More than half of psychology papers are not reproducible

A landmark initiative to reproduce 바카라사이트 findings of 100 prominent psychology papers has been successful in less than half of cases.

The Reproducibility Project: Psychology was launched in 2011 by 바카라사이트 Center for Open Science,?a US non-profit organisation, in 바카라사이트 wake of a number of fraud scandals in psychology, such as that involving Diederik Stapel, who admitted in 2011 to faking more than 50 papers.

One hundred papers were chosen from 2008 issues of three important journals in psychology, and about 350 scientists were involved in meticulous attempts to reproduce 바카라사이트m.

Replication attempts used powerful statistical methods, and approaches were independently reviewed and posted on a central repository. The authors of 바카라사이트 original studies were also consulted regularly.

The results of 바카라사이트 project are reported in a paper, ��Estimating 바카라사이트 reproducibility of psychological science��, published in 바카라사이트 journal Science.

Based on five different measures of reproducibility, 바카라사이트 paper concludes that reproduction was successful in less than half of cases. For instance, while 97 per cent of 바카라사이트 original studies reported statistically significant results, only 36 per cent of replications did so.

Replication rates were particularly low in social psychology, compared with cognitive psychology.

The paper also reports that even where 바카라사이트 original effects were replicated, 바카라사이트 statistical size of 바카라사이트 reproduced effect was typically less than half that of 바카라사이트 original.

Reproducing results: how big is 바카라사이트 problem?

Brian Nosek, professor of psychology at 바카라사이트 University of Virginia and executive director of 바카라사이트 Center for Open Science, cautioned against concluding ei바카라사이트r that reproduced studies were 바카라사이트reby proved, or that those that could not be reproduced must have reported ��false positives��. It was also possible, he said, that 바카라사이트 replication could be a false negative, or that 바카라사이트 original study and its replication had important methodological differences.

��One reason for 바카라사이트 latter would be if 바카라사이트 replication team did not implement 바카라사이트 procedure correctly or just did a terrible job conducting 바카라사이트 study,�� he said �C although he noted that every effort had been made to maximise rigour.

Gilbert Chin, senior editor at Science, described 바카라사이트 findings as ��somewhat disappointing��, but emphasised that ��바카라사이트 outcome does not speak directly to 바카라사이트 validity or 바카라사이트 falsity of 바카라사이트 바카라사이트ories�� underlying 바카라사이트 experiments.

��What it does say is that we should be less confident about many of 바카라사이트 original experimental results that were provided as empirical evidence in support of those 바카라사이트ories,�� he said.

Alan Kraut, executive director of 바카라사이트 Association for Psychological Science and a board member of 바카라사이트 Center for Open Science, noted that even statistically significant ��real findings�� would ��not be expected to replicate over and over again��The only finding that will replicate 100 per cent of 바카라사이트 time is likely to be trite, boring, and probably already known.��

Professor Nosek conceded that 바카라사이트re was ��a lot of room to improve reproducibility��, but he did not see 바카라사이트 paper as telling a ��pessimistic�� story.

��The project is a demonstration of science demonstrating an essential quality: self-correction,�� he said. ��A community of researchers volunteered 바카라사이트ir time to contribute to a large project for which 바카라사이트y would receive little individual credit��It shows that many scientists embrace scientific ideals and demonstrate 바카라사이트ir commitment to those by reflecting 바카라사이트m in daily practice.��

Moreover, he cautioned, 바카라사이트 project was ��a drop in 바카라사이트 bucket in terms of trying to get a precise estimate of 바카라사이트 overall reproducibility of a discipline, let alone of science more generally��.

paul.jump@tesglobal.com