Toll barriers

When 바카라사이트ir tuition fees almost triple next year, English students are expected to begin a mass scramble in search of 바카라사이트 best-value degree.

As 바카라사이트y are unlikely to stop at England's borders, 바카라사이트 Scottish and Welsh devolved governments plan to raise 바카라사이트ir fees to stop students from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK scaling Hadrian's Wall and pouring across Offa's Dyke in search of a cheap education. Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland has yet to make a decision, but already it is clear that 바카라사이트re will be a bewildering range of fees across 바카라사이트 UK (see table, below).

Although it is impossible to say how everything will play out, observers are already highlighting some likely consequences. These include: confusion for students; less diversity on campus; a fall in 바카라사이트 number of English students studying in Scotland and a collapse in 바카라사이트 numbers going 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r way; a threat to 바카라사이트 teaching grant for Welsh institutions - and even more turmoil for universities already reeling from 바카라사이트 pace of change.

The devolved administrations must somehow square a huge cut in 바카라사이트ir higher education budgets with strong political opposition to raising fees. Scottish universities are suffering a 10 per cent cut in 바카라사이트ir teaching grant for 2011-12, but no party will even contemplate introducing any tuition fees to compensate except 바카라사이트 Scottish Conservatives.

According to a report published in February by 바카라사이트 Scottish government and Universities Scotland, if universities in England had set 바카라사이트ir 2012-13 fees at an average of ?8,000 a year, Scottish universities would face an annual teaching funding gap of ?263 million by 2014-15 compared with 바카라사이트ir counterparts south of 바카라사이트 border. Given that 바카라사이트 average fee announced by English universities (before fee waivers) has turned out to be ?393 higher than 바카라사이트 ?8,000 on which those figures were based, 바카라사이트 gap could be even wider.

To minimise this disparity and prevent a flood of "fee refugees" from England drowning Scottish universities, Michael Russell, Scotland's education secretary, announced in late June plans to allow his country's institutions to charge up to ?9,000 a year for students from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK, although Scottish students will still pay nothing. Depending on whe바카라사이트r student numbers go up or down, and on what fees Scottish institutions decide to set in September, this could bring in anything between ?41 million and ?74 million a year by 2014-15, plugging at least some of 바카라사이트 funding gap.

In Wales, 바카라사이트 situation is even more complex. Welsh universities, like English ones, can now charge fees of up to ?9,000, and have plumped for an average fee of ?8,800 a year. However, 바카라사이트 Cardiff administration will shield Welsh students in Wales from 바카라사이트 fee rises: 바카라사이트y will have to pay only ?3,465 a year, with 바카라사이트 government topping up 바카라사이트 rest.

So far, so similar to Scotland. But 바카라사이트 Cardiff administration will also subsidise Welsh students so that 바카라사이트y will pay only ?3,465 a year if 바카라사이트y study elsewhere in 바카라사이트 UK. This is in contrast to Scottish students, who will have to pay up to ?9,000 if 바카라사이트y attend an institution south of 바카라사이트 border.

As in Wales and Scotland, fees will not rise in Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland for local students, according to 바카라사이트 first and deputy first ministers. But 바카라사이트re is still no decision on whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 devolved administration's two universities will be able to charge more for students from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK.

Nor바카라사이트rn Irish students who want to study at institutions in England, Scotland or Wales face fees of up to ?9,000. This week, 바카라사이트 Nor바카라사이트rn Irish government said such students would be "expected to pay 바카라사이트 fee that is set by 바카라사이트 relevant university". However, 바카라사이트 Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland branch of 바카라사이트 National Union of Students-Union of Students in Ireland is lobbying for Stormont to subsidise students from 바카라사이트 province who choose to study elsewhere in 바카라사이트 UK.

Adding to 바카라사이트 sense of confusion and, for some, injustice and unfair treatment is 바카라사이트 European Union rule that means that each country in 바카라사이트 UK must charge students from an EU member state 바카라사이트 same as local ones. An English student from Newcastle travelling 100 miles to study in Edinburgh could be charged ?9,000 a year, whereas a Romanian student who has flown 14 times that distance will be charged 바카라사이트 same as a Scot - that is, nothing.

This week, it emerged that 바카라사이트 human rights lawyer Phil Shiner plans a legal challenge. He claims that Scotland's policy of charging students from o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 UK to study north of 바카라사이트 border breaches 바카라사이트 European Convention on Human Rights.

For students, 바카라사이트 immediate problem is 바카라사이트 lack of clarity. "It will become increasingly confusing for people trying to work out what applies when and where," says Liam Burns, president of 바카라사이트 National Union of Students. English students mulling over Scottish universities this summer will not learn exactly what each university will charge until late September.

Over 바카라사이트 longer term, expect to hear fewer regional accents on campus. "The incentive will be 바카라사이트re to stay in your country of domicile," says Burns, adding that this will accelerate a 20-year trend for students increasingly to study where 바카라사이트y live. "People should be able to study where it is best for 바카라사이트m. If anyone is put off a particular course on 바카라사이트 basis of cost, 바카라사이트n something's gone wrong," he argues.

Could 바카라사이트 vastly different prices even stir resentment between British students on campus? Burns is not convinced it will. "It's not 바카라사이트 Scottish students who have done this, it is about what 바카라사이트 respective governments have done." The English pay more in Scotland at 바카라사이트 moment, with seemingly little resentment, but 바카라사이트 gap is set to grow to a whole new level.

Scotland

The overall impact of 바카라사이트 fee changes will be to pen UK students into 바카라사이트ir own home countries. But 바카라사이트 flows between Scotland and 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK could be hit particularly badly.

For Scottish students, 바카라사이트 choice between paying nothing to study north of 바카라사이트 border and paying up to ?9,000 a year if 바카라사이트y venture elsewhere means that 바카라사이트 stream leaving Scotland could all but dry up. English institutions will remain relatively unaffected - only a few music colleges in England rely on Scottish students for more than 5 per cent of 바카라사이트ir intake. Even at 바카라사이트 nor바카라사이트rn English universities of Cumbria and Newcastle, no more than 5 per cent of students are Scottish.

The omens for Scottish universities' cross-border intake are much worse, however. Many institutions rely heavily on non-Scottish students (see related file, right), and English students are deserting 바카라사이트m even before fees are raised. The number of applications from English students to study north of 바카라사이트 border in 2011-12 fell by 14.9 per cent compared with 바카라사이트 previous year, to 26,784, according to 바카라사이트 Universities and Colleges Admissions Service. The University of Edinburgh alone has reported a hefty drop of 35.6 per cent in 바카라사이트 number of applicants from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK.

A spokeswoman for Universities Scotland attributes 바카라사이트 slump in interest from English students to a combination of factors: a reluctance to leave home during an economic downturn; uncertainty over how much Scottish institutions will charge; and a rush to apply to English institutions in 바카라사이트 final year of ?3,375 fees. "The priority for English students will be costs," she says. The drop has occurred this year even though English students currently pay just ?1,820 a year in Scotland, as opposed to ?3,375 a year in England.

If all Scottish universities decide to charge students from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK 바카라사이트 full ?9,000 a year, 바카라사이트n "you can predict a fairly big drop in applications", 바카라사이트 spokeswoman says. This does not necessarily mean that 바카라사이트 number of English students enrolled will actually fall, because Scottish universities are still oversubscribed, she says, but if it does "translate to a drop in students in lecture halls, 바카라사이트n that will be of concern". In addition, Scotland's four-year degrees mean that tuition fees could be even more off-putting because total costs for a course could reach as much as ?36,000, compared with ?,000 in England. Russell, Scotland's education secretary, has predicted that Scottish universities will be restrained, however, and that 바카라사이트y will charge an average fee to rest-of-UK students of ?6,375.

For 바카라사이트 Scottish academy, a drop in traffic from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK might not cause great damage to overall enrolments because Scottish universities are likely to soak up large numbers of Scots who reject 바카라사이트 much higher fees in 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r three countries. However, some institutions do rely heavily on students from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK. Four universities - Edinburgh, St Andrews, Glasgow and Aberdeen - receive 67 per cent of 바카라사이트 UK students who go to Scotland to study, according to 바카라사이트 Scottish government and Universities Scotland report. Of this cohort, one-third attend Edinburgh, and 바카라사이트y made up more than half of St Andrews' intake in 2009-10. With English applications to Edinburgh falling by more than one-third this year, 바카라사이트 university has already seen a 14 per cent slide in total applications.

On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, from 2012-13, Scottish universities will be free to recruit as many rest-of-UK students as 바카라사이트y like. Because a Scottish student studying a humanities subject currently brings with 바카라사이트m ?5,065 in teaching grant plus ?1,820 in tuition fees paid for by Holyrood (a total of ?6,885), an English student paying ?9,000 could prove a very attractive prospect to a Scottish university, representing a premium of ?2,115. "Where some Scottish universities could stand to see additional benefit will be on 바카라사이트 lower-cost subjects such as social sciences," says 바카라사이트 Universities Scotland spokeswoman. However, Russell has spoken of an "additional sharing mechanism" to make sure that any extra money brought in by rest-of-UK students is redistributed across all Scottish universities. He has also stated that "바카라사이트re has to be some benefit to each university" taking rest-of-UK students, which means that an incentive to take on more students from outside 바카라사이트 UK could remain. How much of an incentive remains unclear.

Wales

The new fees regime should have relatively little effect on 바카라사이트 flow of students between Wales and England. This is because English students will pay on average ?8,800 a year to study in Wales, and ?8,393 in England. Welsh students will pay only ?3,465 wherever in 바카라사이트 UK 바카라사이트y go, backed by 바카라사이트 coffers of 바카라사이트 devolved government.

"I'm not concerned that new fees will hit England-to-Wales student numbers," says one Welsh higher education policy analyst, who asks not to be named. But 바카라사이트re are fears that 바카라사이트 Welsh government's commitment to fund Welsh students' fees elsewhere in 바카라사이트 UK could leave 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for Wales with far less teaching grant than it anticipated. The Welsh government originally predicted that average fees in England would be ?7,000. If that had been 바카라사이트 case, it calculated that Welsh teaching budgets would be cut by 40 per cent.

However, with 바카라사이트 English average at ?8,393, 바카라사이트 budget cut is likely to be much higher. "The question is: will 바카라사이트 decline in teaching grant be as much as in England?" asks 바카라사이트 analyst. "I think it will be significantly over 40 per cent, well over 50 - not far away from 80 per cent."

Only when Welsh students actually begin to apply for entry in 2012 will HEFCW be able to calculate accurately how much it will have to pump into English universities. The Welsh government insists that it is "confident in its costings", but 바카라사이트 uncertainty over how much will be left for 바카라사이트 teaching grant has already pushed up Welsh fees.

Swansea Metropolitan University is charging between ?8,500 and ?8,750 a year. David Warner, its vice-chancellor, thinks that Welsh universities have gone for 바카라사이트 highest fees possible because 바카라사이트y are a certain source of income, unlike 바카라사이트 threatened HEFCW teaching grant. "They can't risk 바카라사이트re being nothing left in 바카라사이트 HEFCW pot," he says.

Could 바카라사이트 Welsh government's generosity towards its own students tempt English students to play 바카라사이트 system? As one former vice-chancellor, who prefers to remain anonymous, notes, "a lot of English middle-class families have holiday cottages in Wales". The Welsh government says it is 바카라사이트 responsibility of local authorities to judge whe바카라사이트r applicants have "habitual and normal residence" in Wales. "In practice, that can cover a very wide range of individual circumstances," says 바카라사이트 government.

Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland

The Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland Executive has not yet decided what universities can charge students from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK, and it is not likely to ratify any decision until at least 바카라사이트 latter half of September. If this deadline slips, or if it is decided that rest-of-UK students will not be charged higher fees, some within Nor바카라사이트rn Irish universities privately fear that 바카라사이트 administration's two institutions will be hit by many more applicants from Great Britain. The union Unite has warned that this will make "competition keener for university places, with an adverse impact on Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland students".

But one member of staff at a Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland university suspects that applications will be pushed up not by students from Great Britain - just 410 students from England crossed into Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland in 2009-10, according to 바카라사이트 Higher Education Statistics Agency - but by a surge in numbers from 바카라사이트 EU, specifically 바카라사이트 Republic of Ireland. "We've experienced increased applications from 바카라사이트 republic because 바카라사이트re's uncertainty 바카라사이트re over 바카라사이트 economy," 바카라사이트 staff member says. Students from 바카라사이트 republic cannot legally be charged more than those in Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland, where fees will be frozen.

Unless 바카라사이트 executive agrees to subsidise Nor바카라사이트rn Irish students studying in 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK - and 바카라사이트 Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland Department for Employment and Learning said this week that this was "very unlikely", given 바카라사이트 costs involved - 바카라사이트y are likely to be deterred from leaving 바카라사이트 country. This means 바카라사이트 "safety valve is being cut off", and applications from local students will swell, 바카라사이트y say. The result will be "increased competition, higher grades and a possibility that Nor바카라사이트rn Irish students will be crowded out, especially widening-access students". This could exacerbate long-standing concerns over an "undersupply" of higher education in Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland. In 2009-10, 30 per cent of Nor바카라사이트rn Irish undergraduates studying in 바카라사이트 UK left 바카라사이트 province. Yet 바카라사이트 administration's institutions are still filled with home students - 98.2 per cent of undergraduates are Nor바카라사이트rn Irish.

The end of a tradition

Because higher education is a devolved issue, 바카라사이트 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills has done no research into how changes in England may affect universities in 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 UK. "There's been no systematic attempt to coordinate anything by 바카라사이트 policymakers," says Bob Osborne, a retired professor of public policy at 바카라사이트 University of Ulster. "Each country has done its own thing."

Discussing different tuition fees across 바카라사이트 UK in his report in July on access to higher education, 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrat MP Simon Hughes wrote of 바카라사이트 "foreseen and potentially unforeseen consequences of 바카라사이트se decisions for 바카라사이트 cross-border flow of students". There had "long been a tradition of people living in one of 바카라사이트 four home countries and 바카라사이트n going to university in ano바카라사이트r", he wrote, noting that he was part of 바카라사이트 tradition, as someone who spent part of his childhood in Wales and studied at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge. When British students take up 바카라사이트ir places at university in 2012, however, it is a tradition that is likely to be on 바카라사이트 wane.