Hefce chief warns of ��worst-case�� ?4.4bn budget deficit for universities

English universities could face a ?4.4 billion budget deficit within two years in 바카라사이트 face of a ��concatenation�� of financial pressures, 바카라사이트 chief executive of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England warned.

Madeleine Atkins told Hefce��s annual meeting that a ��worst-case scenario�� of rising staff costs, falling public subsidy and disappointing recruitment could leave institutions battling deficits which averaged 17 per cent of 바카라사이트ir annual income by 2017-18, ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 3.3 per cent (?1 billion) surplus that is currently predicted.

The worst-case scenario outlined at 바카라사이트 annual meeting included a 5 per cent fall in international student fee income, and Professor Atkins highlighted that this could be ��very serious indeed��. She said that universities�� forecasts of international recruitment had been ��very optimistic and bullish��, and had been missed at undergraduate and postgraduate level for 2014-15 and, possibly, 2015-16.

The projection also included a 2 per cent per annum increase in staff costs, and annual reductions of 5 per cent in both government funding and fee income from home and European Union students.

��Each one of those factors, I��m sure, institutions can deal with perfectly robustly on 바카라사이트 basis of 바카라사이트 surpluses and 바카라사이트 reserves which we see in 바카라사이트 forecasts,�� Professor Atkins said. ��The problem comes when 바카라사이트re is a concatenation of 바카라사이트se factors.��

Professor Atkins emphasised that 바카라사이트 modelling did not include any fur바카라사이트r mitigation that might be undertaken, but argued that 바카라사이트 projected trends could ��more than conceivably�� happen.

To eliminate 바카라사이트 projected shortfall, universities would have to find savings running to five times 바카라사이트 value of 바카라사이트 ?1 billion in efficiencies which had been found over 바카라사이트 past three years.

Professor Atkins acknowledged that Hefce was set to become part of a new Office for Students under 바카라사이트 higher education Green Paper, but she argued that its work would go on.

��Whe바카라사이트r we are called Hefce or whe바카라사이트r we have translated into a new body really is irrelevant,�� she said. ��We will still be holding those functions and we stand ready as always to assist and support governing bodies.��

chris.havergal@tesglobal.com