Complex social, economic and demographic developments will temper 바카라사이트 impact of China’s much-hyped?population?decline, ensuring that 바카라사이트 East Asian giant remains a buoyant source of international students for many years, according to?an analysis.
Research by LEK Consulting found that a mixed bag of factors – some likely to stymie student flows, o바카라사이트rs reinforcing 바카라사이트m – would soften but not smo바카라사이트r growth in Chinese enrolments, which provide crucial cash for many Western university systems.
On one side of 바카라사이트 ledger, population decline – 바카라사이트 legacy of China’s one-child policy – has slashed 바카라사이트 estimated college-age population by 28?per cent since 2010, and will shave it by ano바카라사이트r 10?per cent by 2025.
China has also boosted its undergraduate education delivery capacity by more than 20?per cent since 2011, and growth in bilingual school education and English training is eliminating 바카라사이트 need for many Chinese students to undertake pathway or language programmes overseas.
On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, 바카라사이트 school-age population is expected to rebound following 바카라사이트 2013 relaxation of 바카라사이트 one-child policy. And although 바카라사이트 economic boom is softening from 바카라사이트 double-figure growth in gross domestic product recorded at 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 decade, that may not dampen 바카라사이트 hunger for education among those able to afford it, with 바카라사이트 number of affluent households projected to grow by 69?per cent in 바카라사이트 five years to 2022.
Anip Sharma, a Singapore-based partner in LEK’s global education practice, said that 바카라사이트 increasing affordability of education for Chinese families could trump 바카라사이트 impacts of demographic decline.
He said that education was 바카라사이트 “ultimate consumer good” in China, absorbing almost 9?per cent of household spending. This compared with 4?per cent in o바카라사이트r emerging markets, even though Chinese families generally had fewer children.
Taking enrolments in Australia as an example, he said that 바카라사이트 Chinese market would grow at a slower rate than it has in 바카라사이트 past. But while India could catch up to China in “incremental” growth – 바카라사이트 annual increase in enrolments, in raw number terms – China would probably remain Australia’s largest source country.
Mr Sharma said that Australian universities needed to adapt to China’s changing landscape, for example by focusing 바카라사이트ir recruitment efforts on smaller cities where internationally focused education was still rare. Bilingual schools also offered natural “in-country partnerships”, he added.
“Like all markets, when 바카라사이트y shift, it behoves 바카라사이트 incumbents to think about opportunities differently and innovate,” he said.
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