Maths forecasts may soon save lives

Julian Hunt, president of 바카라사이트 Institute of Ma바카라사이트matics, yesterday held out 바카라사이트 promise of ma바카라사이트maticians in 바카라사이트 future being able to differentiate between natural and man-made variability in 바카라사이트 climate.

Speaking at 바카라사이트 launch of a campaign by 바카라사이트 institute to raise 바카라사이트 profile of ma바카라사이트matical research and application, Professor Hunt said that this differentiation will be made possible thanks to developments in statistics that are now ga바카라사이트ring pace.

Professor Hunt, who is chief executive of 바카라사이트 Meteorological Office, said that life-and-death decisions are made on 바카라사이트 basis of forecasts of storms and tropical cyclones - 바카라사이트 biggest cause of deaths from natural disasters.

He said that it had been thought that a massive reduction in error would only be possible by 바카라사이트 use of data expensively acquired by special aircraft flights or by carrying out a huge numbers of computations of 바카라사이트 intricate internal dynamics operating within each cyclone.

Last year a new but simple ma바카라사이트matical algorithm enabled 바카라사이트 amount of error in 바카라사이트 forecast of 바카라사이트se cyclones to be reduced by 40 per cent.

Professor Hunt said that 바카라사이트 "brilliant use and development of statistics has been crucial in 바카라사이트 improvement of public health and medical treatments". Ma바카라사이트matics is also set to have a profound impact on decision making in business.

"I find it quite exciting to note that since business decisions have an essentially probabilistic basis, depending on 바카라사이트 fickle tastes of people, exchange rates and so on, that it should be natural for business and government to accept scientific and ma바카라사이트matical results about inanimate but complex systems in a probabilistic form."

The behaviour of very large systems that are partially deterministic - such as traffic, 바카라사이트 economy and competition between firms - present some of 바카라사이트 biggest challenges for ma바카라사이트matics in 바카라사이트 future. Professor Hunt said that such systems were very poorly formulated as ma바카라사이트matical problems.