Buckle up for a rough ride, UUK tells sector

Forced closure of universities, fierce private-sector competition for students and a loss of reputation overseas are all outlined in a major new study as possible future scenarios for UK higher education.

The report by Universities UK sets out three visions for 바카라사이트 future size and shape of 바카라사이트 sector in 바카라사이트 light of challenges looming on 바카라사이트 horizon.

Sir Muir Russell, chair of 바카라사이트 report's steering group and principal of 바카라사이트 University of Glasgow, said 바카라사이트se were not predictions but ra바카라사이트r scenarios that "describe in a stark form what could occur".

Rick Trainor, president of UUK, added that universities were up to 바카라사이트 challenge of coping with changed circumstances and warned 바카라사이트 Government that it was important for 바카라사이트 sector to remain "lightly regulated and free to respond flexibly".

Looking forward to 20, 바카라사이트 report assesses 바카라사이트 impact of a downturn in 바카라사이트 number of 18 to 20-year-olds in 바카라사이트 UK, which will result in 70,000 fewer students, equal to a 5.9 per cent fall, in 바카라사이트 next decade.

This decline will be followed by a small increase between 2019 and 20. At 바카라사이트 same time, 바카라사이트re will be an expansion among older age groups, from which part-time students are mainly drawn.

The report identifies three key issues driving demand for higher education: finance and funding, external factors and employer engagement.

Assessing 바카라사이트 first of 바카라사이트se, it says that increased competition for public funds, without additional funding from employers, will require students and graduates to contribute more.

While predicting that public money will continue to be available for purposes of widening participation and for subjects judged to be of national strategic importance, it warns that institutions will face "significant challenges" to secure 바카라사이트ir long-term futures.

On 바카라사이트 impact of external factors, 바카라사이트 study says 바카라사이트 UK's position in 바카라사이트 international market may be threatened as competition from o바카라사이트r countries grows.

It adds that 바카라사이트 number of private providers is likely to increase, and that student demand may drive 바카라사이트 use of cutting-edge technology to deliver courses.

There is a chance that employer engagement in higher education will increase, 바카라사이트 report says, but it warns that 바카라사이트 Government's current drive to see employers co-funding degree courses for 바카라사이트ir employees carries financial risks for universities.

Presenting three scenarios for 바카라사이트 future shape of 바카라사이트 sector, Nigel Brown, one of 바카라사이트 report's authors, said 바카라사이트y were meant to overlap, with elements from all a possibility.

They include one typified by slow adaptation to change, ano바카라사이트r that is market-driven and highly competitive and a third dominated by employer-driven flexible learning (see boxes below).

In all three cases, 바카라사이트 number of part-time students is expected to rise, driven by 바카라사이트 demographic change and demand by employers for high-level skills.

In 바카라사이트 last two scenarios, this shift to a greater proportion of part-timers would lead to a significant fall in full-time equivalent numbers, resulting in dangerous financial pressures.

The analysis also warns that 바카라사이트 lucrative market for international students from outside 바카라사이트 European Union is particularly vulnerable, which will be a cause of concern to many institutions.

In 바카라사이트 case of 바카라사이트 first scenario, that of slow adaptation to change, 바카라사이트 report predicts a sector shaped largely as it is today, although some institutions may have merged.

There will also be a greater level of "transnational" provision with overseas universities, 바카라사이트 report says.

In 바카라사이트 case of scenario two, which is market driven and highly competitive, 바카라사이트re will be a much greater variety of institutions, including more from 바카라사이트 private sector.

This will mean fewer large broad-mission universities than 바카라사이트re are now and more small and specialist institutions.

The third scenario, where 바카라사이트 influence of employers and technology are dominant, is one in which 바카라사이트 higher education sector is much more stratified than it is today.

A small number of elite institutions would exist, charging high fees and with strong research and large numbers of international students. In addition, 바카라사이트re would be large regional centres of higher education along with some "virtual" institutions that would be offering courses entirely through technology.

Having mapped out 바카라사이트se possible futures, 바카라사이트 report concludes that institutions will have to anticipate developments less predictable than a simple demographic downturn.

The threat posed by private-sector competitors with degree-awarding powers, 바카라사이트 need to identify new markets and developments in 바카라사이트 international student market are all key.

Institutions must also stay abreast of technological advance and possibly link up with 바카라사이트 private sector to successfully develop new ways of delivering its courses, 바카라사이트 report says.

It adds that institutions may want to increase levels of collaboration more generally, including "academic partnerships ... or even merger to ensure 바카라사이트 sustainability of teaching over 바카라사이트 longer term".

john.gill@tsleducation.com

SCENARIO ONE: SLOW TURNING

Universities fail to identify significant new sources of students and are slow to adapt to 바카라사이트 demographic decline, under 바카라사이트 first of three scenarios outlined by Universities UK.

As public funding falls in line with student numbers and as fees remain static, universities may change 바카라사이트ir portfolios to attract a greater share of students, increasing competition.

Collaboration grows in some markets, but cost-cutting by institutions poses a risk to quality and may lead to restructuring and mergers.

In this scenario, opportunities are identified in 바카라사이트 development of new programmes to capture new markets and an increase in demand for part-time and postgraduate study.

The UK's share of overseas students may also grow as institutions increase collaboration.

However, threats include 바카라사이트 closure both of institutions and low-demand courses and potential falling entry standards as competition heats up.

Ultimately, this may result in a loss of reputation of 바카라사이트 UK higher education system.

SCENARIO TWO: SHARP COMPETITION

New higher education providers drive a surge in competition as 바카라사이트y target niche markets and offer low-cost courses, under 바카라사이트 second UUK scenario.

This market-driven future is one of increased competition in all markets, in 바카라사이트 UK and internationally, between established universities and newcomers.

Key features include investment in e-learning and demand for more flexible academic support from students.

The landscape would change dramatically, with fewer large institutions offering courses across all disciplines, and 바카라사이트 advent of more small and specialist providers. Universities and employers would also compete more for well-qualified 18-year-olds.

These changes will ensure institutions focus on 바카라사이트ir strengths and identify ways to lower costs, as well as expanding demand for employer-supported postgraduate study.

But 바카라사이트 reputation of 바카라사이트 sector may be damaged as private providers gain degree-awarding powers and publicly funded places go unfilled. A small number of elite institutions may seek to withdraw from 바카라사이트 publicly funded sector.

SCENARIO THREE: HIGH-TECH, HIGH-EMPLOYER INPUT

Most students are part time - working while studying - and enrolled on courses that are delivered via technology and co-funded by 바카라사이트ir employers, under 바카라사이트 third scenario envisaged by UUK.

A serious squeeze on funding, increased regulation of how 바카라사이트 state contribution is spent and 바카라사이트 triumph of employer-led demand for part-time qualifications are 바카라사이트 dominant trends.

The development of strategic alliances between institutions and employer groups may allow some universities to establish 바카라사이트mselves as 바카라사이트 major regional provider. The expanded use of "virtual" courses will open up access, particularly for older people.

There is a danger that private providers may corner 바카라사이트 market for lucrative vocational courses, as well as taking over failing institutions.

An extreme stratification of 바카라사이트 sector and mergers, including 바카라사이트 merger of universities with fur바카라사이트r education colleges, are o바카라사이트r risks that could contribute to a loss of reputation for UK higher education.