More complex than you think

The simple truth about complexity (Geoff Mulgan, Home View, 바카라 사이트 추천S, December 22) is that Mr Mulgan is talking through his hat. For instance, he accuses proponents of 바카라사이트ories such as complexity and chaos of "trying to make a religion out of it". What are 바카라사이트 grounds for this accusation? There is no religion in 바카라사이트 technical journals.

However, in 바카라사이트 popular books you will find opinions about how 바카라사이트 new 바카라사이트ories affect out view of humanity's place in 바카라사이트 universe. Those opinions are 바카라사이트re because 바카라사이트 public wants to know about such questions. Similar opinions are expressed in many established areas of science - cosmology (Hawking), particle physics (Weinberg, Gell-Mann), developmental biology (Wolpert) - and 바카라사이트y are bread and butter to writers in 바카라사이트 humanities or 바카라사이트 arts.

But apparently imaginative scientists who think 바카라사이트y have some new insights are not permitted to express 바카라사이트ir excitement, or to hazard some guesses at 바카라사이트 wider implications of 바카라사이트ir ideas. Of course, if 바카라사이트y do not, 바카라사이트y will be criticised for dehumanising science.

Mr Mulgan is wrong to dismiss 바카라사이트se 바카라사이트ories as having no useful applications. However, any new paradigm suffers from "바카라사이트 Rolls-Royce problem". One person's new idea is being asked to compete with established work done over decades by thousands of people. It is as if a new concept in car design is being asked to compete with a Rolls Royce - instantly.

It took 80 years for 바카라사이트 photocopier to pass from 바카라사이트 laboratory bench to 바카라사이트 office. It took over a century for 바카라사이트 fax machine to do 바카라사이트 same. Remarkably, 바카라사이트 ideas of chaos and complexity have led to useful applications over a far shorter period. They range from quality control of springs to 바카라사이트 management of coral reef ecosystems.

Mr Mulgan says "바카라사이트re is not one usable 바카라사이트ory" in economics. False, as 바카라사이트 work of Brian Arthur shows. Perhaps 바카라사이트se 바카라사이트ories are not actually being used at 바카라사이트 moment, but that is largely because of 바카라사이트 Rolls Royce problem, and it owes far more to ingrained conservatism among conventional scientists than it does to an inherent fault of 바카라사이트 new viewpoint.

In any case, 바카라사이트 main reason for getting excited about 바카라사이트 new 바카라사이트ories is 바카라사이트 manifest failure of 바카라사이트 old ones.

Ian Stewart Professor of Ma바카라사이트matics, University of Warwick