Australia’s government will lose more than it gains from its freeze of higher education teaching grants, an analysis commissioned by 바카라사이트 country’s universities has concluded.
The study, by Cadence Economics, modelled 바카라사이트 implications of a reduction in graduate numbers, a predicted result of 바카라사이트 freeze. It found that 바카라사이트 move, which will save 바카라사이트 government some A$2.1 billion (?1.2 billion), will cost it between A$2.2 billion and A$3.9 billion in tax receipts over 바카라사이트 next two decades.
It will also reduce Australia’s gross domestic product by between A$6.9 billion and A$12.3 billion, because a labour force denied thousands of degree-qualified workers will be less productive.
The report says that tens of thousands of people will miss out on 바카라사이트 salary “premium” generated by university credentials, and will pay less tax as a result. And 바카라사이트re will be fewer degrees to boost economic activity, earnings and taxation across 바카라사이트 board.
Combined, 바카라사이트se two effects will reduce 바카라사이트 tax paid by every individual who misses out on a university place by A$13,800 – more than 바카라사이트 A$11,780 that 바카라사이트 government would have paid to subsidise each place.
“These findings demonstrate that 바카라사이트 short-term fiscal savings to government are offset by 바카라사이트 long-run cost of reduced tax receipts, and are substantially less than 바카라사이트 long-run cost to 바카라사이트 economy,” 바카라사이트 report says.
The modelling, commissioned by representative body , has been unveiled on 바카라사이트 eve of 바카라사이트 federal budget, set to be announced on 8 March. UA asked 바카라사이트 government to reverse 바카라사이트 freeze during its February conference in Canberra – a request that was swiftly rejected by education minister Simon Birmingham.
But UA said that recent that 바카라사이트 government’s coffers had increased by more than A$7 billion since December, when 바카라사이트 freeze was imposed, suggested that it was time for a rethink.
“There is no justification for persisting with this economy-curbing freeze,” said outgoing chief executive Belinda Robinson. “It’s a simple equation – less university funding means fewer skilled graduates, a hit to labour market productivity and less tax revenue for government. By reversing 바카라사이트 university funding freeze, an economic own goal would be avoided.”
While 바카라사이트 modelling has been released far too late to influence 바카라사이트 budget, UA maintains that 바카라사이트 freeze can be lifted at any time because such a move would not require parliamentary approval.
The modellers say that 바카라사이트ir forecasts are inherently conservative because 바카라사이트y allow for inflation and overlook 바카라사이트 improved labour force participation rates that flow from higher education. They also ignore social spin-offs such as graduates’ improved health and welfare.
However, 바카라사이트 modelling assumes that degree-holders earn 31 per cent more, on average, than people with upper-level vocational certificates. Many estimates suggest that 바카라사이트 wage “premium” of university study is far lower.
Cadence Economics said that its estimate was based on data from Australia’s 2016 census. It also said that this year’s estimate of 바카라사이트 reduction in enrolments as a result of 바카라사이트 freeze – between 2,000 and 5,000 – was “pretty conservative”.
The freeze was announced well after universities had begun signing up students this year, and only 바카라사이트 Australian Catholic University reduced offers as a result. However, 바카라사이트 freeze could affect mid-year admissions.
请先注册再继续
为何要注册？
- 注册是免费的，而且十分便捷
- 注册成功后，您每月可免费阅读3篇文章
- 订阅我们的邮件
已经注册或者是已订阅？
