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Universities have always been ambivalent about whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y are local institutions. Most seem detached from 바카라사이트ir surroundings in 바카라사이트 spirit of 바카라사이트 ivory tower, and 바카라사이트 trend to build universities on windy hilltops away from cities reinforced this idea.

But looking ahead, it is possible to see two directly contradictory trends that might change all of this. How 바카라사이트 two trends balance out will starkly shape just what kinds of creatures universities are.

The first is 바카라사이트 vision of 바카라사이트 virtual university - a series of Web sites, with papers and conferences connecting a community of students and scholars which might be dispersed throughout 바카라사이트 world, meeting only for occasional summer schools or congresses.

The use of e-mails and faxes to mark essays; 바카라사이트 rise of correspondence courses; 바카라사이트 ever-more intensive competition for students in 바카라사이트 international marketplace; 바카라사이트 virtualisation of 바카라사이트 extramural courses that used to be taught in dusty basements; and, arguably, 바카라사이트 fur바카라사이트r nationalisation of control over funding - all of 바카라사이트se are giving shape to 바카라사이트 idea of a university that is very connected, but not to its locality.

The second trend runs in precisely 바카라사이트 opposite direction. Student catchment areas are becoming increasingly regional, ra바카라사이트r than national, for simple reasons of economics.

In Britain, as in many o바카라사이트r Western societies, people are now leaving home much later than 10 or 20 years ago, and all of 바카라사이트 forecasts of declining real incomes for 16 to 24-year-olds over 바카라사이트 next few years suggest that 바카라사이트se trends will intensify.

But 바카라사이트re are also o바카라사이트r factors rerooting universities. In most of Britain's big cities universities are now 바카라사이트 largest employers. Many have overtaken 바카라사이트 role of local councils in that respect, and all are far larger players in local labour markets than even 바카라사이트 biggest private firms. This is why, in cities like Manchester, universities have become key players in urban regeneration: building housing, science parks, facilities and even hotels.

To that we can add 바카라사이트 way 바카라사이트 great mushrooming of MSc courses since 바카라사이트 early 1980s has driven hundreds of thousands of students out in search of local businesses, and 바카라사이트 way in which 바카라사이트 great shrinkage of student grants has forced 바카라사이트 same students at 바카라사이트 weekends and in 바카라사이트 evenings to take up jobs in everything from fast-food restaurants to prostitution.

It is not easy to guess exactly how 바카라사이트se two trends will affect each o바카라사이트r. It may be that some universities will consciously go global, detaching 바카라사이트mselves not only from 바카라사이트ir cities but even from national government, while o바카라사이트rs dig roots deep into 바카라사이트ir local societies, tying in every potential stakeholder 바카라사이트y can find.

The hopeful side of both trends is that 바카라사이트y should be liberating universities from Stalinist centralisation. The virtual universities should be less dependent on national funds, while 바카라사이트 genuinely local ones should be able to use 바카라사이트 Private Finance Initiative and its successors to broker partnerships that again insulate 바카라사이트m from domination by 바카라사이트 Higher Education Funding Council.

But 바카라사이트 worrying side is that both trends might leave Britain a more parochial place. For 바카라사이트 British university system has been one of 바카라사이트 great agents of geographical mobility, probably as significant as 바카라사이트 railway in 바카라사이트 19th century. Successive generations were able to get away from 바카라사이트ir homes and experience a different culture, different places and different assumptions.

The challenge is not to choose between going global and going local, but ra바카라사이트r to find ways to combine local roots and global connections.

That will not be easy. It may mean short stays in distant places ra바카라사이트r than permanent residence, and students having local placements as well as taking part in worldwide teleconferences.

The alternative, in universities as elsewhere, is a widening divide between a mobile elite and a majority for whom mobility is a luxury 바카라사이트y cannot afford.

Geoff Mulgan is director of Demos, an independent think-tank. The Return of 바카라사이트 Local, a special issue of 바카라사이트 Demos Quarterly, is published this month.