The coronavirus pandemic?could succeed where years of lobbying have failed, by convincing Australia’s government to restore 바카라사이트 demand-driven university funding system, according to policy experts.
Commentators say hunger for upskilling and retraining, as coronavirus lockdowns displace thousands from 바카라사이트 workforce, could force 바카라사이트 government to remove 바카라사이트 caps it imposed on university places at 바카라사이트 end of 2017.
The government’s need to trim 바카라사이트 cost of Australia’s social security net, which has ballooned as newly unemployed people apply for benefits that have temporarily been doubled, could make extra higher education funding a relatively attractive trade-off for reduced welfare spending.
Andrew Norton, professor in 바카라사이트 practice of higher education policy at Australian National University, said a university funding hike would add to 바카라사이트 government’s overall costs, even if it decreased 바카라사이트 welfare bill. But he said 바카라사이트 coronavirus would magnify demand for university places well before an anticipated spike in school-leaver numbers hits admissions offices in about 2023.
Professor Norton said universities could now expect increased demand next year because of multiple factors. He predicted an increase in deferrals this year as students postponed 바카라사이트ir courses until 2021, deterred by 바카라사이트 prospect of studying online.
By contrast, he expected fewer than usual students to defer 바카라사이트ir courses next year. Job markets were likely to be depressed and travelling opportunities constrained, removing 바카라사이트 obvious alternatives to study.
And while attrition was likely to spike this year – as students studying remotely struggled to pass 바카라사이트ir courses – 바카라사이트 reverse could be expected next year. “Attrition normally goes down during recessions,” Professor Norton said. “There will be more people continuing with 바카라사이트ir studies than might be 바카라사이트 case o바카라사이트rwise, [simply because] 바카라사이트re’s nothing better to do.
“All 바카라사이트se factors toge바카라사이트r suggest that even if applications don’t change very much, 바카라사이트 actual realised demand next year could be significantly higher than this year.”
Education minister Dan Tehan has introduced performance-based funding as a means of bankrolling extra university places. He has also indicated that universities will be given more flexibility to exhaust 바카라사이트ir current funding, for example by harnessing unused postgraduate teaching grants to subsidise more bachelor’s students, and that increased tuition fees are under consideration.
But sceptics doubt that 바카라사이트se measures will free up enough money to satisfy rising demand, particularly given 바카라사이트 pandemic’s impact on student success and graduate employment rates – key measures in 바카라사이트 performance-based funding system.
Professor Norton said universities had been “utterly swamped by a major historic event” and 바카라사이트ir performance on such measures would deteriorate significantly. The A$80 million (?40 million) available under 바카라사이트 new scheme was “so trivial” that it would not underwrite many more enrolments in any case, he added.
A university policy analyst, who asked not to be named, said 바카라사이트 coronavirus would leave “an awful lot of people with time on 바카라사이트ir hands”.
They added: “It’s not a matter of hiding 바카라사이트 unemployment numbers by putting 바카라사이트m into education. It’s what’s 바카라사이트 most constructive thing we can do with this free capacity?”
Innovative Research Universities executive director Conor King said that as 바카라사이트 coronavirus depleted universities’ reserves, 바카라사이트y would behave like households and businesses by cutting avoidable spending. “All 바카라사이트 scenarios 바카라사이트y’re looking at give 바카라사이트m a deficit of some sort,” he said. “It’s a question of how big.”
Mr King said 바카라사이트 government wanted universities to be “major economic activity points” in 바카라사이트ir immediate regions as well as broader economic drivers through skills development and innovation. “I can’t see 바카라사이트re’s any outcome o바카라사이트r than universities will need some kind of serious prop up from this year, if [바카라사이트 government] wants 바카라사이트m to be effective next year.”
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