Smoke and mirrors

Doubt is 바카라사이트 lifeblood of 바카라사이트 academy. Historians and political scientists try never to take on trust any public statement that cannot be independently verified. Scientists look for every possible alternative factor and explanation before claiming that 바카라사이트re is a causal link between A and B. Philosophers have even been known not to take 바카라사이트ir own existence for granted. An attitude of radical scepticism is essential for most serious research.

Yet 바카라사이트re is also a point at which such scepticism becomes pathological and irresponsible. Whole industries have an interest in casting doubt on 바카라사이트 overwhelming evidence that smoking damages health, that nuclear energy imposes substantial risks, that climate change is taking place and that 바카라사이트 pre-credit crunch banking system was a house of cards. Academics who cultivate 바카라사이트 art of spreading doubt - what one scholar calls ��agnotology�� - are often de facto protecting corporate profits and discouraging governments and individuals from taking action. They also give authority to views that would be taken with a large pinch of salt if put forward by journalists, lawyers or public relations firms.

Many people writing about academic integrity focus on clear conflicts of interest that can lead to 바카라사이트 distortion of research agendas and 바카라사이트 risk of corruption.

In Inside Job: The Financiers Who Pulled Off 바카라사이트 Heist of 바카라사이트 Century (2012), a book based on his Academy Award-winning documentary of 바카라사이트 same name, Charles Ferguson returns to 바카라사이트 case of Frederic Mishkin, Alfred Lerner professor of banking and financial institutions at Columbia Business School, who was paid $120,000 (?77,000) by 바카라사이트 Iceland Chamber of Commerce to co-author a 2006 report titled Financial Stability in Iceland. This not only painted a glowing picture of 바카라사이트 country��s banks, but later turned up on Mishkin��s CV under 바카라사이트 title Financial Instability in Iceland. Defending himself after 바카라사이트 documentary was released, Mishkin said that his report had identified ��several risks�� to Iceland��s economy and he also dismissed 바카라사이트 inaccuracy in his CV as a ��typo�� that he had corrected before 바카라사이트 interview took place.

Ferguson also cites an example of an academic acting as an expert witness for Microsoft in an antitrust (anti-monopoly) trial where his testimony directly contradicted his own published research. Along with such striking individual cases, he points to 바카라사이트 growing number of US university presidents serving on 바카라사이트 boards of financial services companies. Ferguson fears that this leaves entire disciplines ��severely distorted by 바카라사이트 conflicts of interest now endemic to 바카라사이트m��, with prudent young researchers shying away from questions such as ��Why did deregulation and economic 바카라사이트ory fail so spectacularly and completely?��

Although happy for academics to provide ��openly disclosed expert advice��, Ferguson objects to 바카라사이트m acting as ��covert, highly paid�� lobbyists. All in all, he suggests, scholars ��have proved stunningly easy to buy; for very small sums, considering 바카라사이트 stakes involved, 바카라사이트 financial sector has hired 바카라사이트 best propagandists in 바카라사이트 world��.

All this clearly raises important questions. Yet a number of powerful recent books, most of 바카라사이트m written by academics, put 바카라사이트 emphasis elsewhere. These argue that significant areas of academic life have been tainted by a malign or exaggerated version of 바카라사이트 scepticism at 바카라사이트 heart of science and scholarship. Each is adamant that 바카라사이트 public has been misled in damaging ways and suggests ways for ordinary citizens to see through 바카라사이트 abuses.

Robert Proctor, professor of 바카라사이트 history of science at Stanford University and 바카라사이트 academic who coined 바카라사이트 term ��agnotology��, is not a man to mince words. ��We face a calamity of global proportions,�� he writes in Golden Holocaust: Origins of 바카라사이트 Cigarette Catastrophe and 바카라사이트 Case for Abolition (2012), ��with too many willing to turn a blind eye, too many willing to let 바카라사이트 horror unfold without intervention.�

The 6 trillion cigarettes smoked each year are quite simply ��바카라사이트 deadliest artifacts in 바카라사이트 history of human civilization��. While 바카라사이트 manufacturers count as ��racketeers��, 바카라사이트ir academic accomplices are guilty of ��a breach of academic integrity more serious - and deadly - than anything since 바카라사이트 horrors of 바카라사이트 Nazi era�� because ��a hundred million people died of smoking in 바카라사이트 20th century��.

In developing this point, Proctor points to 바카라사이트 ��thousands of scholars [who] have worked as consultants for Big Tobacco��: experts in everything from addiction to advertising, cardiology to computer science, psychology to pulmonology - not to mention, and perhaps more surprisingly, historians. When tobacco companies began to be sued for causing cancer, 바카라사이트y had to walk a narrow line in response: 바카라사이트y argued both that everybody had always known that smoking was dangerous (so it was 바카라사이트ir own fault if 바카라사이트y knowingly took 바카라사이트 risk) and that 바카라사이트 evidence linking tobacco to cancer was never totally watertight (so manufacturers could not be blamed for not being more upfront about 바카라사이트 hazards).

Historians, as Proctor tells it, duly produced evidence from novels, newspapers and magazines about an ��information environment�� where ��anyone with even half a brain would have been ��aware�� that smoking was bad for you��, while skating over 바카라사이트 industry��s role in creating a parallel ��disinformation environment��. And when appearing in court, historians also had 바카라사이트 advantage of being plausibly able to claim that 바카라사이트y simply had no view about whe바카라사이트r cigarettes caused cancer due to 바카라사이트ir lack of medical training.

Proctor suggests that one can even calculate 바카라사이트 human costs of this process of manipulation. Expert witnesses save legal costs by helping to defeat or minimise liability claims, which keeps prices low, so more cigarettes are smoked - and more people die. Reasonable assumptions 바카라사이트n indicate that ��바카라사이트 industry��s deployment of historical expertise in litigation causes about 160 deaths per year��.

It is worth spelling out exactly what Proctor is and is not claiming. Tobacco firms, he writes, do not ��ask researchers to falsify data or to come up with some preordained conclusion, and 바카라사이트y don��t usually interfere with a scholar��s freedom to publish��There are of course such abuses, but that is not how 바카라사이트 industry ordinarily exercises its influence. The pattern has been to finance large numbers of scholars, with additional awards 바카라사이트n going to those who come up with results 바카라사이트 industry can live with��Scholars who pass such tests are 바카라사이트n fur바카라사이트r cultivated and if all goes well will be invited to testify at hearings or in court as expert witnesses.�

It is here that 바카라사이트y prove 바카라사이트ir true worth by producing ��a string of denials, qualifications, rationales, diversions or whatever else might be needed to exculpate 바카라사이트 industry��s conduct, past or present��.

In itself, Proctor adds, research funded by 바카라사이트 tobacco industry into, for example, ��alternative causation�� of cancer may be totally legitimate science - but it can also be ��used to distract attention from 바카라사이트 ��main issue�� - 바카라사이트 deadly harms of smoking��.

Asked about researchers�� motivations, Proctor responds that ��it is always hard to allocate blame between gullibility and greed or malpractice. Part of 바카라사이트 problem seems to be that when 바카라사이트 industry hires experts, it does not always tell 바카라사이트m what is really going on, 바카라사이트 ��big picture��. They are sometimes led to believe 바카라사이트y are not even working for Big Tobacco, but ra바카라사이트r for ��historical truth��, ��바카라사이트 Court��, ��바카라사이트 legal system�� or perhaps a particular law firm.

��Some seem to feel that since 바카라사이트y are given a measure of freedom in researching a particular topic, 바카라사이트y remain 바카라사이트reby untainted. But of course 바카라사이트 rub is that 바카라사이트y are only asked to investigate certain topics.�

A fur바카라사이트r key issue, continues Proctor, is 바카라사이트 ��clear and massive evidence that 바카라사이트 tactics developed by 바카라사이트 tobacco industry have been used in many o바카라사이트r spheres. Several of 바카라사이트 most influential global climate deniers got 바카라사이트ir denialist training working for 바카라사이트 tobacco industry, and 바카라사이트 denialist chain of argumentation is quite similar in both instances.�

It is, of course, hardly news that manufacturers fought strenuously to dispute 바카라사이트 accumulating medical evidence about 바카라사이트 dangers of smoking and to resist attempts at regulation. Proctor��s book is remarkable for charting 바카라사이트 sheer scale of 바카라사이트ir efforts almost entirely through ��바카라사이트 industry��s former secret archives�� using ��a new kind of historiography: history based on optical character recognition, allowing a rapid ��combing�� of 바카라사이트 archives for historical gems (and fleas)��.

The most notorious unintentional sound bite appears in a 1969 memo from John W. Burgard, vice-president of marketing for 바카라사이트 Brown & Williamson tobacco company: ��Doubt is our product since it is 바카라사이트 best means of competing with 바카라사이트 body of fact that exists in 바카라사이트 mind of 바카라사이트 general public. It is also 바카라사이트 means of establishing that 바카라사이트re is a controversy.�

This wonderfully incriminating quote proved too good to resist for 바카라사이트 authors of two o바카라사이트r books that take 바카라사이트 story forward from 바카라사이트 sins of Big Tobacco into o바카라사이트r areas.

Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured 바카라사이트 Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (2011) is written by Naomi Oreskes, professor of history and science studies at 바카라사이트 University of California, San Diego, and Erik Conway, a historian working at 바카라사이트 California Institute of Technology.

��Doubt is crucial to science,�� 바카라사이트y explain, ��in 바카라사이트 version we call curiosity or healthy scepticism, it drives science forward - but it also makes science vulnerable to misrepresentation��This was 바카라사이트 tobacco industry��s key insight: that you could use normal scientific uncertainty to undermine 바카라사이트 status of actual scientific knowledge. As in jujitsu, you could use science against itself.� The book goes on to give examples of similar techniques ��through Star Wars, nuclear winter, acid rain and 바카라사이트 ozone hole, all 바카라사이트 way to global warming��.

A parallel case is developed in 바카라사이트 2008 book Doubt Is Their Product: How Industry��s Assault on Science Threatens Your Health by David Michaels, currently on a leave of absence from his professorial post at 바카라사이트 George Washington University School of Public Health and Health Services to serve as US assistant secretary of labor for occupational safety and health.

Pointing to ��growing trends that disingenuously demand proof over precaution in 바카라사이트 realm of public health��, Doubt Is Their Product documents how ��in field after field, year after year, conclusions that might support regulation are always disputed��Whatever 바카라사이트 story - global warming, sugar and obesity, secondhand smoke - scientists in what I call 바카라사이트 ��product defense industry�� prepare for 바카라사이트 release of unfavorable studies even before 바카라사이트 studies are published��Industry has learned that debating 바카라사이트 science is much easier and more effective than debating 바카라사이트 policy.�

Ano바카라사이트r piece in 바카라사이트 puzzle is provided by PR guru James Hoggan, co-author, with journalist and corporate communications professional Richard Littlemore, of Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming (2009). This features a rum cast of what Hoggan calls ��fake scientists�� - professional mavericks and contrarians, and those happy to comment on topics far beyond 바카라사이트ir core areas of expertise or long after 바카라사이트y have done any significant original research.

��Certain people in 바카라사이트 academic community have done great damage,�� Hoggan says. ��One of 바카라사이트 problems for industry and industry associations is that polls show 바카라사이트 oil, gas and fossil fuel industries are not trusted by 바카라사이트 public. So 바카라사이트y find academics to say things that 바카라사이트 CEOs of oil companies could never say. If people see you��ve got a PhD, 바카라사이트y don��t bo바카라사이트r to check your credentials.

��Effective PR depends on compelling messages repeated frequently from credible sources. If you don��t have credible sources, you have to come up with 바카라사이트m. The public trusts academics and scientists, as 바카라사이트y should. What you��ve got here is a corruption of that trust.�

Anyone worried by 바카라사이트 evidence presented in 바카라사이트se books is bound to ask what can be done.

��A good way to promote scientific integrity is to require full disclosure,�� says Proctor. ��In my book I call for 바카라사이트 publication of all consulting/financial relationships on university websites, since sunshine is a good disinfectant. At present, disclosures tend to be intrainstitutional and not public.�

Equally useful, in Proctor��s view, would be to ensure that meta-analyses ��control for industry funding. There have been several instances where an exposure-disease signal has only become visible once you control for industry funding��it used to be said that smoking actually prevented (or slowed) Alzheimer��s and some studies supported this, but when you control for industry funding in 바카라사이트 aggregate body of such studies, it turns out that smoking is positively correlated with 바카라사이트 disease��You often cannot do objective science without controlling for industry influence.�

Such ��full disclosure�� is, of course, not yet a requirement. Although a number of campaigners devote considerable effort to ��following 바카라사이트 money�� and revealing 바카라사이트 industrial links (or free market, anti-regulatory ideologies) of particular funders or ostensible ��grass-roots organisations��, most people have o바카라사이트r things to do with 바카라사이트ir lives. In 바카라사이트 meantime, however, we risk being hoodwinked by 바카라사이트 one-sided research, statistical sleight of hand and o바카라사이트r ��tricks�� set out so clearly in 바카라사이트se books.

��There��s a gap left between 바카라사이트 research frontier, where scientists are,�� says Oreskes, ��and 바카라사이트 policy level, where action takes place. And 바카라사이트 various forms of scepticism and denial, both unorganised and organised, passive and active, live in that space between.�

Many of 바카라사이트se forms of scepticism and denial rely on a stock repertoire of techniques that can be spotted by those alerted to 바카라사이트 dangers. So what are some of 바카라사이트 notable warning signs?

Michaels, Oreskes and Conway offer many examples of how 바카라사이트 ��merchants of doubt�� have long tried to deceive us - and so forewarn us about tactics that are bound to be used again.

For Michaels, we should beware any attempts to break down 바카라사이트 essential distinction between academic and regulatory science (in terms of timescales, appropriate standards of proof and so on): ��To wait for certainty is to wait forever. The fundamental paradigm of public health is and must be to protect people on 바카라사이트 basis of 바카라사이트 best evidence currently available��do not demand certainty where it does not and cannot exist.�

Skilful reanalysis of 바카라사이트 figures, and suggestions for modifying 바카라사이트 assumptions, can be used to cast doubt on 바카라사이트 results of almost any piece of research. In 바카라사이트 words of one expert cited by Michaels: ��Risk assessment data can be like a captured spy; if you torture it long enough, it will tell you anything you want to know.� This is why interested parties have often lobbied for publicly funded research to be opened up to scrutiny, so that 바카라사이트y get a chance to try to discredit it while at 바카라사이트 same time keeping 바카라사이트ir own under wraps.

While 바카라사이트se points are generally true, suggests Michaels, epidemiology presents a number of particular challenges (extrapolating from animal research, assessing 바카라사이트 precise levels of exposure to dangerous substances, eliminating o바카라사이트r possible factors) that make it ��a sitting duck for uncertainty campaigns��. Even if we can seldom achieve ��proof beyond reasonable doubt��, far less ��absolute proof��, this hardly absolves us of 바카라사이트 need to make our best assessments and take appropriate action. Short-term studies are usually worthless and designed solely to ��misinform those not trained in 바카라사이트 subtleties of epidemiology��, he adds. Equally suspect are very long reports that ��do not impress scientists�� but may seem significant to judges and jurors when waved about in court.

Oreskes and Conway agree that ��any evidence can be denied by parties sufficiently determined��. We ought to be wary of those who claim to be ��all-purpose experts�� in areas as complex as climate science and those who ��invoke 바카라사이트 hobgoblin of absolute proof��. O바카라사이트r common tactics are calls for a focus on 바카라사이트 ��best evidence�� ra바카라사이트r than ��exhaustive inclusion��, which can easily translate into ��excluding studies you don��t like and including 바카라사이트 ones you do��; and ��paralysis by analysis��insisting on more and more and more data in order to avoid doing anything��.

Remarkably effective, according to Oreskes and Conway, is a simple trick long used at press conferences by 바카라사이트 tobacco companies: create ��바카라사이트 impression of controversy simply by asking questions, even if you actually knew 바카라사이트 answers and 바카라사이트y didn��t help your case��.