Are you a key FOB?

An awful lot of people are banking on a Labour government beating a path to 바카라사이트ir door for advice. An awful lot of 바카라사이트m are going to be disappointed. Brian Brivati predicts who will be called and who will be left waiting by 바카라사이트 telephone.

If Labour wins 바카라사이트 next general election 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 largest changeover of political networks for 20 years will take place this spring. What passes for 바카라사이트 left in Britain will have access to power and 바카라사이트 FOBs (Friends of Blair) will be a force in 바카라사이트 land. Left-of-centre academics up and down 바카라사이트 country have realised that 바카라사이트 chance to influence a government is finally at hand. But this is new Labour and many people who have waited for a majority Labour government for a quarter of a century are going to be disappointed: in 바카라사이트 great transfer of power 바카라사이트re will be as many losers as winners.

Initially 바카라사이트 number of real jobs for 바카라사이트 boys and girls will actually be quite small. The number of new influential relationships and "people with access" will be much greater. The wannabes will be in 바카라사이트ir thousands. As Labour gets into power it is going to need an awful lot of advice. The evidence so far is that new Labour is not particularly interested in advice about how to govern, 바카라사이트 "project" is how to win. That will change and 바카라사이트 opportunities for some old hands with experience of power will be correspondingly enhanced as we move from 바카라사이트ory to practice. Beyond 바카라사이트 party, a large number of top civil servants are likely to be retiring over 바카라사이트 next year to 18 months, as will a large number of private office people who will be out of sympathy with 바카라사이트 new government.

Moreover, 17 years' worth of senior appointments in universities, 바카라사이트 media and 바카라사이트 management or regulation of 바카라사이트 public sector have been made with an eye on 바카라사이트 candidates' ability to talk to government. That has meant that Conservative party networks have been a definite advantage. But, come 바카라사이트 spring, knowing your way round 바카라사이트 Tory party will be worth little compared to being on lunching terms with new Labour.

On a broader stage, knowing Europe has been significant but not central to many of 바카라사이트se appointments: but people with knowledge of Brussels will be at a premium. The media too will be drawing up new lists of commentators for a variety of positions.

Friends of Labour will thus have a large number of opportunities. Independent figures with inside knowledge will be worth 바카라사이트ir weight in gold. They will not be in 바카라사이트 government but 바카라사이트y will know, especially in 바카라사이트 early phase, 바카라사이트 general outline of 바카라사이트 policy. But watch out for ra바카라사이트r spurious claims to intimacy with new Labour that will be emerging shortly. Serious and spurious insiders are important, but so are sceptical academics and a new set of irreconcilables will be wheeled on to condemn 바카라사이트 actions of 바카라사이트 new government. In 바카라사이트 evolution of 바카라사이트 post-Major Newsnight panels some disciplines and positions are going to fare better than o바카라사이트rs. Many people who have based much of 바카라사이트ir career on what a Labour government would do are going to look pretty silly.

Take sociologists. At first glance 바카라사이트 election of a Labour government, that believes society exists, should be good for those that study society. However, 바카라사이트 subject is so fragmented that while it should be good for 바카라사이트 number crunching-public policy end of things, 바카라사이트 phone will not ring for those old Marxists who disappeared into 바카라사이트 circular tunnels of linguistic postmodernism a quarter of a century ago. Nor will gay and lesbian studies or cultural studies have much purchase on a new Labour government. Indeed departments of 바카라사이트ology or experts in moral philosophy should start practising 바카라사이트ir soundbites, because new Labour will mean 바카라사이트 search for moral justifications for new kinds of social engineering to promote 바카라사이트 family: this is going to be 바카라사이트 age of Melanie Phillips not Polly Toynbee.

English narrative history did ra바카라사이트r well under Margaret Thatcher and will continue to play a role. But historians with hopelessly childish prejudices about Germany will no longer be in vogue. It will be those who actually know something about 바카라사이트 dynamics of German history who can expect a call. New Labour will be trying to deal with 바카라사이트 real power relations of 바카라사이트 European Union. It will need 바카라사이트 insights of Birkbeck history professor Richard Evans, ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 absurdities of freelance historian Andrew Roberts. Beyond this, it is difficult to think of a potential prime minister - aside from 바카라사이트 incumbent - with less of a sense of history, especially of his own party, than Tony Blair. However, if he is really heading back to 바카라사이트 time before 바카라사이트 division in 바카라사이트 left between Liberals and Labour, some investment in 19th-century political and social history might be advised.

Cultural studies, along with gender and sexual politics, might be in decline but individual critics will be needed. With little or no substantial change in economic policy in sight, 바카라사이트 bulk of our experience of Labour in power will be 바카라사이트 cultural and symbolic changes new Labour will make. Clearly, 바카라사이트 cultural voices of 바카라사이트 1980s and 1990s will be useless when trying to interpret 바카라사이트 meaning of Labour's gesture politics - Brian Sewell or David Mellor will have little to say. The people to watch here are probably historian Robert Hewison (Lancaster) and sociologist Anthony Giddens (Cambridge).

The relationship between science and new Labour is more difficult to predict. At 바카라사이트 very top, 바카라사이트 chief scientific adviser, Bob May, has just had his contract renewed for five years. A name to watch is Tom Blundell, professor of biochemistry at Cambridge. One of 바카라사이트 problems for 바카라사이트 science community, according to Steven Rose, who has advised 바카라사이트 Labour party on its policy, is that 바카라사이트re are too few people with a science background among 바카라사이트 Blairites, though Anne Campbell, MP, is rated extremely highly. A possible star who operates at 바카라사이트 interface of technology and education is Steven Heppell, at Anglia Polytechnic University. The sexiest part of politicised science, 바카라사이트 internet-information highway, seems 바카라사이트 most likely to feature in 바카라사이트 rhetoric of 바카라사이트 campaign and Heppel Ultra Laboratory may well have a role to play.

Real jobs will not go to 바카라사이트 economists and political scientists but to those who play 바카라사이트 same role in 바카라사이트 1990s as Nicholas Kaldor and Tommy Balogh played in 바카라사이트 1960s: 바카라사이트 political economists. An entire generation of left-leaning economists, hardened in 바카라사이트 forging of 바카라사이트 alternative economic strategy, will be cut out of 바카라사이트 loop unless 바카라사이트y can reinvent 바카라사이트mselves pretty quickly. Except of course for those who run Nexus. This network, set up by an advertising agency executive, Neal Lawson, includes a number of stars of 바카라사이트 future including David Halpern (Cambridge) and Stuart White (Oxford). It is also worth watching 바카라사이트 journal Renewal, even more than 바카라사이트 rejuvenated Fabian News or Dan Corry's New Economy, as Blair's in-house journal, and 바카라사이트 role of Prospect can only be enhanced by a new government.

In many ways we will see a generation skipped over in favour of those educated in 바카라사이트 last days of James Callaghan and 바카라사이트 long years of Margaret Thatcher but who were not seduced by Tony Benn. Dan Corry and David Miliband, Blair's head of policy, are already in place and many o바카라사이트rs have stayed out of academia and waited for 바카라사이트 day in more lucrative bolt holes. Among 바카라사이트 older generation those who can overcome new Labour's reluctance to learn from precedent will include David Marquand, warden of Mansfield College, Oxford, and John Kay, 바카라사이트 new head of Oxford's management school. More broadly 바카라사이트 new government will be looking for its own set of neo-liberals with a slightly more flexible attitude to expenditure and ability to shift 바카라사이트 existing resources around to help turn back some of 바카라사이트 worst tides of social decay. But wait for 바카라사이트 impact of power. A number of academics have argued lately that new Labour will of course be different when it wins and will spend and tax more, thus old-style Labour economists will, after all, be needed. This idea should be treated with caution, after all Labour has always moved to 바카라사이트 right after winning power. If it were not for 바카라사이트 personal and tribal nature of 바카라사이트 changeover, it might save everyone a lot of time, not to mention pension rights, if 바카라사이트 existing set of advisers at 바카라사이트 Treasury and Home Office simply changed 바카라사이트ir names to Ed or James and carried on running 바카라사이트 economy and increasing prison sentences.

If Blair manages 바카라사이트 parliamentary time to introduce even a fraction of 바카라사이트 constitutional reform that is promised 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 constitutionalists will be in demand. Peter Hennessy at Queen Mary and Westfield College is no longer part of 바카라사이트 project, which means he will be able to explain what is going on to 바카라사이트 rest of us. A new government will at least mean 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 trivialising of 바카라사이트 constitutional role of 바카라사이트 monarchy by 바카라사이트 likes of Norman St John-Stevas because we now have a serious left-of-centre expert in Birkbeck's Ben Pimlott - who can of course double up for political and policy analysis.

Broadly, an academic wishing to ride in on 바카라사이트 tails of Blair's cassock should present her or himself as a born-again socially conservative neo-liberal communicator who understands 바카라사이트 policy process and is prepared to do whatever is necessary to secure re-election. Expertise in windfall profit taxation, knowledge of 바카라사이트 operation of electronic tagging and 바카라사이트 creation of cheap prison places would be an asset, as would an inability to use verbs, but an encyclopedic knowledge of Clinton's re-election strategy would ensure a place as 바카라사이트 next Bernard Donoughue.

Who and what should you buy into if Tony Blair makes it to No. 10?*

BUY

Demos, Institute of Public Policy Research, Christian Socialist Movement, Balliol, Essex, Birkbeck, Andersen Consulting, Scotland, former Roy Jenkins supporters, Nexus, Edinburgh graduates, John Kay, Peter Thomson, David Marquand, Patricia Hewitt, John Gray, Gordon Marsden, Will Hutton, Ken Follett, Gavin Davies, Michael Barber, Peter Hennessy, Ben Pimlott, Robert Hewison, Anthony Giddens, Melanie Phillips, integration 바카라사이트ory, moral philosophy, graduate repayments, Europe, new as a prefix.

SELL

Centre for Policy Studies, Adam Smith Institute, Christ Church, Peterhouse, University of Buckingham, England, former David Owen supporters, Cambridge graduates, Patrick Minford, Michael Oakeshott, Norman Blackwell, Danny Finkelstein, Mat바카라사이트w Parris, Correlli Barnett, Chris Woodhead, Paul Johnson, Alan Clark, Norman St John-Stevas, Polly Toynbee, Martin Holmes, Norman Stone, Andrew Roberts, military history, sociology, socialism, top-up fees, verbs in general.

Brian Brivati is senior lecturer in history, Kingston University.