Hole in 바카라사이트 budget?
Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 government has also confirmed that its estimate of 바카라사이트 portion of student loans that will never be repaid has risen to 45 per cent.
The independent economic forecaster, 바카라사이트 Office for Budget Responsibility, this week published its latest ‘Economic and fiscal outlook’, including forecasts on student loan repayments.
Over a six-year forecast period between 2013 and 2018, forecast repayments are ?2.5 billion lower than 바카라사이트y were in 바카라사이트 OBR’s last report in December.
Andrew McGettigan, author of The Great University Gamble, who first highlighted 바카라사이트 OBR figures, : “This may present difficulties for [바카라사이트 Department for Business Innovation and Skills’] budgets in 바카라사이트 near term and certainly poses acute questions for any attempt to sell loans issued to those starting undergraduate study before 2012.”
The government has said it will use 바카라사이트 sale of pre-2012 income-contingent loans to fund 바카라사이트 expansion of student places resulting from 바카라사이트 abolition of student number controls.
The OBR’s downward revision of repayments comes on top of warnings that, as result of rising estimates of 바카라사이트 level of subsidy needed for 바카라사이트 new loans system, 바카라사이트 government may find it has saved little or no public money by trebling fees to ?9,000 and scrapping direct grant.
The revision has occurred because of lower forecasts in earnings growth for less well-paid graduates, 바카라사이트 OBR indicates.
Its report says 바카라사이트 loans forecast is “little changed” from December. But it says 바카라사이트 new forecast “makes greater use of Student Loans Company data, in addition to survey data, and also makes greater use of historic earnings data to project forward individuals’ future earnings paths”.
The OBR continues: “These changes have widened 바카라사이트 projected earnings distribution over time, which, since payments are only due over a particular threshold, has reduced our forecast for aggregate repayments.
“As a consequence, we now expect greater write-offs beyond our medium-term forecast horizon, and will update 바카라사이트 longer-term projections in our next FSR [Fiscal Sustainability Report], to be published in July.”
Bahram Bekhradnia, president of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute, said of 바카라사이트 revision: “It means 바카라사이트 government’s own advisers are telling 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트ir higher education budget will be massively overrun. We didn’t expect this to become official so quickly.
“There will be nowhere for BIS to hide now.”
He added that “바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r thing this does is to make it even less likely 바카라사이트y can sell 바카라사이트 loan book at a price anyone would regard as reasonable. This also jeopardises 바카라사이트 policy of liberating student numbers.”
In a written parliamentary answer given yesterday, David Willetts, 바카라사이트 universities and science minister, revealed new government estimates on 바카라사이트 Resource Accounting and Budgeting charge – 바카라사이트 estimated portion of loan outlay that will never be repaid.
The government’s original estimate of 바카라사이트 RAB charge was 28 per cent, but it has been revised upwards several times.
Mr Willetts , Labour’s shadow minister for universities, science and skills: “We currently estimate 바카라사이트 RAB charge on student loans to be around 45 per cent… By its nature an estimate is subject to change as it is highly dependent on macroeconomic circumstances, and 바카라사이트 growth of graduate earnings over 바카라사이트 next 30 years.
“We will continue to review our estimates in line with 바카라사이트 latest data and advice from experts and stakeholders.”
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