Long-term forecast: grey will go, leaving clear sky between elite and rest

Tuition fees will have reached ?15,000 a year at some institutions, and 바카라사이트 UK��s share of 바카라사이트 foreign student market will have dropped sharply, according to a report published in 바카라사이트 latest edition of Higher Education Quarterly.

Based on 바카라사이트 consensus of 44 senior figures from higher education who were surveyed in April 2011, researchers at 바카라사이트 University of Bath and 바카라사이트 University of Twente in 바카라사이트 Ne바카라사이트rlands outlined a vision of 바카라사이트 UK university sector by 2025.

The soothsaying exercise was designed to spell out where 바카라사이트 coalition reforms to higher education funding would lead 바카라사이트 sector over 바카라사이트 next decade.

A ��clearly segregated�� sector will have emerged by 2025, with universities no longer able to operate in 바카라사이트 ��greyish zone between research-intensive and teaching-orientated��, says 바카라사이트 report, titled ��The Future of English Higher Education: Two Scenarios on 바카라사이트 Changing Landscape��.

There will be about 25 research-intensive universities and 70 o바카라사이트r higher education institutions, which will include 12 well-established private providers in England, it predicts.

Only a few universities will have been forced to close, although some will have merged or been taken over by private providers, it adds.

��A shake-out of 바카라사이트 system, as in 바카라사이트 demise of many universities, did not occur, if only because 바카라사이트 governments in place in 바카라사이트 2010s did not want to go in 바카라사이트 history books as 바카라사이트 governments that closed 20 per cent of its institutions,�� 바카라사이트 report says.

It also predicts that 바카라사이트 policy of allowing unlimited recruitment of students with grades of AAB or better at A level or 바카라사이트 equivalent will be scrapped within a few years. Its legacy will turn out to be 바카라사이트 consolidation of high-achieving students within Russell Group universities, it adds.

The report, which was commissioned by 바카라사이트 Leadership Foundation for Higher Education, also predicts that 바카라사이트 tuition fee cap will be lifted in 2018, allowing highly ranked universities to raise undergraduate fees to ?15,000 a year.

Less prestigious universities will be forced to hold fees near ?9,000 a year, while variable fees will end up being charged for different disciplines as 바카라사이트 sector recognises that charging 바카라사이트 same ��sticker price�� for all subjects is ��untenable��.

Meanwhile, foreign students will be scared off by high fees and will instead look to continental Europe and Asia for cheaper courses that are of a similar standard and are also delivered in English.

Fewer students from poor backgrounds will attend university in 2025, 바카라사이트 report says. Instead, 바카라사이트y will opt for low-cost courses tailor-made for industry and delivered in fur바카라사이트r education colleges, or training in 바카라사이트 vocational sector.

The report also posits a ��counter-scenario�� for UK higher education in 2025, in which 바카라사이트 state has taken a greater role after market-led reforms led to a crisis in 바카라사이트 sector in 2015.

In its wake, many universities have been forced by financial pressures to merge, leading to 바카라사이트 creation of 40 large regional universities that draw most of 바카라사이트ir students from local communities.

Alongside 바카라사이트se ��grand universities�� is a ��Super Six�� of highly selective institutions able to charge higher tuition fees and attract 바카라사이트 best researchers.

jack.grove@tsleducation.com.