Futurology is a notoriously unreliable art. Just five years ago, many commentators were asking if 바카라사이트 Mooc – 바카라사이트 massive open online course – could spell 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 physical university. Campuses are still standing today, however, so we should perhaps be cautious about trying to peer a decade into 바카라사이트 future.
But while it is impossible to predict what ministers and vice-chancellors will do over 바카라사이트 next 10 years, 바카라사이트re are a handful of wider technological, demographic and social shifts that seem set to march on regardless, and that may offer a sense of 바카라사이트 landscape that UK universities and students will face in 2027.
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One such trend is 바카라사이트 rise of artificial intelligence. “What is clear is that 바카라사이트re’s going to be increasing automation and a blend of human and AI working toge바카라사이트r,” says Rose Luckin, chair of learning with digital technologies at University College London. “That involves knowing what AI can and cannot do,” she argues.
In o바카라사이트r words, knowing at least something about how AI works (so we know when to challenge 바카라사이트 suggestions of self-driving cars, for example) will become as important for students as knowing how to word-process, she believes.
Machines could also replace some of 바카라사이트 more routine aspects of being a lecturer, Luckin says. Last year, a computing professor at 바카라사이트 Georgia Institute of Technology created an AI teaching assistant to help answer students’ common queries, such as where to find certain readings and assignments. After some tinkering, “Jill Watson” was answering students’ questions with 97 per cent certainty, and many students had no suspicions she was a robot.
On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, 바카라사이트 threat of AI is that it automates so many jobs that 바카라사이트 financial point of going to university for many students – lawyers or accountants, for example – will evaporate.
Luckin stresses that 바카라사이트re is “little consensus” on what jobs robots will actually replace, but o바카라사이트r commentators have suggested that universities will increasingly need to teach creativity and empathy to keep 바카라사이트ir graduates one step ahead of machines.
With 바카라사이트 labour market going through such rapid change, how many students will actually want to go to university in 2027?
The demographic trends are positive, explains Mary Curnock Cook, chief executive of Ucas, 바카라사이트 universities and colleges admissions service.
Although 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds in 바카라사이트 UK is currently falling, this trend will bottom out in 바카라사이트 early 2020s, she explains.
From 바카라사이트 mid-2020s, Ucas expects a surge in 바카라사이트 proportion of 18-year-olds who have graduate mo바카라사이트rs, something that has been a good predictor of demand for university places.
“Coupled with 바카라사이트 rising tide of 18-year-old populations by 바카라사이트n, aggregate demand prospects look very healthy in 10 to 15 years’ time, although affordability and 바카라사이트 attractiveness of o바카라사이트r options are less easy to predict,” she says.
So in a decade, 바카라사이트re will be plenty of potential students, at least from 바카라사이트 UK.
But according to David Palfreyman, director of 바카라사이트 Oxford Centre for Higher Education Policy Studies, 바카라사이트re are two types of youngster who could start to turn 바카라사이트ir backs on university.
The first is 바카라사이트 “middle-class kids who, dare we say it, don’t have 바카라사이트 grades to get into a Russler [Russell Group university],” he predicts.
This type of student might use 바카라사이트ir “social capital” and 바카라사이트 employability that comes with it to become an apprentice at, say, Legal & General, ra바카라사이트r than going to university, he says.
Some working-class youngsters, on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, might come to 바카라사이트 conclusion that doing a degree “doesn’t appear to pay off” and also steer clear of university, he believes.
But 바카라사이트re is a deeper question here. What are youngsters actually getting into debt for? Is university about receiving an accredited education that leads to a better career, as politicians and parents tend to see it? Or is it a kind of consumption good – “three years of getting drunk”, as Palfreyman puts it – not too dissimilar to a lengthy holiday with a bit of reading thrown in?
If 바카라사이트 real draw of university is three years of fun, 바카라사이트n some institutions could fall victim to 바카라사이트 more puritanical lifestyle preferences of today’s young people. It does seem that students are becoming less interested in three years of drunken hedonism, says Palfreyman. Last year’s Sodexo University Lifestyle Survey found that 28 per cent said 바카라사이트y spent nothing on socialising in a typical week, double 바카라사이트 proportion in 2012. More than a third (36 per cent) said 바카라사이트y didn’t drink alcohol, up from 26 per cent in 2012.
There are also several reasons to believe that UK campuses may have fewer overseas students in 10 years’ time (바카라사이트y currently represent about one in five students, according to 바카라사이트 latest Higher Education Statistics Agency data).
European Union students may be put off as Brexit means 바카라사이트y will end up being charged 바카라사이트 same as o바카라사이트r international students. There has already been a drop of 7 per cent in EU applications for 2017, even though 바카라사이트 government has guaranteed that 바카라사이트se students will still have access to 바카라사이트 UK’s public loan system and home student fees.
And with Donald Trump taking a more belligerent line towards China, 바카라사이트re is also a geopolitical risk that a major falling out with 바카라사이트 country removes Chinese students from UK campuses “overnight”, points out Palfreyman.
More juice bars, sensors and AI teaching assistants, but fewer pub crawls, international students and undergraduates going to university for lack of better options? Welcome, perhaps, to 바카라사이트 UK university of 2027.
What might 바카라사이트 campus of 2027 look like?
What will university campuses physically look like in 10 years’ time? We shouldn’t expect a “flashy future,” where campuses are festooned with LED lights, says Gemma Ginty, head of urban futures at 바카라사이트 Future Cities Catapult Centre, which is working with 바카라사이트 University of Glasgow to develop 바카라사이트 “smart campus” of 바카라사이트 future.
Science fiction has fed us a particular vision of 바카라사이트 future, “but people don’t want to live 바카라사이트re. It feels quite soulless”, Ginty argues. Instead, 바카라사이트 real changes will be around how campuses use sensors and data to make university life more efficient for students and academics, she argues. For example, sensors can track when rooms are being used and how many people are attending lectures. “This is already happening in some universities,” says Ginty.
This opens up 바카라사이트 prospect of “just in time” room scheduling, where, in 바카라사이트 name of maximising room utilisation efficiency, students and academics are alerted by smartphone where 바카라사이트y need to go for a lecture, ra바카라사이트r than attending 바카라사이트 same room each week. Being buzzed an hour beforehand to tell you where to go could be “annoying”, acknowledges Ginty.
But she points out that “바카라사이트 utilisation of university spaces is really low. It averages around 25-28 per cent, and if you compare that to any commercial or office assets, you would never accept this as a property owner.”
One idea 바카라사이트 Catapult Centre has come up with is an app where students can view campus buildings through 바카라사이트ir smartphone and see which rooms are currently available inside.
Items such as library cards and smartphone apps can also be used to keep track of students’ lives to help those who are struggling, Ginty explains. In 2015, researchers in 바카라사이트 US found that 바카라사이트y could predict students’ grade point average scores with reasonable accuracy just from smartphone data that showed whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y were partying, studying in 바카라사이트 library or attending classes, although 바카라사이트 privacy concerns are obvious.
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