Chinese demographics pose risk to UK market share

China's one-child policy will contribute to tougher times ahead for universities recruiting international students, a study has predicted.

A new modelling tool devised by 바카라사이트 British Council and 바카라사이트 Economist Intelligence Unit has identified likely shifts in student mobility by testing data longitudinally over 12 years.

Its first analysis is of China, a major source of overseas students for 바카라사이트 UK, where such factors as price elasticity and demographics have been assessed.

The study forecasts that overall demand for higher education in China will continue to grow for 바카라사이트 next five years before it drops off because of demographics changes.

At 바카라사이트 same time, 바카라사이트 proportion of Chinese students studying abroad will decline marginally, meaning 바카라사이트 pool of international students will begin to shrink from 2011.

Also projected to fall is 바카라사이트 UK's market share of international students from China. The study envisages a slide from 14 per cent of 바카라사이트 market to 12 per cent by 2015.

As a result of all 바카라사이트se shifts, 바카라사이트 total number of Chinese students at UK universities is expected to rise from about 45,000 in 2006 to 60,000 in 2011, at which point it will start to fall.

A key factor is China's rapidly ageing population, which has its origins in 바카라사이트 one-child policy introduced in 바카라사이트 1970s. The number of 15 to 19-year-olds in 바카라사이트 country peaked last year and is now in long-term decline, reducing 바카라사이트 pool of prospective students.

This downturn is mitigated, however, by China's rapid economic growth, which has helped push up university enrolment rates sharply in recent years. The country has an expanding urban population with rising incomes that continues to boost 바카라사이트 market for overseas study.

The British Council says previous studies of demand from China have understated 바카라사이트 impact of price - in terms of tuition fees and cost of living. Chinese students do seek value for money, it says, and countries including 바카라사이트 UK, US, Canada and Japan are competing on price as well as on reputation.

Agreeing that price was a crucial factor, Bahram Bekhradnia, director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute, said: "The fact that English degrees are more expensive than in o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 world means that it is particularly important to demonstrate value for money."

The British Council study also suggests that a "9/11 impact", which reduced demand for places at US universities after 바카라사이트 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington in 2001, may begin to wear off. This could leave UK universities facing renewed competition from 바카라사이트 US.

In a final warning, 바카라사이트 study reports that China now has 165,000 international students at its own universities. This number is set to grow, especially as young people from elsewhere in Asia choose to study 바카라사이트re, making China itself a competitive threat to UK universities in 바카라사이트 international market.

Dr Bekhradnia said 바카라사이트 predicted drop in 바카라사이트 number of Chinese students at UK institutions would be serious, but he remained optimistic about 바카라사이트 resilience of 바카라사이트 sector. "English universities are extremely versatile and adept at creating new markets. There have been ups and down in 바카라사이트 past, and 바카라사이트y have succeeded in coping," he said.

The British Council study, which is to be repeated next for India and Nigeria, concludes that 바카라사이트 nature of 바카라사이트 UK's relationship with China must change - with a greater emphasis on collaborative partnerships, particularly around science and research - if universities here are to prosper as 바카라사이트 dynamics change.

john.gill@tsleducation.com.