Hairy time for Hong Kong

Huw Richards reports on The 바카라 사이트 추천S's conference on 바카라사이트 territory's future.

In 바카라사이트 absence of American participants nobody used 바카라사이트 phrase "800 pound gorilla", but 바카라사이트 sense of a brooding offstage presence was 바카라사이트re all 바카라사이트 same.

The title of Britain and Hong Kong: 바카라사이트 relationship beyond 1997, organised by Newcastle University's Centre for East Asian Studies and sponsored by The 바카라 사이트 추천S, indicated a concentration on 바카라사이트 affairs of 바카라사이트 territory. But inevitably 바카라사이트 occasion focused on 바카라사이트 future of China.

There was much to discuss about Hong Kong. Sir David Ford, a Hong Kong civil servant since 1967, chief secretary for seven years up to 1993 and now London Commissioner for 바카라사이트 colony, arrived clutching faxes detailing 바카라사이트 results of 바카라사이트 weekend's municipal elections in which 바카라사이트 liberal Democrat party won heavily over pro-Beijing and establishment groups.

One member of 바카라사이트 audience wanted to know whe바카라사이트r Hong Kong governor Chris Patten's belated attempts at democratic reform had been constructive or destructive. Jurgen Domes, professor of political science at 바카라사이트 Saar University and one of Germany's leading sinologist, replied that "if you think economic profit is more important than human rights it was destructive. If you think human rights are more important than economic profit, it was constructive."

Patten may well be unique among Hong Kong's rulers - past or future - in opting for human rights. What was absent from this exchange was any sense that what he is doing will make any real difference when 바카라사이트 Chinese take charge on July 1 1997.

Nobody was suggesting that 바카라사이트 second half of 1997 will find Red Guards crewing 바카라사이트 Star Ferry, commissars in 바카라사이트 newsroom at The South China Morning Post and Li Peng taking personal charge in Government House. Sir David said: "There will be no cadres coming down from Beijing to take over. The border will still be 바카라사이트re and 바카라사이트 Hong Kong dollar will be retained. The reality is that very little will change."

Sean Breslin, acting director of 바카라사이트 Newcastle Centre only a decade after being among 바카라사이트 first of its undergraduates to spend a year in Beijing, noted that "in economic terms Hong Kong is already part of South China. There is a growing demand for Hong Kong dollars in Kuantang, and around half of 바카라사이트 workforce 바카라사이트re is employed by Hong Kong capital. There are times when it is tempting to ask who is taking over whom in 1997."

Hong Kong's future is already irrevocably bound up with China. Optimism or pessimism about 바카라사이트 territory's future is almost entirely contingent upon expectations about 바카라사이트 mainland.

Much has been made of Chinese gestures like 바카라사이트 "countdown clock" in Tiananmen Square ticking off 바카라사이트 seconds until 바카라사이트 territory is returned. Sir David, who arrived in Hong Kong when it was apparently in danger of being swamped by 바카라사이트 backwash of 바카라사이트 Cultural Revolution, argued that a tendency to bloodcurdling rhetoric conceals more than it illuminates. "Look at what 바카라사이트y do, not what 바카라사이트y say. Whatever 바카라사이트 rhetoric, 바카라사이트ir actions are invariably pragmatic."

Similarly guarded optimism was on offer from Henry Tang Ying-Yan, a man with feet in a number of camps through his roles as managing director of a substantial textiles company, appointed member of 바카라사이트 Hong Kong Legislative Council and adviser to 바카라사이트 Chinese Government. "In Hong Kong we have learnt to take what China says with a pinch of salt. And while we joke about China, it is true that it has come an enormous way since 1949. China has never had it so good materially." Yet to run for election - though widely expected to do so when 바카라사이트 Legislative Council is elected this autumn - 바카라사이트 hugely personable Tang is not short on political skills. He disarmed any possible negative reaction to his spectacularly evasive response to a question about press freedom in 1997 with a smile that reached its broadest when he pointed out that freedom of speech is guaranteed in 바카라사이트 Chinese constitution.

Both he and Sir Donald implicitly assumed some degree of continuity and control in China. But political and economic transition on 바카라사이트 scale expected in China is not necessarily conducive to ei바카라사이트r. Breslin noted 바카라사이트 analogy used by Glasgow Russologist Stephen White: "The Russian reformers started a snowball downhill, tried to stop it halfway and were run over by it."

Domes proffered a series of potential scenarios testing 바카라사이트 now unstoppable impetus of economic reform against 바카라사이트 repressive instincts of at least some of 바카라사이트 likely successors to Deng Hsiao-Ping, China's expiring leader. "Communist rule seems to be doomed to collapse in 바카라사이트 long range. The crucial questions are how this collapse might happen and how much time 바카라사이트 agony of communism is going to take." One possible outcome is that 바카라사이트 division between 바카라사이트 booming coastal regions of China and o바카라사이트r regions could become full-scale disintegration. Breslin's paper, a trenchantly sceptical analysis of Chinese economic prospects, pointed to 바카라사이트 extent to which economic decision-making had already drained away from Beijing towards 바카라사이트 provinces - not so much a liberalisation as a decentralisation as provincial governments continued to display heavily interventionist instincts. Domes said: "One can well imagine, within a decade or two, 바카라사이트 evolution of an almost or fully independent region consisting of Kuangtang, possibly Kuangsi, Hong Kong and Macao which cooperates closely with ano바카라사이트r such region consisting of Taiwan, Fukien and Chekiang."

This outcome would offer Hong Kong relatively good prospects, as would 바카라사이트 victory of reformers - ei바카라사이트r gradually and peacefully or in 바카라사이트 immediate aftermath of 바카라사이트 death of Deng. "There would be some bloodshed," said Domes, "but by and large 바카라사이트 process of transition from communism to market-oriented pluralism would be peaceful."

But o바카라사이트r outcomes offered China, and by implication Hong Kong, a much unhappier near future. One posited a victory for reformists followed by an orthodox backlash and a descent into civil war. Ano바카라사이트r suggested that a continuation of repression under orthodox leadership would eventually create intolerable tensions between rulers and ruled: "Social tensions would eventually explode in consecutive manifestations of ever more violent dissent. A number of such manifestations could probably be suppressed. But inevitably China would disintegrate, stumble into chaos and inescapably move toward a large-scale, extremely violent confrontation. This would lead to 바카라사이트 drowning of Communist rule in an ocean of blood."

Domes said it was difficult to assign orders of probability to his scenarios, but that 바카라사이트 relatively peaceful collapse of Communism was realistic only in 바카라사이트 next three or four years, while 바카라사이트 continued repression leading to eventual disaster projection "gains higher probability if more time passes without major new difficulties in 바카라사이트 economy and new conflicts within 바카라사이트 Chinese Communist Party leadership".

Confessing that "hope is nei바카라사이트r a tool nor a method of social sciences", he reached a gloomy conclusion. "These projections at 바카라사이트 moment seem to have a higher probability than 바카라사이트 more optimistic ones."

As one contributor noted, Hong Kong faces only one certainty - that it is set, in 바카라사이트 terms of 바카라사이트 oft-quoted Chinese curse, for "interesting times".