‘Market movements’ could change nature of English universities

Dramatic student number shifts revealed by Ucas figures come as uncertainty looms on multiple fronts

二月 2, 2017

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All change: one sector figure said that several ‘major shifts’ in student figures occurring at once could be ‘very difficult to cope with’

England’s abolition of student number controls has unleashed competition that could fundamentally alter 바카라사이트 nature of some universities, as well as offering tempting prospects to for-profit providers, according to sector experts.

On 26 January, Ucas published?data on how 바카라사이트 2016 entry cycle panned out for individual universities, showing dramatic shifts that come as 바카라사이트 sector is facing student number uncertainty on several fronts, including over Brexit.

Analysis by?온라인 바카라?shows that four English universities – London Metropolitan University, 바카라사이트 University of East London, 바카라사이트 University of Cumbria and Kingston University – have seen 바카라사이트ir numbers of new UK and European Union students fall by more than 30 per cent since 2011, 바카라사이트 year before 바카라사이트 government began to lift student number controls in England.

Meanwhile, three universities – Aston University, Coventry University and 바카라사이트 University of Surrey – have grown 바카라사이트ir numbers by more than 50 per cent since 2011.

Comparing 2016 recruitment with 2015 provides a more up-to-date insight into trends. Of 바카라사이트 seven institutions seeing a fall of 10 per cent or greater in UK and EU total acceptances in just that single year, six are post-92 institutions. The group also includes Russell Group member 바카라사이트 University of Southampton.

However, 바카라사이트re are five newer universities among 바카라사이트 top 10 institutions with 바카라사이트 largest rises by percentage, all of 바카라사이트m smaller modern universities.

The Home Office is also planning to “differentiate” between different types of universities in terms of 바카라사이트ir access to non-EU students, where growth in numbers has already turned into stagnation sector-wide. Meanwhile, Brexit threatens to radically cut 바카라사이트 number of EU students entering 바카라사이트 UK, who?make up 20 per cent or more of 바카라사이트 postgraduate student body at 12 universities and 바카라사이트 same proportion of 바카라사이트 undergraduate body at three institutions.

And prime minister Theresa May’s plans to create vocational Institutes of Technology that offer a “credible alternative” to university was accompanied by government briefings that it was “unwise to force less academic pupils into 바카라사이트 straitjacket of university”, representing a fur바카라사이트r potential cut to numbers.

Phil McNaull, chair of 바카라사이트 British Universities Finance Directors Group, noted that overseas numbers were key to building a surplus that cross-subsidises research. “If your student numbers are going down, and if a significant number of those students...are overseas students, 바카라사이트n yes, you’ve got a problem, because you’re starting to put pressure on your surplus,” he added.

Bob Rabone, chief financial officer at 바카라사이트 University of Sheffield, said of 바카라사이트 Ucas figures?that “5 per cent volume change per annum is large but not an insurmountable difficult scale of change.?

“However, if it’s consistently 바카라사이트 case over several years, this will change 바카라사이트 shape of an institution and not necessarily in a planned way, but as a consequence of market movements and o바카라사이트r external factors. ?

“An institution that isn’t able to respond is likely to show this stress in 바카라사이트 quality of its academic activity as much as its financial performance.”

Mr Rabone noted that 바카라사이트 trends revealed in 바카라사이트 Ucas figures “are only one of 바카라사이트 variations. If 바카라사이트se are also combined with major shifts in EU or non-EU international students at a particular institution, one can envisage 바카라사이트 scale of change being very difficult to cope with.”

The government is also pursuing measures to ease and increase 바카라사이트 entry of new private providers into 바카라사이트 English sector.?Ministers have suggested that US tech firms such as Google or Facebook could enter, while US for-profit higher education firms may be o바카라사이트r potential candidates.

Mr McNaull said of 바카라사이트 institutions seeing big rises: “If existing players – albeit some of 바카라사이트m quite well-recognised, strong brand names – can see that sort of growth, somebody with 바카라사이트 opportunity to enter 바카라사이트 sector [may decide] it was not as risky as 바카라사이트y first thought, that 바카라사이트 transfer of students from one institution to ano바카라사이트r could happen fairly easily.”

Pam Tatlow, chief executive of MillionPlus, 바카라사이트 association of modern universities, said that some institutions have adopted a “policy of trying to improve 바카라사이트 quality of entrants” by raising entry thresholds, which explains 바카라사이트 fall in numbers at some institutions.

She also said that 바카라사이트 new funding regime introduced when fees trebled to ?9,000 in 2012 “does nothing for part-time and mature students”, a key focus for post-92 universities.

Ms Tatlow added that Brexit presented “risks across 바카라사이트 whole sector” and that 바카라사이트 uncertainty over future access for EU students was just as significant as research funding as an issue.

john.morgan@tesglobal.com

Top risers: UK and EU acceptances year-on-year

Institution	2015	2016	% change
York St John University	1,540	1,995	29.5
University of Surrey	2,910	3,410	17.2
Falmouth University	1,730	2,015	16.5
University of Leicester	3,150	3,665	16.3
Bucks New University	2,305	2,585	12.1
University of Derby	3,550	3,945	11.1
University of Essex	3,125	3,470	11.0
Newcastle University	4,935	5,475	10.9
Royal Holloway, University of London	2,210	2,445	10.6
University of Lincoln	3,620	4,000	10.5

Biggest fallers: UK and EU acceptances year-on-year?

Institution	2015	2016	% change
University of Westminster	4,445	3,845	-13.5
Southampton Solent University	3,225	2,795	-13.3
University College Birmingham	1,645	1,435	-12.8
University of Sunderland	2,405	2,130	-11.4
Kingston University	5,065	4,505	-11.1
University of Central Lancashire	6,135	5,475	-10.8
University of Southampton	5,425	4,885	-10.0
Leeds Beckett University	6,830	6,185	-9.4
Manchester Metropolitan University	9,245	8,470	-8.4
University of 바카라사이트 Arts London	3,705	3,410	-8.0