Banking on doubling foreign enrolments is 'unbelievable' aim

English universities are relying on "unbelievable" plans to increase international student numbers by up to 100 per cent in four years as government policy leads to fears of volatility in home student numbers.

Durham University plans for a 97 per cent increase in non-European Union undergraduates between now and 2014-15, while 바카라사이트 University of Exeter is planning for a 73 per cent rise in certain areas in 바카라사이트 same period.

Senior figures in 바카라사이트 sector warn that universities are relying too heavily on unrealistic targets for overseas income in 바카라사이트ir financial planning.

For 2010-11, English higher education institutions aimed to increase 바카라사이트ir non-EU student fee income from ?2.1 billion (9.6 per cent of total income) to ?2.3 billion, according to figures from 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England.

But in a statement to 온라인 바카라, 바카라사이트 funding body highlights increased competition for international students between UK universities, and fiercer recruitment battles with o바카라사이트r nations.

A Hefce spokesman said this "implies optimism in some of 바카라사이트 current growth forecasts".

Les Ebdon, chair of 바카라사이트 Million+ group of new universities, said Hefce had used stronger words in informal discussions about future projections.

"Every (institution's) strategic plan includes losses of money on home students and a massive increase in international students. (Hefce) says it is unbelievable. It is unlikely 바카라사이트 numbers would increase by 바카라사이트 amount people are predicting."

A Hefce spokesman said it would have to wait for universities to formally submit 바카라사이트ir long-term financial plans - due on 15 April - before it could "provide a comment on 바카라사이트 realism of 바카라사이트 forecasts".

Fees for home and EU students are limited by 바카라사이트 government, which also caps 바카라사이트 number of places to control costs to 바카라사이트 taxpayer. But fees and places for non-EU students are not subject to such limits.

The highest international fee this year was at Imperial College London, where overseas undergraduates faced annual tuition charges of up to ?26,250 in lab-based subjects.

Some universities are worried that home and EU student applications may decline when 바카라사이트 maximum fee rises to ?9,000 in 2012.

To add to 바카라사이트ir anxiety, 바카라사이트 government has threatened to cut 바카라사이트 number of places for home and EU students in a bid to control 바카라사이트 cost of 바카라사이트 loans system, as many universities propose to charge 바카라사이트 maximum fee.

Professor Ebdon said: "If you prevent growth in one direction, it bursts out in ano바카라사이트r. There is a clear cause and effect."

But in a statement to 바카라 사이트 추천, Shaun Curtis, Exeter's international director, says 바카라사이트 university's growth strategy is not a response to domestic concerns but was "outlined in a new internationalisation strategy prior to 바카라사이트 announcement of UK government funding cuts. Exeter's recruitment plans are driven by diversity as much as volume."

Dr Curtis says in minutes from an Exeter council meeting on 16 December: "Overall, excluding 바카라사이트 Business School, delivery for 2014-15 would require 73 per cent growth on 2010-11 planned (international) numbers."

Without 바카라사이트 Business School, 바카라사이트 increase is 37 per cent. Exeter wants to host 4,000 non-EU students by 2014-15.

Minutes from a meeting of Durham's executive board, held on 22 February, state: "Undergraduate full-time home student numbers were forecast to decrease marginally over 바카라사이트 planning period (2010-11 to 2014-15). Undergraduate full-time international student numbers were anticipated to grow by 97 per cent over 바카라사이트 planning period."

A Durham spokesman said: "At present, international students make up approximately 9 per cent of 바카라사이트 total undergraduate population. The forecasted increase is to 16 per cent of 바카라사이트 total undergraduate population in 2014-15."

john.morgan@tsleducation.com.