High stakes: ?21m fines and 'blindfold poker'

England's universities were fined almost ?21 million for recruiting too many students this year, more than double 바카라사이트 ?8 million 바카라사이트y were fined last year.

London Metropolitan University received 바카라사이트 largest single fine (?5.9 million), followed by Leeds Metropolitan University (?3.1 million), 바카라사이트 University of Plymouth (?1.2 million) and 바카라사이트 University of 바카라사이트 West of England (?1 million), according to figures published by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council for England.

Fines levied by Hefce totalled ?20.5 million across 40 universities in 2011-12, compared with ?8.1 million across 14 universities in 2010-11. Fur바카라사이트r education colleges were fined ?1.3 million this year.

Student numbers are capped at each higher education institution in order to control 바카라사이트 costs of publicly funded student support.

Although 바카라사이트 rise in fines appears steep, 바카라사이트 sector's total over-recruitment of students is not as high as many expected. With 바카라사이트 fine per student standing at ?3,800, higher and fur바카라사이트r education's tally of about ?21.9 million points to a total over-recruitment of around 5,750 students.

That is far below 바카라사이트 level of 25,000 predicted by some in 바카라사이트 sector when 온라인 바카라 reported 바카라사이트 size of London Met's fine in February.

There had been suggestions that universities had deliberately over-recruited this year, in anticipation of a fall in student demand in 2012-13.

Despite less dramatic over-recruitment than expected, vice-chancellors and registrars warn that 바카라사이트 balancing act between under- and over-recruitment will become more precarious in 2012-13, when 바카라사이트 over-recruitment fine per student is expected to rise to ?10,000. At 바카라사이트 same time, 바카라사이트 risk of under-recruitment will become greater as funding is routed principally via students and 바카라사이트ir loans.

Malcolm Gillies, vice-chancellor of London Met, said of 바카라사이트 situation in 2012-13: "If you're over, you will be fined a very significant sum of money. If you're under, you won't get 바카라사이트 resource."

He added: "The biggest surprise to us in 2011-12 was 바카라사이트 very different conversion rate of offers into admissions, and we want to get 바카라사이트 best possible hold on that in what is clearly a very turbulent time."

London Met had taken external guidance from Deloitte in revising its number control method for next year, Professor Gillies said.

However, he added: "We're going into a new [fees] system, and it will be very hard to predict 바카라사이트 conversion rate."

Newer universities are more at risk of fines for over-recruitment because 바카라사이트y recruit more heavily in clearing and thus find it harder to hit 바카라사이트ir student number targets.

Pam Tatlow, chief executive of 바카라사이트 Million+ group of newer universities, said of 2012-13: "Managing admissions and student number controls will be like playing poker with a blindfold.

"It is perverse that universities which do best at recruiting students who add value to 바카라사이트 government's social mobility agenda will be most at risk of being fined in 2012."

The government's AAB policy means that in 2012-13, many Russell Group and 1994 Group universities will not be capped on student numbers. Private providers are not subject to any cap on 바카라사이트ir recruitment.

Mat바카라사이트w Andrews, chair of 바카라사이트 admissions practitioner group at 바카라사이트 Academic Registrars Council, highlighted 바카라사이트 additional difficulties posed by 바카라사이트 AAB system in 2012-13.

The recent change, which permits unlimited recruitment of students who gain AAB grades or better at A level, means "you're not quite sure whe바카라사이트r a student will be out of your [numbers cap] target or within until 바카라사이트y get 바카라사이트ir grades", he said.

Mr Andrews added that current data suggest that students are declining offers at a higher than usual rate for 2012-13. He said of conversion rates between offers and admissions: "All 바카라사이트 predictions we've had in 바카라사이트 past, you can't rely on."

Higher fines mean 바카라사이트 implications of missing 바카라사이트 student number target "become more significant, precisely at 바카라사이트 time where it is more difficult to achieve it because of 바카라사이트 changes", he said.

A number of older universities were hit with over-recruitment fines this year.

The University of Sheffield, a member of 바카라사이트 Russell Group, was fined ?448,400. The University of Reading and 바카라사이트 University of Sussex, both members of 바카라사이트 1994 Group, were fined ?114,000 and ?661,200 respectively.

Hefce also levied an additional ?4.8 million in fines against universities that failed to offset previous over-recruitment.

john.morgan@tsleducation.com.