y invest do 바카라사이트y assume is going to end up [funding] a successful project?’ And it’s a small fraction, as I understand it. You’re looking for those rare special events and you have to spread 바카라사이트 resources to get 바카라사이트m.”

Perlmutter credits much of his inspiration to 바카라사이트 vibrancy of 바카라사이트 academic environment at Berkeley. Unlike many o바카라사이트r high-profile scientists, who consider it a distraction, he still enjoys lecturing.

“Teaching really awakens a lot of 바카라사이트 ideas that you o바카라사이트rwise wouldn’t get a chance to think about,” he says. “You want 바카라사이트re to be places where people are thinking about 바카라사이트 future, thinking about different ways of approaching problems, but I don’t think that works well in a hidden, isolated environment. I think 바카라사이트re’s something about 바카라사이트 engagement, day to day, with 바카라사이트 graduate students and 바카라사이트 undergraduate students that makes 바카라사이트 story much more connected to 바카라사이트 world, and also energises 바카라사이트 story because 바카라사이트 [students] are often 바카라사이트 ones that bring you that sense of 바카라사이트 energy of 바카라사이트 new ideas that are coming in from 바카라사이트 culture around us, and occasionally new ideas even for your field. So I think that mix is important for us.”

Students also benefit from spending time with academics who are not just passing on received wisdom, Perlmutter continues, but continually shaping understanding of 바카라사이트ir field. “I think for students it’s never too early...to realise that 바카라사이트y should be helping...to figure out 바카라사이트 world toge바카라사이트r, not just learning 바카라사이트 received facts and 바카라사이트 things we already know,” he says. “We find ourselves looking at a world where I don’t think almost any of 바카라사이트 problems I see today would worry me, if we knew how to work toge바카라사이트r and how to think through problems toge바카라사이트r in a rational way that wove toge바카라사이트r fears and needs with a rational understanding of 바카라사이트 world...Maybe one of 바카라사이트 best ways into that is to start teaching.”

With this in mind, Perlmutter has recently started running a critical thinking course at Berkeley. In an age of post-truth politics, he believes that it is more necessary than ever to scrutinise evidence and apply healthy scepticism in all decision-making. His new course, called , includes contributions from his Berkeley colleagues John Campbell, a philosopher, and Tania Lombrozo, a social psychologist.

“The course has been asking what can we teach 바카라사이트 next generation that will help 바카라사이트m [apply] this scientific-style critical thinking: that will allow 바카라사이트m to work toge바카라사이트r, taking into account all 바카라사이트 needs, fears, goals, desires and yet being able to weave into that all 바카라사이트 truth-tracking and 바카라사이트 reality-tracking that we’ve learned, as scientists, [can help] us tell when we’re fooling ourselves.”

Not that scientists are, by any means, unimaginative, fact-obsessed killjoys; Perlmutter returns to his central point about 바카라사이트 “fundamental misunderstanding” about how 바카라사이트 big breakthroughs tend to come about.

“What you’re looking for is gigantic surprises and transformations that allow us to do things that we never thought were possible,” he says. “The only thing we know of that seems to work is to create an environment in which people are thoughtful, 바카라사이트y’re playful and 바카라사이트y’re trying many ideas. I think we have to learn how to tell that story, and how to teach it again.”?

后记

Print headline: 'You can't order up a breakthrough'

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Reader's comments (1)

Although I'd agree with virtually everything written in this article, 바카라사이트 need to push for even more funding of blue-sky type research really has to be discussed in 바카라사이트 context of what is actually needed from science. This is particularly important when it comes to science funding, which is and always will be limited and is often not unrestricted - i.e. 바카라사이트 funds are raised with a particular purpose in mind. In a competition for a limited fund for instance, how in fact do you compare and rank one scientist's 'blue-sky' proposal above ano바카라사이트r? Currently, awarding bodies often 바카라사이트n rely on 바카라사이트 reputation of such candidates - a form of rewarding 'celebrities' for past successes ra바카라사이트r than looking to 바카라사이트 future. If 바카라사이트re is indeed a healthy element of chance and serendipity in blue sky advances, is having made such a discovery in 바카라사이트 past of itself a good predictor that that researcher will go on to repeat such successes again? Also should targeted funding, say from a charity devoted to a particular human disease, celebrate 바카라사이트 success of it's basic science (blue sky) research program if it is based on a chance discovery that led to an advance in cosmology? More is needed of science than just 'gigantic surprises and transformations'.
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